Electricity Portfolios: RDD

1
Electricity Portfolios RDDD/Policy Linkages

• Or There Must Be Some Way Outta Here - J.
  Hendrix/R. Zimmerman
• Terry Surles
• Hawaii Natural Energy Institute
• October 9, 2007

2
Everyone is not entitled to an opinion. If they
lack knowledge, they do not deserve to have an
opinion.
Sir Winston Churchill
3
Everybody wants to get into da act!
Jimmy Durante
4
Partnerships Critical For Addressing Overarching
Issues Facing U.S. Energy Infrastructure
Electricity System Issues
Environment Quality Life cycle analyses
Grid Modernization Renewable and DG Peak
Demand Grid Stability
Global Climate Change
Energy Security Oil from grumpy nations,
Critical Infrastructure Protection
Environment Quality
None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without
Partnerships
5
EIAs Annual Energy Outlook Projections
6
World Electricity Consumption
Natural Gas 25
Nuclear12
Natural Gas 18
Coal 37
Nuclear 16
Renewables19
Renewables 20
Oil 7
Coal 38
Oil 8
61 Growth
2001 161 Quads
2025 259 Quads
Worldwide electricity consumption is projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 between
2001 - 2025
Source IEO2004, Table 16
7
U.S. Electricity Consumption
Renewables9
Natural Gas 16
Renewables 9
Coal 55
Natural Gas 14
Coal 53
Nuclear18
Nuclear 21
33 Growth
Oil 2
Oil 3
2005
2025
Source AEO2006, Table 8
8
Electricity Generation by Source 2003
Hawaii
United States
Sources HECO and KIUC RPS Reports, FERC Form 1
or Annual Reports to PUC, and IPP reports to US
EIA
Source USEIA
9
US Petroleum Imports Rise Inexorably - And at
80/bbl
Source EIA
10
Incremental ME Crude Production
11
Drivers of Climate Change Its Getting Worse

• Annual fossil CO2 emissions increased from an
  average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2
  GtC per year in 2000-2005
• CO2 radiative forcing increased by 20 from 1995
  to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least
  the last 200 years (since the start of the
  Industrial Era)

12
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with
time
Period Rate Years ?/decade
13
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Technology is a Key Significant Advances Needed
to Achieve the Base Case
where todays technology will take us

• 2100
• 75 of electricity non-fossil
• End-use efficiency increases 1/yr
• 2050
• Electric generation 67 efficient
• Passenger vehicles average 50mpg

Stabilization pathway
1300 GT C
Where more advanced versions of current
technologies will take us
480 GT C
Path we need to be on to stabilize atmospheric
CO2
To stabilize at 550ppm, Carbon/GDP must be lt10
of todays by 2100
15
Carbon Management No Silver Bullet, Need to
Track Life Cycles
Carbon Management
Decarbonization CO2 Btu
Sequestration
Efficiency
CO2 atm CO2 emitted
lt
lt
lt
Btu GDP

• Regional Partnerships
• Capture/storage

• End-use Technologies
• Demand response

• Nuclear
• Renewables

16
1 Billion Tonnes Carbon per Year Each (And We
Emit 7.2 GT)
Source R. Socolow, Stanford H2 Workshop, 2003
17
End-Use Energy Efficiency
18
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the
United States Similar to voluntary US goals
International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA
(Energy Information Agency)
2
- 2.7
- 3.4
Average - 0.7
1
0
1984
1989
1994
1981
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-1
-2
-3
-4
IEA data
EIA data
-5
-6
19
United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
2000
Estimated Standby
1800
Power (per house)
1600
1400
Refrigerator Use per
1978 Cal Standard
Unit
1200
1987 Cal Standard
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
1000
1980 Cal Standard
800
1990 Federal
600
Standard
400
1993 Federal
Standard
2001 Federal
200
Standard
0
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
20
Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million
Refrigerators Freezers in the US
60
50
40
30
GW
capacity saved
capacity needed
20
10
0
at 1974 efficiency
at 2001 efficiency
21
Focus Needs to be on Buildings Huge Opportunities
Buildings use 71 of electricity
Wash 5
Cooking 5
Computers 1
Electronics 5
Other 4
Industry 33
Buildings 39
Refrigeration 9
21
Heating 32
Cooling 10
Transportation 28
Water Heat 13
Lights 12
18
Other 10
Cooking 2
Computers 3
Lights 28
Residential
Refrigeration 4
Ventilation 7
Commercial
Office Equip 7
Heating 16
Water Heat 7
Cooling 13
Source 2004 Buildings Energy Databook with SEDS
distributed to all end-uses
22
Moving Toward Zero Energy Homes
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

