PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

1
PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

• March 2006

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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInternational Economy
3
International oil price - monthly average
4
OECD leading indicator and industrial production
5
World economic outlook Real GDP
Annual percentage change in real GDP Actual
Projections

2004 2005
2006

• World 5,1 4,3 4,3
• Advanced economies 3,3 2,5 2,7
• USA 4,2 3,5 3,3
• Japan 2,7 2,0 2,0
• Euro area 2,0 1,2 1,8
• United Kingdom 3,2 1,9 2,2
• Newly industrialised Asian
• economies 5,6 4,0 4,7
• Emerging market and
• developing countries 7,3 6,4 6,1
• Africa 5,3 4,5 5,9
• Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,3 4,6
• Developing Asia 8,2 7,8 7,2
• Western hemisphere 5,6 4,1 3,8
• Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and
  Taiwan Province of China
• Source IMF World Economic Outlook, September
  2005

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World economic outlook Consumer prices
Annual percentage change in consumer
prices Actual Projections

2004 2005
2006

• World 3,7 3,9 3,7
• Advanced economies 2,0 2,2 2,0
• USA 2,7 3,1 2,8
• Japan 0,0 -0,4 -0,1
• Euro area 2,1 2,1 1,8
• United Kingdom 1,3 2,0 1,9
• Newly industrialised Asian
• economies 2,4 2,2 2,3
• Emerging market and
• developing countries 5,8 5,9 5,7
• Africa 7,8 8,2 7,0
• Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,8 4,3
• Developing Asia 4,2 4,2 4,7
• Western hemisphere 6,5 6,3 5,4
• Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and
  Taiwan Province of China
• Source IMF World Economic Outlook, September
  2005

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Key central bank interest rates

• Per cent
• Countries 1 January 2005
  10 March 2006 Latest change
• (Percentage points)
• USA 2,25 4,50 31 Jan 2006 (0,25)
• Japan 0,00 0,00 19 Mar 2001 (-0,15)
• Euro area 2,00 2,50 2 Mar 2006 (0,25)
• United Kingdom 4,75 4,50 4 Aug 2005 (-0,25)
• Canada 2,50 3,75 7 Mar 2006 (0,25)
• Denmark 2,00 2,50 3 Mar 2006 (0,25)
• Sweden 2,00 2,00 23 Feb 2006 (0,25)
• Switzerland 0,25 1,25 0,50 1,50 15 Dec
  2005 (0,25)
• Australia 5,25 5,50 2 Mar 2005 (0,25)
• New Zealand 6,50 7,25 8 Dec 2005 (0,25)
• Israel 3,70 4,75 23 Jan 2006 (0,25)
• China 5,58 5,58 29 Oct 2004 (0,27)
• Hong Kong 3,75 6,00 1 Feb 2006 (0,25)

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Key central bank interest rates

• Per cent
• Countries 1 January 2005
  10 March 2006 Latest change
• (Percentage points)
• South Korea 3,25 4,00 9 Feb 2006 (0,25)
• Taiwan 1,75 2,25 22 Dec 2005 (0,125)
• Thailand 2,00 4,50 8 Mar 2006 (0,25)
• Brazil 17,75 16,50 8 Mar 2006 (-0,75)
• Chile 2,25 4,75 9 Feb 2006 (0,25)
• Mexico 8,81 7,50 24 Feb 2006 (-0,25)
• Czech Republic 2,50 2,00 27 Oct 2005 (0,25)
• Hungary 9,50 6,00 20 Sep 2005 (-0,25)
• Poland 6,50 4,00 28 Feb 2006 (-0,25)
• Russia 13,00 12,00 26 Dec 2005 (-1,00)
• South Africa 7,50 7,00 15 Apr 2005 (-0,50)
• The central bank of Malaysia introduced a new
  interest rate framework on 23 April 2004.
• The Bank of Mexico has decided on a gradual
  transition toward a policy target regime, but

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USA Real gross domestic product
10
USA Unemployment rate
11
USA Consumer prices and central bank interest
rates
12
Japan Real gross domestic product
13
Japan Unemployment rate
14
Japan Consumer prices
15
Euro area Real gross domestic product
16
Euro area Unemployment rate
17
Euro area Consumer prices and central bank
interest rate
18
UK Real gross domestic product
19
UK Unemployment
20
UK Consumer prices and central bankinterest rate
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SADC Inflation

• Annual percentage change in consumer prices
• 2004 2005 Nov 2005 Dec 2005 Jan 2005
• Africa 7,8
• Angola 43,6 23,2 19,0 18,5 17,2
• Botswana 6,6 8,6 11,3 11,4 16,6
• Lesotho 5,0 3,4 3,4 3,5
• Malawi 11,6 15,4 16,2 16,5 16,7
• Madagascar 13,8 18,8 12,8 11,4 10,0
• Mauritius 4,3 4,9 3,6 3,9 6,0
• Mozambique 12,6 7,2 9,6 14,0 11,5
• Namibia 4,1 2,3 3,4 3,4 3,6
• South Africa 1,4 3,4 3,4 3,6 4,0
• Swaziland 3,5 6,2 6,3
• Tanzania 4,3 ,4 4,8 5,0 5,4
• Zambia 18,0 18,3 17,2 15,9 12,2
• Zimbabwe 350,0 266,8 502,4 585,8 613,2
• Not available
• Source National central banks, unpublished
  Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic
  Outlook,
• September 2005

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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSNational Economy
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Real gross domestic product
6-year upswing
24
Real gross domestic product in thesecondary
sector
25
Real gross domestic expenditure
26
Real final consumption expenditureby households
27
Real disposable income of households
28
Household debt as percentage of disposable income
of households
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Real final consumption expenditure bygeneral
government
30
Real gross fixed capital formation
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Real gross domestic final demand
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Change in inventories
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Gross saving as percentage of grossdomestic
product
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Non-agricultural employment
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Labour market statistics, based on the labour
force survey

• Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep
• 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005
• (000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (000s)
• a. Total employment 11 424 11 392 11 643 11
  907 12 301
• b. Total unemployed (official definition) 4 434
  4 415 4 135 4 283 4 487
• c. Total economically active a b 15 858 15
  807 15 778 16 190 16 788
• d. Total not economically active 13 080 13 324
  13 527 13 334 12 909
• e. Total aged 15-65 years c d 28 938 29
  131 29 305 29 524 29 697
• f. Official unemployment rate b 100/c 28,0
  27,9 26,2 26,5 26,7
• Source Labour Force Survey by Statistics South
  Africa

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Non-agricultural nominal remunerationper worker
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Non-agricultural labour productivity
38
Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
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Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
40
Headline inflation and CPIX
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All-goods production prices
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Balance of payments Current account
43
Balance on financial account
44
Financial account
45
Gross gold and other foreign reserves and
international liquidity position of the South
African Reserve Bank
46
Imports covered by reserves
47
Average net daily turnover in the SouthAfrican
foreign exchange market
48
Exchange rates of the rand
49
Growth in M3
50
Total loans and advances extended toprivate
sector
51
Money-market interest rates
52
Yield on long-term government bonds
53
Yield curves
54
Turnover in the secondary share market
55
Share prices - all classes
56
Real-estate market
57
Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirement
58
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