Security Planning and Transformation

1
Security Planning and Transformation

• Issues of Regret
• Achieving Balance
• The Future Force

Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force
Transformation 3 December 2003
2
Transforming Defense
Corporate Strategy

• Part I Continuous small steps
• Sustaining
• Evolutionary changes
• Stay on the local maximum
• Part II Many exploratory jumps
• Explore and expand the local region
• New doctrine / organization / systems
• Part III A few big bets
• Could change DoD
• Change the world
• Create a new game with new rules

• If you are not making big bets, you are a fixed
  strategic target and at risk.

3
Candidates for Action Now
Identify
issues of regret

• Warfare Elements
• Fire - Non-lethals, Directed Energy, Redirected
  Energy
• Maneuver - Sea Basing, Vertical Battlefield,
  Lift for
• Operational Maneuver
• Protection - Urban Operations, Battlefield
  Medicine
• C2C Joint Interdependency vs.
  Interoperability
• ISR - Demand-Centered Intel, Tactically
  Responsive Space
• Logistics - Joint Demand-Centered Logistics

4
Transforming Defense
Corporate Strategy

• Part I Continuous small steps
• Part II Many exploratory jumps
• Urban Operations
• Vertical Battlefield
• Lift for Operational Maneuver
• Robotics
• Tactically Responsive Space
• Part III A few big bets
• Demand-Centered Intelligence
• Sea-Basing
• Joint, Demand-Centered Logistics
• Directed Energy/Re-directed Energy
• Battlefield Medicine
• Non-Lethals

• If you are not making big bets, you are a fixed
  strategic target and at risk.

5
Total Force Balance
Security Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace CONTAINMENT
The Strategic Imperative ALLIANCE PARTNERSHIP
The Close Fight HALT THEINVADING ARMY
Winning the Battle / Combat OVERWHELMING
PUNISHMENT
6
Total Force Balance
Security All Else Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligenceAll Elements of Power
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High
SeasSpaceCyberspace
The Close FightDecisive Operations LandLow
AltitudeLittorals
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
7
Total Force Balance Security All
Else Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligenceAll Elements of Power
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High
SeasSpaceCyberspace
The Close FightDecisive Operations LandLow
AltitudeLittorals
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
8
Total Force Balance
Security All Else Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligenceAll Elements of Power
Maximum Complexity
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High
SeasSpaceCyberspace
The Close FightDecisive Operations LandLow
AltitudeLittorals
Global Stability
Local Stability
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
9
Strategic Posture Exporting
Security
The Red Zone
Our Response
10
Top Level Issues Culture Values, Beliefs,
Attitudes
Policy Outcome f Power, Moral Principle
11
Warfare The Big Trends
PEOPLE NUMBERS PLATFORMS MOBILITY MUNITIONS S
PEED/RANGE ROBOTICS PRECISION
INCREASING SPEED AND INFO CONTENT
INCREASED DETACHMENT
As armies get smaller, the number of people
involved in war increases
12
Strategic Posture Exporting
security
13
The Collection Analysis Gap
Managing the inevitable
Policy Choices

• Automate Triage
• Automate Analysis
• We all become analysts

14
The Advance to Baghdad

• Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications
  and transportation
• 2. Logisticians shift to push system use
  models, SitReps, to sense supply needs
• 3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill
  gaps

15
Approaches to Logistics

• More is better
• Mountains of stuff measured in days of supply
• Uses massive inventory to hedge against
  uncertainty in demand and supply
• Mass begets mass and slows everything down

Prime Metric Days of Supply
Prime Metric Flow Time
Prime Metric Speed/Quality of Effects
16
Whats the Behavior Telling Us?
Army Stuff
Joint Force Capabilities Packages
Navy Stuff
USAF Stuff
Context Coordination
USMC Stuff
TraditionalC2
Common Stuff
Distributed Operations
Other Stuff
Transition from linear supply chain to adaptive
demand network
Sources of Stuff (Theater, CONUS, etc)
17
Understanding of Network Relationships is Critical

• If the frontiers of National Security can be
  everywhere and are not territorial borders but
  fault lines within societies, then
• The nexus of foreign and domestic security policy
  is intelligence
• We must be able to look and operate deeply within
  societies

Looking deeply within societies means Looking
deeply within networks
18
Militant Groups Network
Center of Gravity ?
19
Within the next 20 years, attacks upon computer
networks will become a central feature of
military operations.
Strongly Disagree
Unsure
Strongly Agree
Source Thomas G. Mahnken and James FitzSimonds,
Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, Naval War
College, 2002
20
Within the next 20 years, attacks upon computer
networks will be as important as delivery of
munitions to military operations.
Strongly Disagree
Unsure
Strongly Agree
Source Thomas G. Mahnken and James FitzSimonds,
Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, Naval War
College, 2002
21
Operationally Responsive Space
2 stories high 9 ft in Diameter
20 high 41 in Diameter
TACSAT 1 2003
TACSAT 1 1969
22
TacSat-1 Attributes

• Responsive
• lt 1 Yr concept to on-orbit capability
• Low Cost
• Total cost of experiment less than 15M
• including launch
• Experiment
• UAV Components in Space
• Space/Air Horizontal Integration
• Designer Payloads
• TCP/IP Based SIPR Net Accessed
• New commercial launch vehicle
• Operationally relevant capability
• Integrated into Combatant Commanders
• Exercises/Experiments
• Time / Capability Trade Off

Falcon
23
Within the next 10 years, some adversaries will
likely have the ability to use long-range
precision strike weapons such as ballistic and
cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed
military infrastructure, such as ports,
airfields, and logistical sites.
30
25
20
15
Percent of Resondants
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Strongly Disagree
Unsure
Strongly Agree
Source Thomas G. Mahnken and James FitzSimonds,
Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, Naval War
College, 2002
2000
24
Within the next 10 years, some adversaries will
likely have the ability to use long-range
precision strike weapons such as ballistic and
cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed
military infrastructure, such as ports,
airfields, and logistical sites.
30
25
20
15
Percent of Resondants
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Strongly Disagree
Unsure
Strongly Agree
The Limits of Transformation Officer Attitudes
toward the RMA, Tom Mahnken and James
Fitzsimmons NWC, 2003
2002
2000
25
Security System Balance?
Major
Movements
Strategic Posture/Balance Forces forward Deploy
from home Allies Operational
Maneuver From forward garrison
From the sea From strategic distances Deter
Forward 2d derivative force Sustaining
force Stabilization/Nation-building force
26
Trends in Security Competition
27
Elements of Transformation
Continuing process
Creating/anticipating the future
Co-evolution of concepts, processes,
organizations, and technology
New competitive areas/competenciesrevalued
attributes
Fundamental shifts in underlying principles
New sources of power
Changing behavior values, attitudes, beliefs
28
Transformation

• Down at the grange theyre teachin a new way of
  plowin Ya goin?

• Nope!
• I already dont plow as good as I know how ...

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