Greenhouse Amplification of the Power of the Sun: An Earth bound problem with Impacts

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Greenhouse Amplification of the Power of the
SunAn Earth bound problem with
ImpactsVisible from Space

• W. Richard Peltier
• Department of Physics
• University of Toronto

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The Active Sun and the Amplification of its Power
by the Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O
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Greenhouse Gas Concentration Measurements from
Antarctic Ice-Cores Confirm the Anomalous Nature
of Present Trace Gas Conditions
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The current (Holocene) inter-glacial
Last 4 inter-glacials
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Earth at the Last Maximum of Glaciation 21,000
Years Ago
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Since the onset of industrialization, greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere have been
increasing at an unprecedented rate.
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Over the period since Last Glacial Maximum
Individual GHG Strengths
Holocene
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An early (TAR) hockey stick
Current, 2009, atmospheric CO2 concentration
is 388 ppmv, which is to be compared to the
pre-industrial level of 280 ppmv, an increase of
36 over the past 160 years
That global warming would be caused by increasing
CO2 levels was predicted by the Nobel chemist
Arrhenius1896
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The mean surface temperature since the mid-20th
century has continued to increase above that
which existed at any time during the past 1300
years
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The IPCC Future Scenarios
Since the beginning of northern hemisphere
industrialization the increase has been 0.8 Deg.
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The Observed Warming is Characterized by High
Latitude Northern Hemisphere Amplification
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The GRACE Satellites Gravity field time
dependence and climate
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Land Ice in the Polar Regions Sensitive
indicators of greenhouse amplification
Alaska and the Yukon
Antarctica
Greenland
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The GRACE signal (a) and that expected due to the
response of planetary shape to the elimination of
the ice-age ice sheet that once covered Canada(b)

(a) (b)
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Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise
Alaska and Greenland
Corrected for hydrology
.15 mm/yr in Global sea level rise
Corrected for GIA
.62 mm/yr in Global sea level rise
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Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise
Antarctica
CSR
GFZ
GIA
GFZ-GIA
CSR-GIA
.32 mm/yr in global sea level rise
.36 mm/yr in Global sea level rise
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Remember, the Greenhouse effect is enhanced as a
consequence of our carbon based economy
Greenhouse Gases
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To Summarize Re Climate Change

• Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon
  dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen from
  277 parts per million to 387 parts per million
• Burning fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas
  emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year
• Deforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each year
• Electricity generation and transportation are the
  largest sources of CO2 emissions, with coal-fired
  power plants the biggest culprit
• As CO2 accumulates, global temperature rises

Photo Credit Yann Arthus-Bertrand
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Climate Change

• The earth has warmed an average 0.6C (1.0F)
  since 1970
• Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and
  increase crop-withering heat waves
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (IPCC) projects earths average temperature will
  rise 1.1 - 6.4C (2.0 - 11.5F) during this
  century

Photo Credit iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
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Ice Melting

• Losing our Reservoirs in the Sky
• Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide
• Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers
  feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry
  season, providing critical irrigation water for
  agriculture
• If melting continues at current rates, rivers
  like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could
  become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice
  harvests

Photo Credit Yann Arthus-Bertrand
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Ice Melting

• Rising Seas
• Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets
  are melting at accelerating rates
• Together hold enough water to raise sea level 12
  meters (39 feet)
• A 10 meter rise in sea level today would inundate
  coastal areas home to more than 600 million
  people

The risk is that climate change could spiral out
of control, making it impossible to arrest trends
such as rising temperatures, ice melting, and
rising seas, threatening food security and
creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees.
Photo Credit Yann Arthus-Bertrand
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The Answer De-carbonize by both --Harnessing the
Wind

• One Centerpiece of a new energy economy
• Abundant North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone
  could satisfy U.S. energy needs
• Widespread in every country
• Increasingly inexpensive
• A plausible goal 3 million MW of installed
  capacity worldwide by 2020?
• Would Need 1.5 million 2-MW turbines installed by
  2020

Photo Credit iStockPhoto / Joe Gough
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And De-carbonize by-- Harnessing The Power of the
Sun

• Technologies include photovoltaics (PV), solar
  thermal power plants, solar hot water and space
  heaters
• Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 hour could power
  global economy for 1 year
• New Economy goal Solar heating, electricity each
  exceed 1 million MW installed capacity

Photo Credit iStockPhoto / katyakatya
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World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006
and in one envisioned NEW Economy
X
2050??
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The End