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The Congress is sponsored by
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Climate Change 2009 The Key Messages from the
Copenhagen Climate Congress
Prof Will Steffen Director ANU Climate Change
Institute Australian National University and Scien
ce Adviser Department of Climate
Change Australian Government
Greenhouse Frontiers, 1 April 2009
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(No Transcript)
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About the Congress
Requested by the Danish Government in their role
as host nation for COP-15 in December 2009 Aim
was to update climate change science since the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and to present
other climate- related research (e.g., economics,
energy technologies systems, ethics) Organised
by Copenhagen University and its partners in
the International Alliance of Research
Universities (IARU) - ANU, California-Berkeley,
Cambridge, ETH-Zurich, National University of
Singapore, Oxford, Peking, Tokyo, Yale
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About the Congress

• 2,500 participants - researchers, policymakers,
  government
• officials, media - from about 80 countries
• 13 plenary presentations, 58 parallel sessions
  with both oral
• poster presentations, final panel discussion with
  Danish PM -
• 1600 presentations in total
• Six overarching themes
• Exploring the Risks Understanding Climate
  Change
• Sharing the Burdens and Opportunities Equity
  Issues
• Reducing the Risks of Climate Change
  Opportunities for Mitigation
• Preparing for Impacts Adapting to the
  Inevitable
• Managing the Planet
• Mobilising the Populace Human Dimensions of
  Climate Change

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Key Messages from the Congress
1. Climatic trends - urgency 2. Social
disruption - defining dangerous climate
change 3. Long-term strategy - targets and
trajectories 4. Equity dimensions - climate
change is unfair 5. Inaction is inexcusable -
tools and approaches 6. Meeting the challenge -
societal transformation
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Key Message 1 Climatic Trends

• Recent observations confirm that, given high
  rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC
  scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being
  realised. For many key parameters, the climate
  system is already moving beyond the patterns of
  natural variability within which our society and
  economy have developed and thrived. These
  parameters include global mean surface
  temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet
  dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme
  climatic events. There is a significant risk that
  many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an
  increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible
  climatic shifts.

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Past sea level vs. temperature
Source S. Rahmstorf
(WBGU, after Archer 2006)
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Contributions to sea level rise
For 1961-2003 1.6 mm/yr (Source Domingues et
al., Nature 2008)

• Thermal expansion (ca. 40 )
• Glaciers and ice caps (ca. 35 )
• Continental ice sheets (ca. 25 )

For 2003-2008 2.5 mm/yr (Source Cazenave et
al., GPC 2008)
Thermal expansion (ca. 20) Glaciers and ice caps
(ca. 40 ) Continental ice sheets (ca. 40 )
Source S. Rahmstorf
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Future projections
Future sea level (rel. to 1990) based on IPCC AR4
global temperature projections Full range 75
190 cm by 2100
constant rate 3.2 mm/year
Vermeer Rahmstorf, submitted
Source S. Rahmstorf
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Conclusions

• Sea level rise may well exceed one meter by 2100
  if emissions continue unabated.
• Even the best case scenario (between 0.5 and 1.0
  m by 2100) will hit low-lying coastal areas hard,
  affecting 10 of human population. Coastal
  flooding events that we expect only once every
  hundred years will happen several times a year by
  2100.
• Long-term sea-level rise over several centuries
  likely to be several meters, consistent with
  palaeoclimate experience.
• The ice loss in Greenland has accelerated over
  the last decade. Greenland and Antarctica are
  contributing more and faster to sea-level rise
  than anticipated.

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The Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
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7.6
fossil fuel emissions
Source
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1.5
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
deforestation
atmosphere
4.1
Sink
land
land
2.8
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ocean
ocean
2.2
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1850
2000
1950
1900
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished Canadell et al. 2007,
PNAS Global Carbon Project
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Decline in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink
Credit N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic
cruise OISO-5
Primary cause is a 30 decrease in efficiency of
Southern Ocean sink. This is probably due to
stronger winds around Antarctica, which
enhances ventilation of carbon-rich deep
waters. Stronger winds are due to climate change
and the ozone hole.
Relative sink strength, in fraction of emissions
Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science Global Carbon
Project
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Ranking of Forcings Feedbacks on Climate
Unabated human emissions of CO2 2.4-4.6
oC Release of aerosol brake 0.5-1.5
oC Weakening land and ocean sinks 0.1-1.5
oC Release of carbon from tropical
peatlands 0.1-0.2 oC Release of CH4 from frozen
soils (permafrost) 0.1-2.0 oC
Source M.R. Raupach
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Key Message 2 Social disruption

• The research community is providing much more
  information to support discussions on dangerous
  climate change. Recent observations show that
  societies are highly vulnerable to even modest
  levels of climate change, with poor nations and
  communities particularly at risk. Temperature
  rises above 2oC will be very difficult for
  contemporary societies to cope with, and will
  increase the level of climate disruption through
  the rest of the century.

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Updated Reasons for Concern
EU 2C-Guardrail
(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)
Source H.J. Schellnhuber
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Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangers water
resources (Kehrwald et al. 2008 Geophys Res Lett)
Source H.J. Schellnhuber
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Source H.J. Schellnhuber
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Key Message 3 Long-Term Strategy

• Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation
  based on coordinated global and regional action
  is required to avoid dangerous climate change
  regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets
  for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping
  points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets
  more difficult. Delay in initiating effective
  mitigation actions increases significantly the
  long-term social and economic costs of both
  adaptation and mitigation.

