State of progress in achieving the MDGs in Asia and the Pacific region: Some Regional Perspectives

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State of progress in achieving the MDGs in Asia
and the Pacific regionSome Regional
Perspectives
2nd Advisory Panel Meeting

• 1-2 March 2005

MDG Centre/OES UNESCAP
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FORMAT

• MDGs The Regional Context
• Poverty and hunger Key issues/challenges
• Critical interventions in reducing income poverty
• Key Messages
• Some examples of best practices for achieving the
  MDGs
• Conclusions

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Regional Perspective A Very Diverse Region

• 53 Member States 9 Associate Members
• 5 Sub-regions
• Of the worlds 6.5 bil population over 61 lives
  in Asia-Pacific
• 3 of the worlds most populous countries
• Some highly developed and a number of
  middle-income other poor countries
• 14 LDCs 12 LLDCs 17 PICs

 
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MDGs The Regional Context

• Continuing challenge to reduce poverty and
  promote human development
• More than 700 million still live below 1 a day
  (PPP), constituting almost 2/3 of global poor
• Striking discrepancies in progress in just about
  every MDGs within and across the regions

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Percentage of Population below International
Dollar-a-day Poverty Line (PPP)
African LDCs 55
Sub Sahara 46.4
Asian LDCs 38.3
All Asia 22
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THE CLASSIC POVERTY TRAP

• GYI/k - n - d
• GY Growth rate of real PCGDP
• I investment S Saving
• nPop GR
• d depreciation rate (3)
• k capital output ratio (3)

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Average Savings Rates 1990-2002
All Asia 32
African LDCs 7.2
Asian LDCs 12.1
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Average Population Growth Rates, 1990-2002
African LDCs 2.57
Asian LDCs 2.05
All Asia 1.4
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THE CLASSIC POVERTY TRAP

• GYI/k - n - d
• All Asia 32/3 1.4 3 6.2
• A-P LDCs 12.1/3 -2.05-3 -1.01
• African 7.2/3 2.57-3 -3.17

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Average Real Per Capita Income in US for 2002
(in 1995 dollar)
All Asia 806
African LDCs 262
Asian LDCs 386
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Forecast Average Real Per Capita Income in US
for 2015 (in 1995 dollar)
All Asia 806 to 1759
African LDCs 262 to 172
Asian LDCs 386 to 338
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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges

• Mixed performance
• Income poverty declining 2015 target is expected
  
• to be reached by the region as a whole
• However, significant variations both within as
  well as across countries
• A number of countries will probably miss the
  income poverty target LDCs, LLDCs, SIDS, and CET

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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges
Sustainability

• In several countries, gains made in early 1990s
  have
• been lost
• Ineffective macroeconomic management
• Poor governance
• Continued exclusion of women, the poor and the
  marginalized in local level delivery of services
  like health, education and sanitation

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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges
A large number of countries will miss hunger
target

• By end 1990, proportion of underweight children
  went down from 35 to 31 per cent
• Undernourishment across the population fell from
  20 to 16 per cent
• By end 2000, an estimated 500 million children
  and adults malnourished
• Hunger is particularly acute amongst poor women
  and children
• Weak distributional systems, unequal access and
  inequitable growth patterns

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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges
Inequality

• Most countries saw increase in inequality
• Sectoral composition of growth
• Geographical spread of growth
• Rising income inequality and slow growth most
• pronounced in CA, SA and the Pacific
• Recent evidence suggests inequality along
  sectoral lines becoming a concern in China and
  India

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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges
Pockets of extreme poor

• Specific geographical areas contain large numbers
  
• of poor
• This is seen in China, India and Indonesia, among
  other countries
• Extreme poverty is often associated with gender,
  ethnicity and indigenous population
• Urban slums contain approximately 513 million
  poor

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Poverty and hunger key issues/challenges
Growing vulnerability of the poor

• Vulnerable to fluctuations/loss in income
• Communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS, TB and
  malaria due to weak immune systems
• Natural disasters such cyclones/typhoons, tidal
  bores, tsunami and earthquakes
• Insecurity arising from conflicts, and poor law
  and order which, in turn, adversely affect their
  incomes and livelihoods

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Three critical interventions in reducing income
poverty

• Sustained pro-poor or inclusive pattern of
  economic growth increased investments in
  agriculture, physical and social infrastructure,
  and greater connectivity with remote and
  difficult areas
• Increased external resources for the weaker
  economies of the region, including trade and
  investment
• Major institutional changes and innovations are
  needed. Good institutions are indicators of sound
  development

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Three Clusters of countries/economies

• Fast Achievers
• Slow Achievers
• Off-track Countries

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Three Clusters of countries/economies
Fast Achievers

• High economic growth
• Income poverty fallen below 2 per cent
• Mostly are from East-Asia and South-east Asia
• But huge challenges in areas such as
• -womens representation in national
  parliaments
• -reducing under-five mortality rate and
  maternal mortality ratio
• -halting and reversing the spread of
  HIV/AIDS
• -incidence of urban poverty
• -mixed progress in Goal 7 environmental
  sustainability

