USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

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USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION
DOUBLE STEAL

• WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCE
• JUNE, 2000

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
  WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM
  HISTORY
• TO USE THESE WEAPONS, ONE MUST KNOW THE EFFECT
  THEY HAVE HAD IN THE PAST
• CONSIDER THE BALCK AND THE SPANISH FLU

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE BLACK DEATH
• EUROPE BEFORE THE PLAGUE
• THE RISE OF CITIES
• THE RISE OF COMMERCE
• THE SIEGE OF KAFFA
• THE USE OF BIO WARFARE IN THE MIDDLE AGES
• THE DISEASE IS SPREAD BY OXCART AND SHIP

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE BLACK DEATH
• THE FERTILE GROUND OF EUROPE
• THE LACK OF PREPARATION
• LACK OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE
• A TENDENCY TOARD HYSTERIA
• THE PLAGUE TAKES HOLD -- GOD ABANDONS EUROPE
• THE MECHANICS OF DISPOSAL

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE BLACK DEATH
• ENTIRE VILLAGES WIPED OUT
• ALL SORTS OF REMEDIES WERE TRIED
• SOCIAL ORDER BROKE DOWN
• MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE, THOSE WITH HANDICAPS,
  ANIMALS WERE ATTACKED ANDKILLED -- THEY WERE
  BLAMED

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE BLACK DEATH
• THE COST IN LIVES
• 30 OF EUROPE DIED
• CIVILIZATION WS SET BACK A GENERATION OR MORE
• SOCIAL ORDER AND COMMERCE BADLY DISRUPTED
• IT WAS PREVENTABLE IF EUROPE HAD KNOWN THE CAUSE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE BLACK DEATH
• EVENTUALLY THE DISEASE BURNED ITSELF OUT
• RE-OCCURRED IN EUROPE FOR OVER A DECADE AT
  IRREGULAR INTERVALS
• WHAT STOPPED THE PLAGUE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  BETTER SANITARY CONDITIONS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• THE PLAUGE EPENDED ON UNHYGENIC CONDITIONS --
  CONDITIONS LARGELY ERADICATED
• DOCTORS CAN DETECT THE PLAGUE AND TREAT IT
• THE PLAUGE IS A RARITY NOW
• UNIT 731 TIRED TO WEAPONIZE IT

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• THE PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE ENGINEERED AS A
  WEAPON
• RUSSIANS MAY HAVE BEEN DOING JUST THAT
• TECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE BEEN SHARED WITH OTHERS
• USE OF NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS VITAL

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• THE PLAGUE OCCURRED 5 CENTURIES AGO
• CITIZENS HAVE NO RECENT MEMORY TO ALARM THEM
• NO ONE FEELS THREATENED
• BUT WE HAVE A MORE RECENT PLAGUE TO PROVIDE SOME
  ALARM -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH
  FLU OF 1917
• ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
• BEGAN AT FORT RILEY, KANSAS
• LARGE MANURE PILE BURNED AND WIND CARRIED ASHES
  ALL OVER THE POST
• NEXT DAY, SOLDIERS STARTED COMING DOWN WITH THE
  FLU
• ARMY PANICKED -- SENT TROOPS OVER TO EUROPE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH
  FLU OF 1917
• ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
• THEY BROUGHT THE DISEASE WITH THEM
• PEOPLE IN EUROPE BEGAN TO COME DOWN TITH THE
  DISEASE
• FLU SPREAD TO THE GERMANS, AND THEN MOVED EAST BY
  STATES
• IN FACT, THE DISEASE MOVED AROUND THE WORLD AND
  RE-ENTERED THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEST COAST

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH
  FLU OF 1917
• NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
• HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED -- WHOLE FAMILIES
• SPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE POPULATION BY CONTACT
• PEOPLE DIED WITHIN A FEW DAYS FROM THE ONSET OF
  THE SYMPTOMS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH
  FLU OF 1917
• NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
• MORGUES RAN OUT OF ROOM
• PEOPLE CEASED TO GO OUTUSIDE AND INTERACT WITH
  OTHERS
• SCHOOLS AND STORES WERE CLOSED
• THE ECONOMIC LIFE OF THE NATION BEGAN TO GRIND TO
  A HALT
• PEOPLE BEGAN TO BLAME OTHERS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH
  FLU OF 1917
• NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
• POPULATION MIGRATED TO THE COUNTR FROM THE CITIY
  AND MERELY SPRED THE FLU
• PEOPLE TOOK UP RELIGION AS THEY HAD DURING THE
  BLACK DEATH
• FAMILIES LOST SIGNIFICANT MEMBERS ONE AFTER THE
  OTHER
• AS QUICKLY AS IT AROSE, THE FLU DISAPPEARED
• JUST AT THE RIGHT TIME -- SOCIETY WAS BEGINNING
  TO COME APART

