Baby Boomers The Next Financial Storm

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Baby Boomers The Next Financial Storm

• AAHAM Buccaneer Chapter
• Fall Conference
• October 19. 2006

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The Baby Boomers
1964
1946
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Retiring Baby Boomers will undoubtedly impact
you.

• Higher volumes
• More uninsured
• Expensive insurance ages 50-64
• Fewer company paid pensions
• More Hispanic growth
• Increasing retail
• Fewer retiree health benefits gt HAS
• Other?

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Baby Boomers will be here for a while.

• 78.2 million born 1946 1964
• 1946 65 2011
• 1956 65 2021
• 1964 65 2029

Reach Medicare age
The Boomer Wave
1946 1956
1964
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Today they are quickly turning 60

• Today
• 7,918 per day, 330 per hour
• 50.8 female
• Median age in Florida
• 36.3 in 1990 increased to
• 38.7 in 2000

Source U.S. Census Bureau
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When the Baby Boom ends, youll still have the
Senior Boom.

• 2030
• 57.8 million ages 66 - 84
• 54.9 female

Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Baby Boomers will be moving to Florida.
Source Del Webb April/May 2004 Retirement Study
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And the age cohort that includes Boomers is the
largest.
Florida Population
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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If you serve active adult communities, you will
see some.
Source Del Webb April/May 2004 Retirement Study
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Many are uncertain if they can afford to retire.
Down from 47 of those ages 59-70 today.
Source Del Webb April/May 2004 Retirement Study
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This is due in part to the rising cost of health
care.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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But boomers are healthier than the preceding
generation.

• Toothlessness has declined by almost 50 percent
• Only 22 of Boomers still use tobacco
• Boomers have twice the college graduation rate
  better educated have fewer health problems as
  they age

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With some exceptions.

• Only 43 of Boomers get enough exercise, and
  exertion decreases with age
• While consuming less fat, calories are up 300 a
  day more than their age group ate in the 1970s
• BP is higher than 140/90 for 1 in 3 Americans
  over age 45

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• One in ten Boomers has been diagnosed with
  diabetes

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So will hospitals experience increasing Boomer
demand?

• the independent effect of aging of the
  population on health services utillizationis not
  immediately apparent
• Health Care in America Trends in
  Utilization

Source National Center for Health Statistics,
2003
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Some hospitals are getting prepared

• Good Samaritan, Baltimore
• Geriatric practices in all care plans
• Senior housing, SNF, rehab
• MedStar Harbor Hospital, Baltimore
• Campus office Natl. Institute of Aging

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But will the Boomers choose a hospital?

• Boomers are not particularly loyal. Theyre
  going to go wherever they get the service and the
  convenience they want. And they are willing to
  pay more out of pocket for it.
• Ruth Colby
• Silver Cross Hospital
• Joliet, IL

Source Open Wide, hospital.connect.com, 10/18/05
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Boomers may choose to care for themselves.

• Cellf Genetic Assessment kits available soon
• Heart health
• Bone health
• Inflammation health
• Insulin resistance
• Antioxidant health

Source Open Wide, hospital.connect.com, 10/18/05
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So to wrap up

• Theres no guarantee there will be a rush (by
  Boomers) for hospital services.
• AARP
• Impact (for hospitals) will come from the change
  in payersfrom employer-sponsored private
  insurance to Medicare.
• Ctr. for Studying Health System Change
• Remains to be seen whether they will have a
  tougher time facing it (aging).
• American Association for Geriatric
  Psychiatry

Source 1Q 3a, hospitcalconect.com, 10/16/02
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Scenario Planning
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Scenario planning allows us to plot multiple
futures.
Today
Events that point us to one of these futures
2016
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Here are the scenarios we will live today for
each hospital.
More
Rainy Days Growing Medicare population,
but receiving care in settings outside the
hospital.
Storm Clouds Large numbers of Medicare patients
moving to your service area with needs.
Fixed (non-negotiable) Reimbursement
Gone With The Wind More adults ages 40-64 with
HSA or major medical insurance caring for
themselves.
Sunny Skies Mature adults with Medicare HMO
insurance requiring hospitalization.
Less
Capacity Demand
Less
More
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When you live these scenarios, open your minds.

• Were going 10 years ahead
• Only 10 years ago,
• The Internet and email are new
• HMO / PPO plans are closing beds
• Integrated delivery systems are forming
• Clinton health plan is announced

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Please form into four groups

• Read the scenario that describes your new world
• Discuss the impact on your function and role
• Identify strategies to deal with the changes you
  discover
• Appoint someone to read your scenario script to
  the group and report your strategies

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Common Strategies

• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________

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Trends and Events to Monitor

• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________
• _____________________________

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So which would you rather be?
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Thank you for helping us survive the financial
storm!

• Ken Peach, FACHE
• HFMA Member
• VP for Sales, Southern Region
• Quest Financial System
• 1-888-432-0693
• krpeach_at_juno.com