AGE OF UNCERTAINTY: THE 1990s

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AGE OF UNCERTAINTYTHE 1990s
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AFTER THE COLD WAR, WHAT?

• Reading
• Smith, Talons, ch. 9
• Fukuyama, End of History (CR 1)
• Huntington, Clash of Civilizations (CR 2)
• Muñoz, Goodbye U.S.A? (CR 3)
• Van Klaveren, Political Globalization and Latin
  America (CR 4)

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• OUTLINE
• Changes in the Global Arena
• Dimensions of Uncertainty
• Alternative Scenarios
• Alterations in the Hemisphere
• What Could Latin America Do?
• The 1990s Constraints and Opportunities
• A Menu of Strategic Options
• Anticipating 9/11

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• CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL ARENA
• Collapse of the Soviet Union
• Economic multipolarity Europe, Japan, others?
• U.S. military primacy the unipolar moment
• Transnationalization and non-state actors
• A third wave of democratization?

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• DIMENSIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
• Distributions of power the layer cake model
• Absence of rules of the game
• Hesitancy in the United States

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• ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
• TWO INTERPRETATIONS
• Fukuyama, End of History
• Huntington, Clash of Civilizations

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• ALTERATIONS IN THE HEMISPHERE
• Asymmetry I economic resources
• Asymmetry II patterns of interdependence
• Withdrawal of extra-hemispheric powers
• Implications for U.S.-Latin American relations
• What about Cuba?

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WHAT COULD LATIN AMERICA DO?

• INTRODUCTION
• Dynamics of inter-American relations
• Power asymmetries
• Quest for strategic options

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• THE 1990s CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
• U.S. hegemony
• Ideological consensus (or end of history?)
• Implausibility of revolution
• Fragmentation of Third World

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THE 1990s STRATEGIC OPTIONS Option 1 Trading
Around (Chile) Option 2 Joining with the North
(Mexico) Option 3 Affirming Self-Reliance
(Argentina, Brazil, others) Option 4 Seeking
Extra-hemispheric Partnerships Option 5
Missing? (The Bolivarian Dream)
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Latin America after the Cold War Heraldo Muñoz,
Good-bye U.S.A.? Alberto van Klaveren,
Political Globalization and Latin America
Toward a New Sovereignty?
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• IMPACTS OF 9/11 PRELIMINARY REFLECTIONS
• U.S. powerand vulnerability?
• On stateless enemies
• Implications for global scenarios
• Impacts on Latin America and inter-American
  relations

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Supplementary Readings

• On U.S. imperialism
• 2 Adams on Cuba
• 7 Polk on manifest destiny
• 13 Ostend Manifesto
• 22 Olney Memorandum

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On Latin American reactions 10. Sarmiento on
the United States 21 Martí on the United
States 28 Rodós Ariel 35 Darío to
Roosevelt 47 Ingenieros on imperialism
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U.S. and the Cold War 68 U.S. Congress and
Doolittle Committee 71 Ninth International
Conference of American States 106 Committee of
Santa Fe 108 Reagan on communism 109 CIA on
sabotage 111 DOD on prolonged war
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Latin America and the Cold War 82 C. Wright
Mills 86 Juan José Arévalo 90 Che Guevara
96 Songs of protest 101 Ariel Dorfman and
Armando Mattelart 115 Eduardo Galeano