Contributions to Natural Disaster Reduction and Risk Assessments

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Contributions toNatural Disaster Reduction and
Risk Assessments

• Steven R. Shafer
• National Program Leader
• Global Change Research

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Risk Assessment andRisk Management in USDA

• Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
• Forest Service
• Natural Resources Conservation Service
• Food Safety Inspection Service
• Risk Management Agency
• Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit
  Analysis
• Agricultural Research Service

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Research on Risk Assessment and Risk Management
in USDA-ARS

• Biotechnology
• Watershed Flood Control
• Global Change
• Fire Suppression
• Others

www.ars.usda.gov
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Watershed Flood Control Projects under The
Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act of
1954
Authorized 1,613 watershed projects to date, all
50 states, involving 109 million acres and 6,300
flood control dams
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Watershed Flood Control

• USDA program assistance to local communites
• 14 B, 10,000 structures
• 1 B in benefits yearly

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Research on Watershed Flood Control

• Technology for predicting performance during
  extreme events
• Design criteria for upgrading structures to meet
  modern safety and performance standards
• Improved procedures for estimating sediment
  loading
• Improved procedures for evaluating the impact of
  structure installation, modification, or
  decommissioning
• Evaluation of hydraulic performance, structure
  modification, site-specific problems

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Flood control research accomplishments
Design criteria for structures and practices that
dissipate energy, stabilize channels, and control
sedimantation
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Effective use of vegetation to control
sedimentation and flooding
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Not disputed Agriculture exists in an
ever-changing environment

• Changes in land use
• Weather and climate variability
• Increasing atmospheric CO2
• Changing interactions of crops with weeds,
  pests, pathogens
• Increases and decreases in soil carbon, with
  associated broad environmental implications

How can agriculture adapt to these constant
changes more effectively, and how can it
contribute to mitigating environmental changes?
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Integrate NOAA Climate Forecasts into Risk-Based
Production Management and Resources Conservation
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Response of Crops to Elevated CO2 at Low and High
O3 Concentrations
250
High O3
200
Wheat
Relative Yield ()
150
Soybean
Cotton
100
Low O3
50
360
540
720
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
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