Fisheries Ecosystem Models: Technical Details and Prospects for Partnerships

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Fisheries Ecosystem Models Technical Details and
Prospects for Partnerships

• Howard Townsend, Ph.D.
• NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office (NMFS)
• - Cooperative Oxford Lab (NOS/NCCOS)
• January 15, 2008

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"It was the Law of the Sea, they said.
Civilization ends at the waterline. Beyond that,
we all enter the food chain, and not always right
at the top."

• -Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

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Presentation Outline

• Introduction
• Chesapeake Bay Fisheries Ecosystem Model
• NOAA/NMFS Ecosystem Modeling and International
  Efforts
• NEMoW
• UN Reports
• Technical Details (Major Models/Model
  Types/Software)
• Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
• Atlantis
• Gadget
• Opportunities for Partnerships
• NEMoW Members
• Plans for future NEMoW

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CB Fisheries Ecosystem Model

• Developed in cooperation between NOAA CBO/Oxford,
  CRC, UBC with support from many bay researchers
  using Ecopath with Ecosim software (code base)
• A companion to the CB Fisheries Ecosystem Plan
• Technical report (230 p) completed/in review
• Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
• 45 functional groups
• Replicates ecosystem history 1950 present

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Inputs and Links to EwE
Ecopath
Monitoring Stock assessment Literature CBREEM
Input
Ecosim
Mediation Forcing
Management scenarios
Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO)
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Chesapeake Bay Regional Estuarine Ecology Model
(CBREEM)

• Purpose
• Generate historical patterns in primary
  productivity for EwE
• Introduction Methods
• Two layer, simple hydrographic model (monthly
  time steps for 50 years)
• Use wind, rainfall, gage inflow, and relative
  loading as inputs
• Solve for equilibrium velocity fields on
  Richardson grids and make chemical mass-balanced
  calculations (Wright et al. 1986, Hunter and
  Hearn 1991)
• Results
• Chla (used as nutrient loading forcing function
  for EwE)

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Forcing Data (Input) for CBREEM

• Wind
• Thomas Point, Maryland (TPLM2, 1985-2002, NOAA
  National Buoy Data Center) and trigonometric
  functions (1950-1985)
• Rainfall
• Monthly average from ten stations (1950-1997,
  NOAA National Climate Data Center) and a
  reference index in Washington D.C. (1998-2002)
• Gage inflow
• Nine gauged rivers (USGS)
• Relative loading (Nitrogen)
• 1984 to 2003 from monitoring (average 0.9126
  mg/l)
• Susquehanna river (1945-1984) from Dr. Hagy
• Other eight rivers (1945-1984) monthly average
  from 1984 to 2003

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Model Interface
Chla
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Summary
Monitoring Stock assessment Literature CBREEM
Ecopath
Input
Ecosim
Mediation Forcing
Management scenarios
Menhaden B changes under different SB Fs
Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO)
DO data (1985-2006)
Long-term forcing function Sij
Habitat mediation for blue crab YOY via SAV
Physical forcing through DO for striped bass
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CBFEM Plans

• Applications
• Support development of ecosystem-based fisheries
  management plan
• Tool for exploring ecosystem impacts of fisheries
  management decisions in developing EBFM
• Provide guidance in identifying research,
  monitoring and assessment needs
• Development
• Review of current model data (basic input,
  drivers, and validation) guided by EMTAP under
  the purview of FSC
• Improve data and ensure we have adequately mined
  data (Maddy)
• Link FEM with Water Quality and other
  physico-chemical models (Hongguang)
• Explore other ecological, climatological, etc.
  impacts on the Chesapeake fisheries ecosystem
• The ultimate goal is to use CBFEM (and other
  ecosystem management models) in a process similar
  to single species stock assessment models. The
  CBFEM will be developed, reviewed, applied and
  updated on a regular cycle with oversight from a
  technical committee.

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NOAA/NMFS and International Ecosystem Modeling
Efforts
Fisheries Ecosystem Modeling is new and needs
regulatory/management foundations
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NOAA Ecosystem Modeling Team

• Funding NEMoW
• National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop
• Approved and Sponsored by NMFS Science Advisory
  Board Meeting
• 1st meeting August 2007 to exchange ideas on
  approaches and develop best practices for
  fisheries ecosystem/multi-species models
• A national workshop to standardize methodologies
  and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical
  and multispecies models
• Responsive to a wide range of calls for
  EAM/EAF/IEA/etc.