• Homes that are highly energy efficient and
  produce all their own energyannually
• Todays marketable ZEHcut utility bills at least
  50 using EE renewable energy
• Tomorrows ZEHEnergy savings of 50-70 plus
  30-50 on-site renewable energy
• Integrate/optimize best components for whole
  house design by climate zone

23
59 Elect. Bill Savings
24
ZEH Design Leads to Reduced Peak Demand
4.5
Average 2003 New Home
4
3.5
3
2.5
Demand (kW/home)
2
1.5
1
0.5
Super Peak
Peak
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Hour
25
Technology Goal Make Decision-Making Easier for
Consumers

• Choices that reduce energy use while addressing
  non-energy issues that Joe Bagadonitz cares
  about.
• Design Choices Ducts in conditioned space
• Operational Choices 1. Classroom lighting system
  with high efficiency uplighting and downlighting,
  occupancy sensing, and daylighting control (lower
  property taxes)
• Technology Choices Residential Table Lamp
  (CEC/EPA) (Est.. savings potential226M over the
  next 10 years based on 113 savings/fixture and
  20,000 fixtures/yr)
• Ventilation Technologies and Standards Identify
  opportunities for improving T24 for energy
  efficiency and state of the art knowledge about
  maintaining healthy indoor environments. (Est.
  savings is 35MW assuming 59,000 new RCs by
  increasing technology efficiency by 20 in the
  next 10 yrs

26
Colored Cool Roof Project
Available now

• Standing seam
• Clay tile

In development

• Concrete tile
• Composition

27
Demand Response in Residential Commercial
Buildings Reduction in Peak Demand Allows for
Reduced Power Plant Construction
Cost of Avoided Load 100-200 per kW
Price/Proxy/Curtailment Signal1
Communicating Thermostat ?502
Load Data1
Interval Meter ?1001
1. Utility responsible for signal,
communications, meter, and load data. 2. Builder
responsible for communicating thermostat.
28
Program Priority for Energy Intensive Industries
that Impact the Economy, Employment and the
Environment
29
RENEWABLE ENERGY
30
World Energy Supply andthe Role of Renewable
Energy
Source OECD/IEA, 2004
31
U.S. Energy Consumption andthe Role of
Renewable Energy
Source Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2006, Table D4
32
Renewable Electricity Overview
U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2005
Solar 1
Wind 19
Geothermal 15
Biomass 65
Total 4,055 Billion KWh Electric Utility Plants
63 Independent Power Producers Combined
Heat and Power Plants 37.0
33
What is Possible for Renewable Electricity
Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards
Total Estimated Solar Capacity Driven by State
RPS Set-Asides
(assuming full compliance with mandates)
2010 400 MW to 500 MW 2015 1,200 MW to 1,400
MW 2020 2,800 MW to 3,200 MW 2030 3,700 MW to
4,300 MW
Western Governors Association 2015 Goal

• Clean Energy 30,000 MW
• Solar 8,000 MW
• Wind 5,000 to 9,000 MW

• Geothermal 5,600 MW
• Energy Efficiency 40,000 MW

34
Wind

• Status
• 11,603 MW
• Cost 4-6/kWh (unsubsidized)
• Potential
• 3/kWh (onshore) by 2012
• 5/kWh (offshore) by 2012

• Research Thrusts
• Low-wind speed turbines
• Advanced power electronics
• Technology transfer to ocean-based systems

Source U.S. Department of Energy
35
Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide
Jan 2007 Cumulative MW 71,476 Rest of World
11,043 North America 13,054 U.S.
11,603MW Canada 1,451MW Europe
47,379
MW Installed
Sources BTM Consult Aps, March 2005
Windpower Monthly, January 2007 NREL
Estimate for 2007
36
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GE WindEnergy 3.6 MW Turbine
Arklow Banks Windfarm The Irish Sea
Photo R. Thresher
38
Sizes and Applications

• Small (?10 kW)
• Homes (Grid
• connected)
• Farms
• Remote Applications
• (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom
  sites, icemaking)

• Intermediate
• (10-500 kW)
• Village Power
• Hybrid Systems
• Distributed Power

• Large (500 kW 6 MW)
• Central Station Wind Farms
• Distributed Power
• Offshore Wind Generation
• Stations

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SolarPhotovoltaics and Concentrating Solar Power

• Status in U.S.
• PV
• 526 MW
• Cost 18-23/kWh
• CSP
• 355 MW
• Cost 12/kWh
• Potential
• PV
• 11-18/kWh by 2010
• 5-10 /kWh by 2015
• CSP
• 8.5 /kWh by 2010
• 6 /kWh by 2015

