ENSO Rainfall

1
ENSO Rainfall Signal Reversal
IRI PAGASA
(GRL Dec 2006)
2
Two Models (K-NN, CPT) used to Predict Angat
Inflows pSST model 850 hPa
winds (K-NN)
Observed October tropical SSTs (CPT)
Predictors
Forecast for NDJF (2006-07) Mean Inflow
Model K-NN 90 80 50
2006 Low 176 237 364
(536 MCM) High 1108 955 745

Model CPT 90 80 50
2006 Low 168 194 265
(562 MCM) High 1028 940 738
3
NWRB Scenario