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Why NEMOW?

• There have been only limited and ad hoc efforts
  to provide a standardized approach for Eco/MS
  models
• software packages
• recommendations for use
• parameterization protocols
• validation protocols
• data requirements

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Gradient of Possibilities
Stock/Single Species
Ecosystem
Multi-species
Aggregate Biomass
Messy Picture Here
Gadids
Pelagics
Flatfish
SS models, forget ecosystem issues
Whole System Models, forget pop dy
Multi-species assessments
Aggregate Biomass Models
SS assessments with explicit M2 or habitat or
climate considerations
Multiple SS assessments in harmony
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What NEMoW Products

• Workshop Report
• Howard Townsend, Jason Link, Kenric Osgood, Todd
  Gedamke, George Watters, Jeff Polovina, Phil
  Levin, Ned Cyr, and Kerim Aydin. 2008
  (Submitted). Report on NOAA National Ecosystem
  Modeling Workshop. NOAA/NMFS Technical
  Memorandum)
• Evaluation of Models
• Recommendations for National EM
  Standards/Guidelines of use review
• Recommendations for Standardized Approaches

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International Efforts

• United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
• Report on Classes/Categories and uses of
  Ecosystem Models for Fisheries (out Aug 2007)
  Reference Plagányi 2007. Models for an Ecosystem
  Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical
  paper 477 ?
• Report of Modelling Ecosystem Interactions for
  Informing an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries
  Best Practices in Ecosystem Modeling, Tivoli,
  July 3-6, 2007 (out soon)

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Conclusions from External Efforts

• Ecosystem Models and Management Advice
• Conceptual/understanding of the structure,
  functioning and interactions of the ecosystem, or
  sub-system, under consideration. May not be used
  explicitly in decision-making or scientific
  advice but forms the underlying context for any
  detailed management planning and decision-making
• Strategic decisions linked to policy goals and
  are generally long-range, broadly-based and
  inherently adaptable
• Tactical decisions aimed at the short-term (e.g.
  next 3-5 years), linked to an operational
  objective and in the form of a rigid set of
  instructions e.g. tactical decision to change
  quota
• Model types
• Whole ecosystem models models that attempt to
  take into account all trophic levels in the
  ecosystem
• Minimum Realistic Models (MRM) limited number of
  species most likely to have important
  interactions with a target species of interest
• Dynamic System Models (Biophysical) represent
  both bottom-up (physical) and top-down
  (biological) forces interacting in an ecosystem
• Extensions of single-species assessment models
  (ESAM) expand on current single-species
  assessment models taking only a few additional
  inter-specific interactions into account

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Conclusions from NMFS International Efforts
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Technical Details (Major Models/Model
Types/Software)

• EwE, Atlantis, and Gadget

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EwE An Overview
Data
Model
Research
Application
Manual
Who eats whom? Network analysis
Biol. B, P/B, Q/B, diet. Fleet catches
Mass-balance (Ecopath)
Ecoranger
Academic (ecol. theory)
Automatic
Functionalresponse, etc.
Seaso-nality
Sensitivity analysis
Pedigree ? M.Carlo
Economics, social info.
Policy exploration
Fisheries vs. environment
Time-dynamic (Ecosim)
Vulnerability, mediation,
Biol. fishing time series
Fisheriesmanagement
Tracer- dynamic (Ecotrace)
Environmental time series
Persistent pollutants
Protected area dynamics. Spatial effort
allocation
Ocean zoning
Habitat preference, dispersal, migration etc.
Spatial-dynamic (Ecospace)
Spatial cost of fishing
Nutrient-O2 seagrass,
MPA size (Ecoseed)
Prim.prod.(SeaWIFS)
Runoff, nutri-ents, depth,
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EwE - Simpler Overview

• ECOPATH
• Began with Polovina 1984, updated by Christensen
  and Pauly (early 1990s) - statistics added until
  current (year 2000) version. But basic equations
  are unchanged (and well-examined) for over 10
  years.
• ECOSIM (and ECOSPACE)
• Recent work to make a food web dynamic, theory
  and practice new (some is un-reviewed with ad-hoc
  corrections).
• Designed for quick running and exploring policy
  scenarios
• Strengths
• Unified format is strength
• Recent re-programming (Visual Basic 6? .NET)
  October 2007
• Allows easier access to code and
• Facilitates 2-way model coupling
  (interoperability)
• Enhanced visualization
• Developers are creating basic database-driven
  models of all LMEs