• Goal Cost Reduction

Source U.S. Department of Energy, IEA Updated
November 8, 2006
41
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40
Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction
(2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction
(2-terminal, monolithic)
Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
Boeing- Spectrolab
NREL (inverted, semi- mismatched)
36
Spectrolab
Japan Energy
32
NREL/ Spectrolab
NREL
NREL
28
UNSW
UNSW
24
UNSW
Spire
UNSW
NREL Cu(In,Ga)Se2 14x concentration
UNSW
Stanford
Spire
FhG-ISE
Efficiency ()
UNSW
ARCO
Georgia Tech
20
Sharp
Georgia Tech
Westing- house
NREL
Varian
NREL
NREL
NREL
AstroPower (small area)
NREL
NREL (CdTe/CIS)
16
NREL
UniversitySo. Florida
No. Carolina State University
NREL
Univ. Stuttgart (45µm thin-film transfer)
NREL
Euro-CIS
Sharp ( large area)
Boeing
United Solar
ARCO
Solarex
Boeing
Kodak
12
Boeing
PFL
AMETEK
Photon Energy
Matsushita
United Solar
Kaneka (2µm on glass)
Kodak
Boeing
Solarex
8
Monosolar
RCA
Boeing
University of Maine
4
RCA
RCA
RCA
RCA
RCA
RCA
0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
2005
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CSP Technologies

• Dispatchable Central Station Power
• Parabolic trough
• Power tower
• Non-Dispatchable Central Station or Distributed
  Power
• Dish/Engine
• Concentrating PV

45
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Geothermal Energy
47
Geothermal Energy Increasingly Competitive
1980 10-16 cents/kWh
2007 5-8 cents/kWh

• Improved technology
• Reduced drilling costs
• Expanding resource base

2011 Goal Less than 5 cents/kWh (prior to budget
reductions)
Current Power Purchase Agreements are about 6 to
6.5 /kWh
48
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49
Biomass Energy
Poplars
Wood chips
Switch grass
Fats and Oils
Municipal solid waste
Corn Stover
50
Well-to-Wheels Analysis Biofuel System
51
Biomass/Biofuels Status

• Biopower
• Grid-connected capacity
• 9700 MW direct combustion
• 400 MW co-firing
• Biopower electricity prices generally range from
  8-12/kWh
• Biofuels
• Biodiesel 30 million gallons (2004)
• Corn ethanol
• 81 commercial plants
• 3.4 billion gallons (2004)
• 1.22/gal
• Cellulosic ethanol
• 2.49/gal
• Not commercially available

Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco
Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy
Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from
agricultural and industrial operations.

• World biomass electricity capacity (2004) 36 GW
• World biofuels production capacity (2004)
  ethanol 32 billion l/yr biodiesel 2.2 billion
  l/yr
• Source Worldwatch Institute

52
Brazilthe Saudi Arabia of biofuelsis currently
the only country that truly has a large, viable
industry Although the US ethanol market is
also sizable.
/bbl
53
Previous Slide Noted Lack of Profitability
Heres Another Version
Source EIA
54
Future of Liquid Biofuels Scott Turns
Presentation Next Week

• For ethanol production to reach its full
  potential it must use feedstocks beyond food.
• US Department of Energy studies found that the
  potential annual production of cellulose for fuel
  use was 1.3 billion tons
• This is enough for 350 billion liters of ethanol
• 30 of projected US gasoline consumption on an
  energy basis
• Research today is focused on producing ethanol
  and other fuels from cellulose
• Bio-Diesel may offer best hope for Hawaii
• Current national work focused on soy
• Potential for Hawaii with tropical oils

55
Wave Technology Examples
Point Absorbers
OPT PowerBuoy
Overtopping Wave Dragon
Attenuator OPD Pelamis
56
Ocean Tidal Current Technology
Verdant Horizontal Axis East River, NY
Hydro Open Center Turbine Gulf Stream
Gorlov Helical Vertical Axis Merrimack River,
Underwater Electric Kite Merrimack River,
Lunar Energy, Rotech Tidal Turbine
MCT SeaFlow Experimental Test
57
Ocean Renewable Device Types

• 81 wave, tidal, OTEC, and salinity devices in
  development worldwide
• 2x industry growth from 2003 to 2006
• Only 14 full scale devices deployed at sea.
• Only 3 in the USA

Ocean Energy Device Types ()
58
What is Possible for Renewable Electricity
Renewable Electricity Impact on Total U.S.
Electricity
kWhr
28 of kWhr by 2030
(in Billions)
Ocean 1
Geothermal 8
CSP 3
PV 13
Wind 35
DER 9
Buildings Efficiency 31
59
Renewable and Other Distributed Energy on the Grid

