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From RAINS to GAINSSynergies and trade-offs
between the control of local and regional air
pollution and the mitigation of global
greenhouse gas emissionsEFCA Workshop on Air
Pollution and Climate Change, Strasbourg,
November, 17-19, 2008

• Markus Amann
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis (IIASA)

The development of GAINS is supported by the
EU-LIFE (www.ec4macs.eu) and the EU FP6 programmes
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IIASAs RAINS and GAINS modelsTools for
cost-effective emission control strategies

• Quantification of sectoral emission control
  potentials and costs
• considering technical and economic interactions
  between the control of air pollutants and GHGs,
• assessing impacts on air quality and climate
  indicators.
• Search for least-cost portfolio of mitigation
  measures to meet air quality and/or GHG
  targets.
• GAINS implementations available for
• Europe,
• China, India, Pakistan,
• other Annex1 Parties of Kyoto Protocol (under
  development).

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GAINS A model to harvest synergies by
integrating multiple pollutants and their
multiple effects
Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures
for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3
Impacts Health impacts from fine particulate matter ? ? ? ? ?
Impacts from ground-level ozone ? ?
Impacts Vegetation damage Ozone (agricultural crops) ? ?
Impacts Acidification (forests) ? ? ?
Impacts Eutrophication (biodiversity) ? ?
Impacts
Impacts
Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures
for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants for air pollutants and greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O HFCsPFCsSF6
Impacts Health impacts from fine particulate matter ? ? ? (?) ?
Impacts from ground-level ozone ? ? (?)
Impacts Vegetation damage Ozone (agricultural crops) ? ? (?)
Impacts Acidification (forests) ? ? ?
Impacts Eutrophication (biodiversity) ? ?
Impacts Radiative forcing - from direct greenhouse gases ? ? ? ?
Impacts - via aerosols and ozone (?) (?) (?) (?) (?) (?)
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Five lessons from recent policy analyses

• IIASAs GAINS (Greenhouse gas Air pollution
  Interactions and Synergies) model has been
  employed for
• EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, and the
• Commissions proposal on the Climate and Energy
  package.

• IIASAs GAINS (Greenhouse gas Air pollution
  Interactions and Synergies) model has been
  employed for
• EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, and
• Commissions proposal on the Climate and Energy
  package.
• Two cases
• National governmental energy projections
  collected in 2006 (business as usual, 3 CO2 in
  2020 compared to 1990)
• A scenario with -20 CO2 in 2020 and enhanced use
  of renewable energy, developed with the
  Commissions PRIMES energy model
• The final Commission proposal on the Climate and
  Energy Package is in between these two cases.

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Through co-control, GHG mitigation strategies
also lead to lower air pollution emissions

• In many cases, sources of greenhouse gases also
  emit air pollutants.
• Low CO2 strategies, through
• improved combustion efficiencies,
• electricity savings,
• improved insulation,
• combined heat and power generation,
• fuel switching,
• alternative transport modes,
• etc.,
• reduce the use of fossil fuels.

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Energy consumption in the EU-27
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Air pollution emissions in the EU-27
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GHG mitigation strategies have substantial
co-benefits on human health via lower air
pollution
Estimated loss in statistical life expectancydue
to the exposure to fine particles in 2020

Months
Business-as-usual national energy
projections(3 CO2 in 2020)
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1. GHG mitigation strategies have substantial
   co-benefits on human health via lower air
   pollution

Months
Months
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1. GHG mitigation strategies have substantial
   co-benefits on ecosystems via lower air pollution

Ecosystem damage indicators in 2020

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1. GHG mitigation strategies reduce costsfor
   implementing air pollution controls

Costs for implementing current EU air quality
legislation in 2020

health vegetation benefits!
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1. GHG mitigation strategies reduce costsfor
   implementing air pollution controls

Additional air pollution control costs for
achieving TSAP health targets in 2020

Business as usualNational energy projections
(3 CO2 in 2020)
PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures
(-20 CO2 in 2020)
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Also in developing countries, some GHG measures
are cost-effective for air pollution control
Costs for reducing health impacts of PM in China
2030 by 50
-8 CO2
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Important GHG mitigation measures with
co-benefits

• Reduced consumption of coal and oil, through
• energy efficiency improvements, e.g.,
• increased combustion efficiencies,
• improved insulation,
• co-generation of electricity and heat, etc.
• fuel substitution.
• Behavioural changes leading to lower demand for
  fossil fuels.
• Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
  plants

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Important GHG mitigation measures without
co-benefits

• No co-benefits
• Use of bio-fuels in transport sector
• Trade-offs
• More diesel (without efficient particle filters)
• Enhanced use of biomass in households

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Conclusions

• Many mitigation measures for GHG emissions have
  significant co-benefits on
• human health,
• ecosystems, and
• air pollution control costs.
• However, some popular GHG mitigation measures
  exhibit clear trade-offs.
• These (dis-)benefits need to be included in a
  full assessment of GHG mitigation strategies.
• They occur in the near-term and at the local
  scale.
• They justify some GHG reducing measures from an
  air-pollution cost-effectiveness perspective.
• Integrated (science and policy) approaches are
  essential to harness all synergies.

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Thank you!

• More information
• www.iiasa.ac.at/rains