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• THE FLU HAS NOT NORMALLY BEEN LISTED AS A
  POTENTIAL WEAPON
• HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT IT CAN RAVAGE A
  POPULATION
• FLU OCCURS NATURALLY AND ALMOST EVERY YEAR
• AN EASY WEAPON TO TEST -- ITS SO NATURAL TO HAVE
  IT

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• FLU CAN BE UPGRADED TO BE MORE MORE LETHAL
• IF A KILLER FLU WAS USED, SOCIAL ORDER AND
  MEDICAL FACILITIES WOULD BREAK DOWN
• WHO WOULD KNOW THIS TYPE OF FLU WAS A WEAPON

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• FLU IS A PERFECT WEAPON BECAUSE IT SPREADS SO
  RAPIDLY AND ITS POINT OF ORIGIN CAN EASILY BE
  MASKED
• BIOWEAPONS HAVE NOT BEEN USED SINCE 1945 BECAUSE
  OF THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
• INFRASTRUCTURE OF PREPARATION
• WEAPON MUST BE IDENTIFIED EARLY
• DISEASE MUST BE KEPT WITHIN PARAMETERS
• CENTRAL DIRECTION TO FIGHT THE DISEASE AND ITS
  SPREAD
• CIVIL AUTHORITIES MUST BE PREPARED FOR THIS TYPE
  OF CONTINGENCY
• FIRST RESPONDERS MUST IDENTIFY WHAT IT IS AND
  SPREAD ALARM

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE
• HISTORY SHOWS IF BIOWEAPON IS FULLY DPLOYED, THE
  DAMAGE CAN BE CATASTOPHIC
• MUST THINK OUT OF THE BOX -- NORMAL TERMS OF
  REFERENCE DO NOT APPLY
• IF WE FORGET JUST ONE, IT IS ALL OVER
• NEVER ASSUME THAT THE ENEMY WILL USE LETHAL --
  THERE IS A DEFINITE PLACE FOR NONETHAL CHEMICALS
  AND BIO AGENTS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE
• KNOWLEDGE OF THE BLACK DEATH, THE SPANISH FLU,
  AND OTHER PLAGUES IN HISTORY CAN GIVE A NATION
  THE INFORMATION IT NEEDS TO PLAN A BOLD AND SWIFT
  STROKE TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE
  WORLD
• ITS ALL ABOUT POWER

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE USE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL
• IN BASEBALL, WHEN TWO RUNNERS ARE ON BASE AND THE
  3RD BASE COACH SIGNALS FOR A DOUBLE STEAL, THEY
  RUN ON THE NEXT PITCH TO GET INTO SCORING
  POSITION
• YOU CAN GET TWO RUNS INSTEAD OF ONE BY RISKING
  ONE OR BOTH RUNNERS
• A HIGH RISK, BUT THE PAYOFF IS BIG

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• OPERATIONAL DOUBLE STEAL
• RATIONALE THE CHANGING OF THE BALANCE OF POWER
  IN THE PACIFIC RIM
• BRINGS TOGETHER THREE OLD COMRADES -- CHINA,
  NORTH KOREA, AND RUSSIA
• THE STAKES ARE ENORMOUS
• POWER COMES TO THOSE WHO DARE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• NOTE THIS SCENARIO IS FICTION
• BUT, REMEMBER TWENTY THOUSAND LEAGUES UNDER THE
  SEAS
• THE SUBMARINE NAUTILUS WAS FICTION THEN, BUT THAT
  TYPE OF A SUBMARINE IS COMMON NOW
• FICTION CAN BECOME REALITY