• Systems RDD Required
• Technical Standards and Testing
• Power Conversion and Conditioning
• Protection and Load Control
• Communications
• Metering
• Training and Education
• Modeling and Simulation

Bulk Power
Substation
Distribution System
Transmission System
sensors
Load Management
Communication RDD Information Flow, Data
Management, Monitor/Control
Interconnection
Combined Heat Power
Distributed Generation
60
Barriers to DG (Renewable) Implementation

• Potential for negative (stability and
  intermittency) grid impacts
• Utility resistance
• overly strict interconnection requirements
• high grid-access charges (stranded cost recovery)
• Permitting headaches aesthetic issues
• High standby/spinning reserve power costs for
  utility
• Capital constraints
• Performance risk and guarantees

61
Impact of Renewables on Grid Stability Big
Island Challenges
62
2.0 Performance Analysis (PSLF)One-hour
Validation on April 3, 2007
Frequency
Time (seconds)
Apollo Output Power (disturbance)
Time (seconds)
Following slide
63
Storage Applications Throughout the Electrical
System
64
Multiple Storage Technologies for Varied
Applications
65
NUCLEAR
66
Nuclear Should Remain an OptionBUT

• Cost
• Waste disposal
• Health and safety
• Proliferation

67
U.S. electricity production costs
1995-2005 (averages in 2005 cents per
kilowatt-hour)
68
Generation III solid nuclear power plant
economics

• Strong safety record
• High average capacity factor
• 90 in 2005
• Decreasing production costs
• 30 percent in the last ten years
• 1.72 cents/KWH
• Performance excellence through power uprates
• Gain of 4,183 MWe
• Renewals continue
• 48 complete
• 38 filed or announced
• Life after 60?

69
Generation III building a new generation of
nuclear power plants

• Nuclear Regulatory Commission is accepting
  applications for design certifications and
  operating licenses
• Gen III designs
• Nuclear Power 2010 launched by Department of
  Energy in 2002
• Reduces technical, regulatory and institutional
  barriers to building new plants
• Shares costs between government and private
  industry to meet future energy needs
• EPACT 2005 enacted federal risk insurance,
  production tax credits and loan guarantees for
  low emission technologies

70
Generation IV developing advanced nuclear
energy systems
Switzerland
U.S.A.
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Canada
France
China
Japan
Euratom

• Governments sponsoring RD necessary to establish
  the viability of next generation nuclear energy
  systems
• Requirements/challenges
• U.S. focus is on very high temperature reactor
  (VHTR) for process heat and hydrogen, and sodium
  cooled fast reactor (SFR) for actinide burning
• System arrangements for SFR and VHTR were signed
  last year
• Project arrangement for SFR advanced fuels signed
  this year
• Numerous other project arrangements nearing
  signature
• Significant benefit to investment from
  international collaboration

71
Globalizing the benefits of nuclear energy a
closed fuel cycle is necessary

• As nuclear expands, a greater number of nations
  could develop their own fuel cycle facilities
• Waste disposal, proliferation, and recycling
  waste will be the major issue for expansion of
  nuclear energy
• Uranium resources could be strained in future

A global partnership and advanced recycling
technologies are needed to ensure that nuclear
energy expands safely and securely
72
COAL
73
Challenges for Advanced Coal Technologies
Domestic Resource Vs. Climate Change

• High perceived risk given limited commercial
  history
• Limited current market for IGCC
• Cost and reliability concerns
• Extent / timing of new environmental regulations
  uncertain (e.g. CO2)
• Cost / risk sharing incentives lacking
• Advanced coal versus conventional coal
• gt40 GW (100 units) of U.S. planned additions
  have been announced at present, nearly all
  conventional pulverized coal
• At 1,000/kW this represents gt40 billion in new
  investment in coal power
• Advanced technologies not being selected
• Industrial infrastructure not robust
• Technology selection and design guidance needed

74
Integrated Technology Systems

• The ultimate Clean Coal Program Goal is to
  integrate the RD technologies into high
  efficiency, near-zero emission coal based
  energy-plexes. Key systems for integration
  include Multi-Pollutant controls and IGCC
  systems.
• The ultimate manifestation of the integrated
  system goal is the FutureGen project, which seeks
  to integrate high efficiency IGCC power
  production with hydrogen production and carbon
  sequestration.

