Application of AOI Analysis to Control Cost and Control Strategy Design in the VISTAS Region

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Application of AOI Analysis to Control Cost and
Control Strategy Design in the VISTAS Region

• Prepared by
• Gregory Stella
• VISTAS Technical Advisor Emission Inventories
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• VISTAS Joint Workgroup Meeting
• Raleigh, NC
• September 6, 2006

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Application Objectives

• Identify sources of residual emissions in 2018
  base case within newly identified AOIs
• Create cost effectiveness curves for point source
  reduction options
• Use to help define possible control strategies
  based on findings

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Initial Conclusions

• No incremental across the board strategy
  available for VISTAS domain
• Additional reductions are most beneficial if
  applied with geographic and pollutant specificity
• Benefits will come from remaining significant
  non-reduced sources

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Eastern U.S. Class I Areas
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Hercules Glade, MO
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Elevated Point Source SO2 Emissions (2002 Tons)
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Limited Geography AnalysisCounties within 200km
of SIPS
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Residence Time Difference Worst Days All Sample
Days 2000-2003 Sipsey, AL
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Limited Geography AnalysisResidence Time
Difference Worst Days
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Extinction-Weighted Back-Trajectory Residence Time
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Extinction-Weighted Back-Trajectory Residence Time
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Elevated Point Source SO2 Emissions (2002 Tons)
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Sipsey Wilderness AOI2018 Emissions (Tons)
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Sipsey Wilderness AOI2018 Emissions (
Contribution)
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Sipsey Wilderness AOI2018 Emissions (Tons)
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Sipsey Wilderness AOI2002 to 2018 Emissions
Change
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Control Strategy DesignCost-Effectiveness
Method

• Apply all available controls to sources within
  geography of interest
• Sort by marginal cost per ton to develop cost
  effectiveness curve
• Follow curve to point of decision
• RPG yet to be determined

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Cost Effectiveness Scenario Comparison (SIPS
SO2 Reductions)
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Four Factor Analysis

• Current VISTAS process addresses three of four
  requirements of RPG
• Cost of compliance
• Time necessary for compliance
• Remaining useful life of existing sources
• Does not account for energy and non-air
  environmental impacts
• Needs to be facility specific

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Observations

• Many ways to review the data
• Which one is right for you?

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Next Steps

• Identify AOI for each Class I area
• Review of top residual point sources in AOI of
  interest
• Populate Source Matrix
• Determine which have been controlled and which
  are controllable
• Identify which may be eligible for BART

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Next Steps

• Review of cost control equation variables
• Boiler capacity and utilization used to derive
  control costs
• Typically default values overestimate cost of
  control
• Example (FGD on industrial boiler)
• 250-500 MMBtu/hr boiler
• Actual cost 1,000-1,500 / ton red
• Defaulted cost 10,000 15,000 / ton red

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Next Steps

• Determine objectives for RPG
• Source type?
• Emission total?
• Total Cost?
• Cost per ton?
• Glide slope?
• ???

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Next Steps

• Define control strategies for each Class I area
  using full suite of information necessary to make
  an informed decision
• Apply reductions to inventories and remodel