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• GIVENS
• NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA, AND CHINA HAVE LARGE AND
  CAPABLE BIOWEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
  FACILITIES
• NORTH KOREAS GOAL IS TO REUNITE THE SOUTH
• CHINA WANTS TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN
• BOTH CANNOT REACH THEIR DREAMS WHILE THE U.S. CAN
  INTERVENE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• GIVENS
• CURRENT U.S. POLICY IS CLEAR -- USE CHEMICAL OR
  BIOWEAPONS AGAINST US, AND RETALIATION WILL BE
  MASSIVE AND MAYBE NUCLEAR
• PROBLEM HOW TO DEVELOP A PLAN USING CHEMICAL
  AND BIOAGENTS THAT WOULD RENDER THE U.S. HARMLESS
  WITHOUT RISKING NUCLEAR EXCHANGE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THERE IS A WAY
• PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS
• TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA MUST BE ATTACKED AND
  OVERRUN BEFORE U.S. CAN INTERVENE IN STRENTH
• PRESENT U.S. WITH FAIT ACCOMPLI AND GIVE U.S.
  LEADERSHIP A TERRIBLE CHOICE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THERE IS A WAY
• PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS
• WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE TO SAVE IT
  SYNDROME
• NO PRESIDENT SHOULD EVER BE FACED WITH THIS TYPE
  OF A DECISION

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN
• CAPABLE OF DEFENDING ITSELF, BUT RELATIONS WITH
  PRC ARE DELICATE ABOUT PROVIDING MILITARY
  HARDWARE
• CHINA IS BUILDING UP TECHNOLOGY TO MARCH ANY
  POTENTIAL FOE
• GEOGRAPHY OF TWIWAN LIMITS WHAT PLA CAN DO TO
  SEIZE ISLAND
• CHINESE NAVY DOES NOT HAVE AMPHIBIOUS FORCES FOR
  FULL SCALE LANDINGS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN
• ANY ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE ISLAND WOULD HAVE TO
  TAKE LESS THAN 3 DAYS
• IT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERWHELMING IN SCOPE AND
  POWER
• TIED INTO THE IDEA OF THE INDIRECT APPROACH

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE INDIRECT APPROACH
• USE OF INFORMATION WARFARE TO BLIND DEFENSES
• USE OF BIOAGENTS TO DESTROY COMPUTERS
• USE OF SIMILAR AGENTS TO DISRUPT TELEPHONE,
  RADIO, AND TELEVISION
• WAY IS PREPARED BY EPIDEMIC OF A POWERFUL FLU

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE INDIRECT APPROACH
• THE FLU IS SPRAYED OVER THE ISLAND BY STEALTH
  GLIDERS CONTROLLED BY THE PRC
• WHEN FLU TAKES FULL EFFECT INFORMATION WARFARE IS
  INITIATED
• SPECIAL FORCES USING NON-LETHAL CHEMICAL AGENTS
  TAKES OVER KEY COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE INDIRECT APPROACH
• USING LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT, WEAPONS AND VEHICLE
  PARKS ARE SPRAYED WITH IRRITANT CHEMICAL AGENTS
  THAT WILL MAKE THEIR USE DIFFICULT AND REQUIRE
  DECONTAMINATION
• THE FIFTH COLUMN -- WHO HAVE BEEN IMMUNIZED TO
  THE FLU WILL THEN TAKE OVER TV AND RADIO TO BEGIN
  THE PROCESS OF EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE NEUTRALIZATION OF BIG BROTHER
• USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION
  WARFARE
• U.S. SATELLITES ARE TEMPORARILY DISABLED -- THIS
  WILL APPEAR TO BE A NATURAL GLITCH
• U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL -- PARTICULARLY USAF,
  NAVAL, AND FAST DEPLOYING U.S. ARMY GROUND FORCES
  WILL COME DOWN WITH THE FLU

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE NEUTRALIZATION OF BIG BROTHER
• USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION
  WARFARE
• PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER
  WITH ARTICLES INDICATING THE THEME WHY FIGHT FOR
  TAIWAN
• NON-LETHAL BIO AGENTS WILL BE USED TO NEUTALIZE
  ANY FAST DEPLOYING U.S. FORCE, PARTICULARLY USAF
  AIRCRAFT

