Projections of the adult educational attainment

1
Projections of the adult educational attainment

• Anne Goujon (Anne.Goujon_at_oeaw.ac.at)
• Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Vienna,
  Austria
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

2
The translation of enrollment rates into future
educational attainment
Illiterate
Literate
3
The translation of enrollment rates into future
educational attainment
Policy
Illiterate
Literate
4
The translation of enrollment rates into future
educational attainment
Illiterate
Literate
5
The translation of enrollment rates into future
educational attainment
When?
Illiterate
Literate
6
The translation of enrollment rates into future
educational attainment
When?
Not before 2060
Illiterate
Literate
7
Window of opportunity? Only if there is an
investment in human capital

• Education like population has a large momentum a
  policy implemented today e.g. to increase intake
  rate in primary to 100 , will take almost 60
  years to reach the whole labor force.
• The education momentum adds to the population
  momentum as to the flows of children who will
  have to go through education.

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Three examples Guinea, Zambia, and Nicaragua
Guinea
Zambia
Nicaragua
9
Three examples Guinea, Zambia, and
NicaraguaMain characteristics

• Guinea
• Very weak levels of education 60 of men and
  76 of women had not received any education in
  1999.
• High levels of fertility Total Fertility Rate in
  1999 is 5.5 children.
• Fertility is declining slowly from 5.8 in 1983 to
  5.5 in 1999 Huge population momentum

10
Three examples Guinea, Zambia, and
NicaraguaMain characteristics

• Zambia
• Weak levels of education Few people with no
  education at all (18 for men and 25 for women)
  but 40 to 45 with incomplete primary.
• High levels of fertility Total Fertility Rate in
  2001 is 5.9 children.
• High HIV prevalence 13 of men and 16 of women
  (both in age-group 15-49).

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Three examples Guinea, Zambia, and
NicaraguaMain characteristics

• Nicaragua
• Medium levels of education population equally
  shared between 4 groups (no education, 1-3 years
  primary, 4-6 years primary, and secondary).
• Medium levels of fertility Total Fertility Rate
  in 2001 is 3.2 children.
• Fertility is declining very quickly.

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Fertility and education
13
Fertility and education
14
Child mortality (5q0) and education
15
Modern contraceptive use and education
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Projection Methodology

• Multi-state population projection.
• Four levels of educational attainment no
  education, primary, secondary and higher
• System is dynamic through three pairs of
  transition rates
• Education differentials in fertility, child
  mortality, and migration.
• Follow the demographic assumptions of United
  Nations 2002 (World Population Prospects) for
  total fertility, life expectancy and net
  migration to 2030.

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Scenario Definition up to 2030

• One demographic scenario POP scenario central
  fertility, central mortality, central migration
  (from UN, 2002) combined with 3 education
  scenarios
• Scenario Constant Education ( with 2000
  transition rates)
• Scenario Trend follow the trend - increase
  observed between cohorts
• Scenario Millennium Development Goal (MDG)
  implements education objectives of the Millennium
  Development Goals.
• Eradicating illiteracy
• Promote female schooling

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Age and education pyramids for Guinea in 2000 (in
thousand)
2000
Male
Female
19
Age and education pyramids for Guinea in 2000 and
2030 according to Constant scenario (in
thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Constant
Male
Female
Male
Female
20
Age and education pyramids for Guinea in 2000 and
2030 according to Trend scenario (in thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Trend
Male
Female
Male
Female
21
Age and education pyramids for Guinea in 2000,
2015 and 2030 according to MDG scenario (in
thousand)
Scenario MDG
Male
Female
2000
Male
Female
2015
Male
Female
2030
22
Age and education pyramids for Zambia in 2000 (in
thousand)
2000
Male
Female
23
Age and education pyramids for Zambia in 2000 and
2030 according to Constant scenario (in
thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Constant
Male
Female
Male
Female
24
Age and education pyramids for Zambia in 2000 and
2030 according to Trend scenario (in thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Trend
Male
Female
Male
Female
25
Age and education pyramids for Zambia in 2000,
2015 and 2030 according to MDG scenario (in
thousand)
Scenario MDG
Male
Female
2000
Male
Female
2015
Male
Female
2030
26
Age and education pyramids for Nicaragua in 2000
(in thousand)
2000
Male
Female
27
Age and education pyramids for Nicaragua in 2000
and 2030 according to Constant scenario (in
thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Constant
Male
Female
Male
Female
28
Age and education pyramids for Nicaragua in 2000
and 2030 according to Trend scenario (in
thousand)
2000
2030 Scenario Trend
Male
Female
Male
Female
29
Age and education pyramids for Nicaragua in 2000,
2015 and 2030 according to MDG scenario (in
thousand)
Scenario MDG
Male
Female
2000
Male
Female
2015
Male
Female
2030
30
Total population 15 without education in Guinea,
2000-2030, according to Constant, Trend, and MDG
scenarios
Absolute
Proportion
31
Total population 15 without education in Zambia,
2000-2030, according to Constant, Trend, and MDG
scenarios
Absolute
Proportion
32
Total population 15 without education in
Nicaragua, 2000-2030, according to Constant,
Trend, and MDG scenarios
Absolute
Proportion
33
Proportion women 15 by level of education in
Guinea, 2000, 2015, and 2030, according to MDG
scenario
Gender equity
34
Proportion women 15 by level of education in
Zambia, 2000, 2015, and 2030, according to MDG
scenario
Gender equity
35
Proportion women 15 by level of education in
Nicaragua, 2000, 2015, and 2030, according to MDG
scenario
Gender equity
36
Conclusions

• For those countries where levels of education are
  low in 2000, there are very little chance of
  rapid increase in levels of educational
  attainment by 2030. There will be an increasing
  importance of adult educational campaigns.
• This information is key if one is to plan the
  demographic and economic future of these
  countries. Education will shape many demographic
  and other features of the country
• Mortality (child,mother, adult, AIDS-HIV) and
  morbidity
• Fertility, use of family planning, family size
  preferences
• Labor force participation, per capita economic
  output