Prospects of the Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil: Impacts on Land Use Allocation and Changes

1
Prospects of the Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil
Impacts on Land Use Allocation and Changes

• André Meloni Nassar (ICONE)
• Bernardo F. T. Rudorff (INPE)
• Laura Barcellos Antoniazzi (ICONE)
• Daniel Alves de Aguiar (INPE)
• Miriam Rumenos Piedade Bacchi (CEPEA)
• Marcos Adami (INPE)

2
Overview

• Objectives
• Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil
• Methodology
  3.1 Remote sensing images
  3.2 Microregional secondary data
  3.3 Case studies through environmental
  licensing reports
  3.4 Projection Model
• Results and discussions
• Conclusions

3
Objectives

• To evaluate direct changes of land use caused by
  the sugarcane expansion in Brazil.
• Past and future expansion are analyzed
• LUC is measured in terms of other land uses area
  displaced by the sugarcane area expansion.
• To assess the sugarcane expansion under the
  indirect LUC approach.
• Effect-cause relations between sugarcane
  expansion and crops and pastures expansion
• Comparison of areas displaced by the sugarcane
  expansion and the net growth of land allocated to
  crops and pasture.

4
The Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil
5
Agricultural Land use in Brazil(Agricultural
census)
P Preliminary
Source IBGE
6
Overview of Sugarcane in Brazil
7
Brazilian Biomes and States
AP
RR
AP
AP
AM
AM
MA
MA
CE
CE
PA
PA
RN
RN
PB
PB
PE
PE
PI
AC
PI
AC
AL
AL
TO
TO
MT
RO
MT
RO
SE
SE
BA
BA
GO
GO
MG
MG
MS
ES
MS
ES
Amazon Forest
SP
RJ
SP
RJ
Atlantic Forest
PR
PR
Savanna
Steppe
SC
SC
Pantanal wetland
South Grassland
RS
RS
8
Brazilian Biomes and Legal Reserve(preservation
rate)
CE
RN
PB
PE
PI
AL
SE
BA
GO
MG
MS
ES
Amazon Forest
Legal reserve 20
SP
RJ
Atlantic Forest
PR
Savanna
Steppe
SC
Pantanal wetland
South Grassland
RS
9
Brazilian Biomes and Legal Reserve(preservation
rate)
Legal reserve 35
MA
TO
MT
Amazon Forest
Atlantic Forest
Savanna
Steppe
Pantanal wetland
South Grassland
10
Brazilian Biomes and Legal Reserve(preservation
rate)
AP
AP
Legal reserve 80
AM
MA
PA
AC
MT
RO
Amazon Forest
Atlantic Forest
Savanna
Steppe
Pantanal wetland
South Grassland
11
South-Central Region Spatial Distribution of
Sugarcane Crop in 2007
Source INPE (www.dsr.inpe.br/canasat/).
12
Sugarcane Planted Area According to Production
Regions, 2005 to 2008(1,000 ha)
Notes (1) Source Canasat/INPE, comprising São
Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso
and Mato Grosso do Sul. (2) Sources PAM/IBGE
(2005 and 2006) LSPA/IBGE (2007 and 2008).
13
Sugarcane Planted Area in Brazilian States, 2005
to 2008(1,000 ha)
Sources Canasat/INPE LSPA/IBGE and PAM/IBGE.
14
Methodology
15
Methodology

• Past Trend
• Mapping sugarcane expansion using remote sensing
  from the Canasat Project (www.dsr.inpe.br/canasat)
  .
• Displacement measured in an yearly basis and
  using planted area.
• Micro-regional secondary data, using adapted
  Shift-share model.
• Displacement measured as the absolute variation
  of the harvested area.
• Case studies through environmental licensing
  reports.
• Future Trend
• Partial equilibrium model to project land
  allocation for agricultural activities in a
  macro-regional level
• Adapted Shift-share to breakdown macro-regional
  projections in micro-regional data.
• Projections based on harvested areas.

16
Sugarcane Area in Brazil Available Data
17
Remote Sensing Analysis Classes of Land Use and
Occupation Identified Prior to the Sugarcane
Source INPE (www.dsr.inpe.br/canasat/). Notes
March of 2003 (date 1), May of 2003 (date 2) and
April of 2008 (date 3).
18
Micro-regional Secondary Data Analysis
Categories Used to Classify Land Use Dynamics
Note adapted from the shift-share methodology
(Oliveira et al., 2008).
19
Assumptions for Projections Regional Land
Competition Matrix
20
Results for Direct Land Use Changes
21
Land Use Classes Converted to Sugarcane Compared
Results in the South-Central Region (1,000 ha)
Source (1) Secondary data from IBGE (2)
Satellite images (3) Projection model (4) 3
percent of the total agricultural expansion.
22
Remote SensingSouth-Central Region Land Use
Classes Converted to Sugarcane, 2007 and 2008
(1,000 ha)
23
Remote SensingSouth-Central States Land Use
Classes Converted to Sugarcane, 2007 and 2008
(1,000 ha)
261
229
205
134
56
1,299
Sugarcane total expansion
24
Remote SensingSão Paulo State Land Use Classes
Converted to Sugarcane, 2005 to 2008 (1,000 ha)
206
306
637
662
1,810
Sugarcane total expansion
25
Secondary DataExpanded South-Central Region
Land Use Classes Allocated to Sugarcane, 2002 to
2006 (1,000 ha)
(1) n.a. (not allocated) means not allocated
over previous productive area.
26
Projections 2008 2018 Evolution of sugarcane,
grains and pasture area in agricultural regions
(1,000 ha)
27
Projections 2008 2018Evolution of sugarcane,
Grains and Pasture Area in South-Central and
Amazon Biome Regions (1,000 ha)
28
Projections 2008 2018South-Centre Expected
Land Allocation for Sugarcane, Crops and
Pastures(1,000 ha and heads)
Grains soybean, corn, cotton, rice and dry beans.
29
Projections 2008 - 2018South-Central Region
Land Use Classes Converted to Sugarcane (1,000 ha)
(1) n.a. (not allocated) means not allocated
over previous productive area.
30
Results for Indirect Land Use Changes
31
Net Growth of Agricultural Land Uses Area and
Cattle Herd, 2002-06 (1,000 ha and heads)
Source PAM/IBGE, Agricultural Census/IBGE and
PPM/IBGE.
32
Conclusions

• Direct land use change
• There is no significant sugarcane effect on
  natural landscapes, considering all methods used.
  Sugarcane has been expanding over anthropized
  areas.
• Methods presented different participation of
  crops and pasture in displacement areas
• Satellite images more importance for crops.
• Secondary data, case studies and projections
  more importance of pastures.

33
Conclusions

• Indirect land use change
• Sugarcane expansion is not linked to crops and
  pasture expansion (agriculture is expanding
  despite of sugarcane)
• New areas of crops and pasture are larger than
  sugarcanes and have their own dynamics.
• Yield improvements contribute to offset
  displacement caused by sugarcane expansion.
• It is possible to assume that sugarcane expansion
  may cause indirect effect but it is not possible
  to measure it.