A Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

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A Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

• Richard M. Swanson
• SunPower Corporation

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Questions I often hear from the general public

• Why have solar cells never become a substantial
  source of energy?
• Too bad solar never made it, it seemed so
  promising back in the 1970s.
• When will the big breakthrough come that will
  make solar cells practical?

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Answers and Fun Facts

• Solar cell manufacturing is a vital and rapidly
  growing industry, enjoying over 30 annual growth
  over the last 10 years.
• In 2002, more square inches of silicon was used
  by the solar cell industry than the IC industry.
• There will be no big breakthrough that impacts
  the industry for at least 10 years, and probably
  20 years.
• Instead, the existing technologies will evolve to
  where they will be cost effective in most
  distributed applications in 10 years, and will be
  competitive with fossil fuel generation in 20
  years.

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Solar Cell Rules of Thumb

• The annual production of solar modules increases
  ten-fold every decade
• The price of solar cell modules decreases by half
  every decade
• 2002 3.00/W
• 2012 1.50/W
• 2022 0.75/W

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Solar Cell Price Exhibits a Classic Experience
Curve Behavior
1979 30/W
2002 3/W
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Distribution of Progress Ratios 22 Field Studies
(Dutton and Thomas 1984)
PV Progress Ratio
Note These progress ratios are firm level
(not industry wide) studies.
Taken from Robert Margolis PhD Thesis, 2002
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Factors Driving PastCost Reduction

• Poly silicon price 300/kg ? 30/kg
• Wire saws now lt 0.25/W
• Larger wafers 2 ? 6
• Thinner wafers 15 mil ? 8 mil
• Improved efficiency 10 ? 16
• Volume manufacturing 1MW ? 100MW
• Increased automation none ? some
• Improved manufacturing processes

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Experience Curves Can Be Used to Project Into the
Future
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The Silicon Roadmap

• Where Will Solar Cells Go in the Future?
• Developed at the
• 2002 NREL Silicon Workshop

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Efficiency has huge cost leverage
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2012 1.10/W
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Silicon Roadmap Predicts 2013 Goal Will Be Met!
Cost-Effective Distributed Power in 2012
Distributed Generation Value
Silicon Roadmap Cost
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Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction

• Poly silicon price 300/kg ? 30/kg
• Wire saws now lt 0.25/W
• Larger wafers 2 ? 6
• Thinner wafers 8 mil ? 2 mil
• Improved efficiency 16 ? 22
• Volume manufacturing 100MW ? 1000MW
• Increased automation some ? lots
• Continued improvement in manufacturing processes

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Extending Projection to 2013 Predicts
Cost-effective Bulk Power
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Early Projections Were Not Too Good
Big Breakthrough
Huge Growth
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The Renewable Energy Revolution

• Renewable energy will capture a meaningful share
  of the Global Energy Market in the next 25 years.

Oil industry consensus production is will peak
between 2004 and 2010

• Key drivers will be
• Falling costs for renewable energy
• Declining fossil fuel production
• Increasing energy demand worldwide
• Environmental concerns

Source C.J.Campbell World Oil Resources Dec
2000
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The Future of Renewables Projected World Energy
Production
Source Royal Dutch Shell Group
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23 Billion in Subsidies Yields Inexhaustible,
Pollution-Free Source of Energy!Subsidize the
difference in cost over 3/W
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Thank You Austin Clean Energy Initiativeand
Best of Luck Making Austin a Center of Clean
Energy