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Regional modelling comparison project within ADAM

• Model comparison with five energy-economy models
• Baseline scenario no climate policy
• 3 stabilisation targets with different
  probabilities to reach the 2 goal 550ppm-eq,
  450ppm-eq, 400ppm-eq

baseline
negative emissions
Source H.J. Schellnhuber
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Quotes from Lord Nicholas Stern
Business-as-usual is dead This is an
externality like none other Risks, scales and
uncertainties are enormous a big probability
of a devastating outcome We have to look at
non-marginal changes in economics
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Key Message 4 Equity Dimensions

• Climate change is having, and will have,
  strongly differential effects on people within
  and between countries and regions, on this
  generation and future generations, and on human
  societies and the natural world. An effective,
  well-funded adaptation safety net is required for
  those people least capable of coping with climate
  change impacts, and a common but differentiated
  mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor
  and most vulnerable.

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Equity Issues Food Security
Weekly Food Supply
Equity Issues Human Health
The poor, the marginal, the uneducated and the
geographically vulnerable suffer the greatest
risks. Risks are projected to be much greater
for future generations than for the current
generation Source A.J. McMichael
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Emissions The Stocks and Flows Problem
100
D3-Least Developed Countries
80
D2-Developing Countries
60
India
40
China
FSU
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D1-Developed Countries
Japan
EU
0
USA
Cumulative Emissions 1751-2004
Flux in 2004
Flux Growth in 2004
Population in 2004
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
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Key Message 5 Inaction is Inexcusable

• There is no excuse for inaction. We already
  have many tools and approaches economic,
  technological, behavioural, management to deal
  effectively with the climate change challenge.
  But they must be vigorously and widely
  implemented to achieve the societal
  transformation required to decarbonise economies.
  A wide range of benefits will flow from a
  concerted effort to alter our energy economy now,
  including sustainable energy job growth,
  reductions in the health and economic costs of
  climate change, and the restoration of ecosystems
  and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

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Solar Energy for Diverse Applications
Moscone Center, SF 675,000 W
Residential Solar 1000 - 4000 Watts/home
Kenyan PV market Largest penetration rate of
any nation
2009 3,000 MW of solar wind 2010 20,000 MW of
solar wind
Source D. Kammen
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Source H.J. Schellnhuber
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Economics Tools and Approaches
Vigorous discussion/debate on cap-and-trade (ETS)
systems v. carbon tax Virtually universal
agreement on need for a price on carbon - many
figures discussed but a value of USD 100/tonne C
or higher was often mentioned. Aim is to trigger
transformation rather than add marginal cost to
existing industries Lessons from the global
financial crisis - need firewalls
between national systems Transformation to low
or no-carbon energy sources can
give sustainability of supply, increase in
employment and stable growth of economy
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Adapting to the Inevitable
Costs of adapting to climate change are likely to
be much higher than current estimates - enhances
economic viability of higher mitigation
targets Urgent need to accelerate adaptation in
urban areas - the challenge of climate change
will be won or lost in the cities Climate
change is one of a broader suite of issues
associated with global sustainability. Need to
integrate mitigation and adaptation approaches,
and need to integrate climate change with other
facets of sustainability (e.g., biodiversity
conservation). For developing countries, need to
integrate climate adaptation into the development
agenda.
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Key Message 6 Meeting the Challenge

• To achieve the societal transformation
  required to meet the climate change challenge, we
  must overcome a number of significant constraints
  and seize critical opportunities. These include
  reducing inertia in social and economic systems
  building on a growing public desire for
  governments to act on climate change removing
  implicit and explicit subsidies reducing the
  influence of vested interests that increase
  emissions and reduce resilience enabling the
  shifts from ineffective governance and weak
  institutions to innovative leadership in
  government, the private sector and civil society
  and engaging society in the transition to norms
  and practices that foster sustainability.

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Climate Change - the Human Dimensions
Need to foster open, democratic decision-making
processes Major constraint to dealing with
climate change is lack of credible, authoritative
information. Questioning of the role of media
in reporting on the climate change
issue Ultimately, values, ethics and belief
systems influence how individuals, communities
and societies respond to climate change
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The political process in adaptive governance
Predicting the exact course of global warming is
a thankless task. Much more feasible and useful
is generating alternative policies which can be
introduced at appropriate times for slowing the
warming, adapting to its unfavorable effects
and taking advantage of favorable effects. In
our politicians, we should penalize only doing
nothing.
Source Prof Amanda Lynch
Herb Simon, 1996
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Research meets Politics Debating the key
messages with the Danish PM
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Road to COP-15 Next Steps
Synthesis report to be produced by early June
(i) ca. 30 pages, with figures (ii) produced in
bottom-up fashion (based on summaries from chairs
of the 58 sessions) by a small writing team
(iii) heavily reviewed by IARU experts
international panel from ESSP (Earth System
Science Partnership) Writing team Katherine
Richardson (Chair), Copenhagen Joe Alcamo, UNEP
Terry Barker, Cambridge Bagis Elasha, Env
Council - Sudan Dan Kammen,Cal-Berkeley Rik
Leemans, ESSP Diana Liverman, Oxford Mohan
Munasinghe, Sri Lanka/IPCC John Schellnhuber,
PIK Will Steffen, ANU Ole Waever,
Copenhagen Synthesis report will be handed over
to all participants in the COP-15 by the Danish
Government. The synthesis report will be backed
up by a full-length academic book, to be
published in 2010 by Cambridge University Press.
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The Congress is sponsored by