75
Critical RD TechnologiesTurbine Systems

• RD Focus
• Development of advanced gas turbines to burn
  hydrogen, leading to near-zero emissions is one
  key to the development of fully integrated
  zero-emission coal-based systems.
• Design of new combustors and controls is being
  pursued for hydrogen turbines. High hydrogen
  concentrations create high NOx emissions due to
  poorer heat transfer characteristics and hotter
  flame temperatures.
• New turbines for serving oxy-combustor systems
  that produce higher pressure and temperature
  gases, also result in easily-separable water and
  carbon dioxide emissions

76
Critical RD TechnologiesFuel Cells

• RD Focus
• The low-cost SECA fuel cell systems goal is to
  reduce the capital cost of fuel cell modules by a
  factor of ten by 2010. At this price, fuel cells
  could compete with gas turbines and diesel
  gen-sets and gain widespread market acceptance.
• SECA approach is to develop 3 to 10 kW modules
  that can be mass-produced, and coupled to create
  Distributed Generation, stationary, and small
  central power stations.
• Additional goals include a 60 efficiency, design
  life of 40,000 hours 3,000 hour maintenance
  interval and near-zero emissions.
• Solid Oxide fuel cells operate at 800C, making
  integration with thermal units (micro-turbines)
  more practical. Best potential for distributed
  Combined Heat and Power systems

77
Carbon Sequestration An answer for continued
use of domestic energy resources

• Two major challenges for economically viable,
  environmentally acceptable CCS
• Lower cost capture currently up to 35 cost
  penalty on PVC systems
• Reducing uncertainty of storage permanence,
  safety, etc.
• Need to resolve both to gain acceptance to keep
  coal as option and hedge bets on Integrated
  Gasification/Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal-fired
  power plants

78
Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships Validat
ion Phase Field Tests
Injecting between 750 525,000 tons of CO2

• Representing
• gt400 Organizations
• 40 States
• 4 Canadian Provinces
• 3 Indian Nations
• 34 cost share

Big Sky
PCOR
MRCSP
MGSC
WESTCARB
Field Test Type
Southwest
Southeast
Oil bearing (9)
Gas bearing (1)
Saline formation (10)
Coal seam (5)
Terrestrial (11)
79
Coal Plant CO2 Emissions and CO2 Storage Capacity
3,700,000
200,000,000
/\/\/\/\
This represents 1,990 years of US storage and
40,800 years of world storage at current CO2
emissions levels.
80
Sleipner Project, North Sea

• 1996 to present
• 1 Mt CO2 injection/yr
• Seismic monitoring

Picture compliments of Statoil and LBNL
81
Weyburn CO2-EOR and Storage Project

• 2000 to present
• 2.7 Mt/year CO2 injection
• CO2 from the Dakota Gasification Plant in the
  U.S.

Photos and map courtesy of PTRC, Encana, and LBNL
82
In Salah Gas Project
Gas Processing and CO2 Separation Facility
In Salah Gas Project - Krechba, Algeria Gas
Purification - Amine Extraction 1 Mt/year CO2
Injection Operations Commence - June, 2004
Slide courtesy of BP and LBNL
83
Biggest Risks Have Been Identified

• Leakage through poor quality or aging injection
  well completions
• Leakage up abandoned wells
• Leakage due to inadequate caprock
  characterization
• Inconsistent or inadequate monitoring

Maturation of the technology and improved
regulations have mitigated most of these
problems for the industrial analogues
84
Temporal Evolution of Trapping Mechanisms
Storage security should increase with time at an
effective storage site.
Theoretical and experimental studies are needed
to confirm this hypothesis.
85
Implications of Longer-Term Monitoring - Who Has
the Liability?

• 1000 year period (Yucca-lite?)
• Repeat seismic surveys every 10 years
• 10 increase in cost over and above other CCS
  costs
• Non-financial issues
• Responsibility for monitoring
• Oversight and record keeping
• Responsibility for remediation

86
Looking Forward Integration of Transportation
and Electricity

• Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Integration of
  transportation and electricity sectors can
  provide solutions

87
Maintaining a Balanced Technology Portfolio

• More efficient use of energy is the best way to
  reduce all pollution
• Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy mix
• Renewables will become more viable
• Distributed energy resources can develop a
  viable, potentially significant economic niche
• Nuclear power must remain an option

88
Integration of RDDD Initiatives Need to
Connect Basic, Development, Applied Activities
with Public Policies
Basic and Applied Research
Fundamental Understanding
Technical Needs
Pilot and Demonstration Projects
Fundamental Understanding
Technology
Industrial Scale Projects
89
New Regulations and Policies Can Provide
Incentives to Bridge the Valley of Death
New Energy Idea
Proof of Concept
Self Sustaining Market
Technology Development
International Market
Valley of Death
90
HNEI Linking RD and Public Policy to
Commercialization Process
Institutional Issues Regulations Incentives
Government