AcidTesting Beliefs: A Taxonomy of Epistemological Style

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Acid-Testing Beliefs A Taxonomy of
Epistemological Style   Mihnea Moldoveanu Peter
A. Heslin CCMF Center for Integrative
Thinking Rotman School of Management University
of Toronto
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Epistemological Style strategy for selecting,
adjudicating, and discarding/retaining beliefs
Justificationism
Falsificationism
search for true belief
critical, disconfirmatory tests
Dogmatic justificationism
Dogmatic falsificationism
Circular justificationism
Naïve methodological falsificationism
Regressive justificationism
Sophisticated methodological falsificationism
(SMF)
Why is SMF so rare?
Can SMF be cultivated?
Does epistemological style matter?
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Taxonomy of Epistemological Style
Justificationist
Falsificationist
Dogmatic justificationism
Dogmatic falsificationism
self-evidently true
zealously tests rejects
? Not justified or true belief
? Assumes evidence is flawless
Circular justificationism
Naïve methodological falsificationism
follows logically
chooses between beliefs evidence
? Insulates from contradiction
? Belief promiscuity/proliferation
Regressive justificationism
Soph. methodological falsificationism
searching for reasons
insists on belief choice
? Distracts attention from defendant
? Resource intensive
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Why is SMF so rare ?
Dysfunctional behaviors
Human needs
Confirmation/hindsight bias
Need for closure
Predictability
Deference to authority
Coherence
Self-fulfilling prophesies
Consistency
Escalation of commitment
Personal identity
Groupthink
Social harmony
The sign of a first rate mind is ability to hold
two contradictory beliefs and retain the
ability to function. - F. Scott Fitzgerald
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Can SMF be cultivated?
Requirements

• Holding beliefs provisionally
• Intellectual honesty (Popper, 1959, 1999)
• Recalling predictive successes failures
  (Lakatos, 1970)

Potential methods

• Conditionalization
• Requiring / playing the devils advocate
• Removing incentives to be right
• Awareness of epistemological styles

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Does epistemological style matter?
People/organizations always believe something
use their beliefs as a basis for action -
Argyris (1993)
to believe rationally, one must believe with
insight . and part of the necessary insight is
about how we believe our beliefs -
Habermas (1991)
Cautionary tale