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Three Clusters of countries/economies
Slow Achievers

• Low growth
• Mostly in South Asia and West Asia
• Outcome to be dominated by what happens in
  Bangladesh, India, and Nepal
• Although on target for meeting the targets in
  universal primary education and access to safe
  drinking water, several critical areas requiring
  attention include
• -Infant and child mortality
• -maternal mortality
• -womens share in non-agricultural employment
• -HIV/Aids and other communicable diseases
• -Increasing numbers of urban dwellers

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Three Clusters of countries/economies
Off-track countries

• Mostly the LDCs, LLDCs, SIDS, and CET
• Lack luster growth
• Several have regressed from the levels achieved
  in early 1990s
• Critical needs are significantly increased
  public/private investments in productive
  capacity, physical and social infrastructure, and
  improved institutional capacity in using
  internal/external financial, technical and human
  resources

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Three Clusters of countries/economies
Off-track countries (contd)

• High incidence of infant and maternal mortality,
  hunger, high drop out rates, declines in the
  proportion of land areas covered by forests,
  insufficient rural and urban water supply
  coverage
• Poor governance and macroeconomic management

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Key Messages (1)

• Most countries in the Asia-Pacific region will
  meet income poverty target but are likely to miss
  non-income targets if current trends persist
• The region as a whole is expected to achieve the
  income poverty target.
• Contrasting the relatively positive progress in
  income poverty reduction, the hunger is not
  likely to be met. In spite the seemingly
  sufficient food production in the region, around
  200M children in the region go to bed hungry
  every night.
• Maternal mortality rate remains unacceptably high
  in the region

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Key Messages (1) contd

• Most countries in the Asia-Pacific region will
  meet income poverty target but are likely to miss
  non-income targets if current trends persist
  (contd)
• Communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS and
  tuberculosis pose great threat to human security
• The region is undergoing major health transition
  facing a double burden of communicable and
  non-communicable diseases (NCDs)
• Environmental sustainability remains an elusive
  target.

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Key Messages (2)

• Hundreds of millions of poor people lack access
  of basic services
• In the region, 1.9 bill people lack access to
  improved sanitation and 670 mill to improved
  water source. It is estimated that 1.8 mill
  children die every year in the region of
  easily-preventable water-related diseases
• In several countries that have already achieved
  the Goals, special interventions may still be
  needed to address the pockets of poverty in urban
  slum and remote and difficult geographical
  locations
• Special attention is also needed to address
  poverty associated with gender, disability,
  ethnicity, caste and indigenous people.

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Key Messages (3)

• Reaching the MDG targets within and across
  countries, and ensuring equity, will therefore
  demand both more resources, national and
  international
• The region has both the human and financial
  resources for meeting the targets in time by 2015
• Fostering high economic growth in all countries
  is critical not only for achieving the MDGs but
  also for sustaining the achieved progress
• The participation of the private sector is
  essential in achieving and sustaining the progress

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Key Messages (3) contd

• Reaching the MDG targets within and across
  countries, and ensuring equity, will therefore
  demand both more resources, national and
  international (contd)
• The high domestic savings and accumulated
  international reserves in the region, exceeding 3
  trillion dollars, need to be channeled into
  productive investment through a change in
  regional financial and capital markets and
  related institutional development.
• The economic growth in the region depends on the
  continued expansion of international trade in
  goods and services.

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Key Messages (3) contd

• Reaching the MDG targets within and across
  countries, and ensuring equity, will therefore
  demand both more resources, national and
  international (contd)
• Realistic and fully-funded national poverty
  reduction strategies aimed at achieving the MDGs
  need to be developed in partnership with domestic
  stakeholders, supported by the international
  community.
• Strengthening regional, sub-regional and
  south-south cooperation will become increasingly
  critical in making progress towards the MDGs.

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Some examples of best practices for achieving the
MDGs

• Land reforms and better land management practices
• Effective population policies
• Macroeconomic reforms and management
• Gender parity in education
• Preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS
• Savings forests
• Micro-credit as a tool for empowering the poor

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Some key modalities for achieving the MDGs

• Align PRSPs and other PRSs with MDGs
• Learning from regional experiences
• Greater regional and sub-regional cooperation
• Strong and effective advocacy for MDGs
• Establish/strengthen MDGs focal points
• Strength connectivity by increased investments in
  infrastructure
• Special attention on the LDCs, LLDCs, SIDS, and
  CET
• Strengthen NSOs in addressing MDGs data issues

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Conclusions

• A mixed picture
• A nuanced story that is Asian Story
• Huge challenges in just about every aspect of the
  MDGs
• Unprecedented opportunities for cooperation and
  collaboration to achieve the MDGs
• An inclusive process of growth, leading to a
  virtuous cycle, both internally as well as
  externally