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE FALL OF TAIWAN
• LANDING FORCE OF SPECIAL TROOPS WOULD BE HIDDEN
  IN SPECIFICALLY CONSTRUCTED SHIPS -- Erskine
  Childers THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS
• LAND AT KEY TAIWANESE PORTS
• TROOPS WILL BE DRESSED SIMILARLY TO NATIONALIST
  FORCES
• GOVERNMENT OF LOCAL TAIWANESE WITH PRC
  CONNECTIONS WILL BE NAMED, AND THEY WILL CALL FOR
  CALM FROM THE POPULACE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE FALL OF TAIWAN
• CHINESE MISSILES WILL COMMAND THE FORMOSA STRAITS
• CHINESE KILO CLASS SUBS WILL PATROL OFF TAIWAN TO
  INTERCEPT AND STOP ANY U.S. NAVY TASK FORCE
• TAIWAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY
  RESTORED UNDER PLA CONTROL

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• NORTH KOREA USES A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO TAKE SOUTH
  KOREA
• BUT, THERE ARE U.S. TROOPS STATIONED IN SOUTH
  KOREA
• PLAN TO DEAL WITH THEM

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• U.S. TROOPS ARE LOCATED IN ENCLAVES AND NOT AMONG
  THE GENERAL POPULATION
• THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED WITH ATTACKS USING
  NON-LETHAL FLU, AND DEGRADING CHEMICAL AGENTS FOR
  WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS
• SINCE ROKA AND U.S. HAVE CC AREAS, THEY WOULD BE
  NEUTRALIZED USING NON-LETHAL AGENTS AND SPECIAL
  OPERATIONS UNITS

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• THE NORTH KOREAN ARMY IS REPUTED TO HAVE AMONG
  THE BEST TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES IN THE WORLD
• THEY HAVE BEEN TESTING THE DEFENSES OF SOUTH
  KOREA FOR DECADES
• THEY KNOW WHERE THE HOLES ARE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• HERES HOW ITS DONE
• CRIPPLE CC SYSTEM WITH USE OF NON-LETHAL
  CHEMICALS AND BIO-AGENTS
• ACTIVATION OF TH COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL AND
  DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONS
• INFACT THE S. KOREAN POPULATION WITH POWERFUL BUT
  NON-LETHAL FLU VIRUS
• USE POWERFUL NON LETHAL BIO-CHEMICAL AGENTS TO
  FORCE DECONTAMINATION OF VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• HERES HOW ITS DONE
• USE OF EMP
• USE OF NKPA SPEICAL FORCES -- SNIPER BRIGADES FOR
  DISRUPTOR MISSIONS AND SEIZURE OF KEY POSITION
  AND TERRAIN
• USE OF TUNNELS NOT DISCOVERED TO MOVE BALANCE OF
  STRKING FORCE INTO SOUTH KOREA

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL
  AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• HERES HOW ITS DONE
• NORTH KOREA SEEDS SKIES AROUND SOUTH KOREA WITH
  BIO AGENTS TO DISRUPT INCOMING U.S. REINFORCMENTS
  -- BY PLANE
• S. KOREAN AIR BASES SPRAYED WITH DISRUPTIVE
  AGENTS TO PRECLUDE THEIR IMMEDIATE USE

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• U.S. RESPONSE
• AS IN TAIWAN SITUATION. ONLY POSSIBILITY IS A
  BREAK-IN OPERATION
• THOUSANDS OF U.S. LIVES AT STAKE, AND TO TAKE
  BACK S. KOREA WOULD INVOLVE DEATHS OF THOUSANDS
  OF KOREAN
• NO U.S. PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE TO MAKE THIS
  DECISION

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE
• NEED TO DEVELOP MEASURES TO COUNTER DISRUPTOR
  WEAPONS AGAINST CC AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• CONSIDERATION NEED TO BE GIVEN TO ALL CHEMICAL
  AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THAT ARE NOT LETHAL AND
  PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO NEGATE THEIR EFFECT

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OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

• LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE
• IF WE IGNORE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST, THESE NEW
  TYPE OF WEAPONS CAN REDUCE AMERICAS MILITARY
  FROM THE BEST TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD,
  TO USING BOWS AND ARROWS
• SURRENDER MIGHT BE OUR ONLY OPTION