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Practical Application of EwE Ecosystem Trophic
Modeling

• Ecopath is used to organize data (esp.
  historical) on trophic interactions and
  population sizes. Has routines for entry of key
  data on the biology and exploitation of ecosystem
  groups, and for creating a mass-balance
  snapshot of an ecosystem.
• Ecosim builds dynamic predictions by combining
  the data with foraging arena theory. Provides
  dynamic simulation of effect changes in fishing
  or environmental regimes may have on fisheries
  catches (volume and value) and the abundance of
  various groups in the ecosystem.
• Ecospace for addressing spatial policy questions,
  esp. marine protected areas.
• Ecotrace for exploring ecosystem effects of
  persistent pollutants

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What are the strengths of EwE model approach?

• Ecosim is freely available, large user community
• Improved understanding of data systems (multiple
  agency, multiple scale data assimilation)
• Functional response parameterization is very
  flexible, much more advanced than many published
  forms
• Simulates a wide variety of fishing scenarios,
  including spatial management in Ecospace
• Simulates changes in production regimes
• Ability to represent age structure for many
  groups
• Biomass dynamics of whole ecosystem considered,
  see both direct effects and side effects of
  scenarios
• Broad user-group

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Atlantis (code base)

• Ecosystem models can improve our understanding of
  interactions between species, climate, fishing,
  and habitat.
• The Atlantis ecosystem model (Fulton et al. 2004)
  is a strategic tool used to1. synthesize this
  information 2. simulate possible ecosystem
  responses3. identify key processes that govern
  ecosystem condition
• Atlantis is programmed in C and is freely
  available (and become increasingly
  well-documented)

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3-dimensional structure of model
Daily oceanographic fluxes (water, heat,
salt) into and out of each box are controlled by
a ROMS oceanographic model
Biogeochemistry
Hydrographic submodel
Climate and oceanography
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Uses for Atlantis Management Strategy Evaluation
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Atlantis Pros Cons

• Pros
• Flexible options for predation, reproduction,
  growth, gape limitation
• MSE (monitoring, assessments, indicators,
  economics, management)
• Nutrient handling, and interfaces with ROMS
  oceanography output (and other hydrodynamics
  model output)
• Migrations out of region

• Cons
• Build time (6-12 months)
• Run time (hours- days)
• Lacks balancing routines
• Cumbersome parameterization

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GADGET

• Forward simulation model
• Create a virtual population within the model
• Follow the fish through their lives
• Fishing, mortality, growth, maturation, etc.
• Process driven
• E.g. percentage becoming mature, not percentage
  mature at age

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GADGET - Software

• Written in C
• Can be run under UNIX/Linux and PC (using cygwin)
• Source code has to be downloaded, and then
  compiled on local computer
• Code has been used for many years well tested
• Documentation and examples available on-line
• Graphics not included in package only numerical
  output
• Further development of code not decided at the
  moment main programmers have got new jobs

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Gadget - Strengths

• Flexible tool
• May integrate a wide variety of information on
  different resolution (biological/spatial/temporal)
  
• Model and data independent
• Well documented
• Suitable for modelling systems with a few main
  species/interactions (e.g. boreal ecosystems)
• Age data not needed
• Gaps in data/knowledge may be identified no
  hidden assumptions

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Opportunities for Parterships

• NEMoW Steering Committee,
• Current Software Developers

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Potential Partners in NEMoW (NMFS)

• NEMoW Steering Committee (NMFS)
• Jason Link Northeast FSC
• Howard Townsend NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
• Kerim Aydin Alaska FSC
• Ned Cyr Office of Science Technology
• Kenric Osgood Office of Science Technology
• Todd Gedamke Southeast FSC
• Jeff Polovina Pacific Islands FSC
• Phil Levin Northwest FSC
• George Watters Southwest FSC
• NEMoW Web Site
• http//www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st7/nemow.htm

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Potential Partners for Software Development

• Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
• Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia
  Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia
• Atlantis
• Beth Fulton, Commonwealth Scientific and
  Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart,
  Tasmania
• GADGET - Globally applicable Area Disaggregated
  General Ecosystem Toolbox, www.hafro.is/gadget
• Bjarte Bogstad, Institute of Marine Research,
  Bergen, Norway