Title: Drought Monitoring Tools at the NDMC: Just what is the Drought Monitor Rationale, Process and Needs
1Drought Monitoring Tools at the NDMCJust what
is the Drought Monitor?Rationale, Process and
Needs
- Brian Fuchs, Climatologist
- National Drought Mitigation Center
- University of Nebraska-Lincoln
USDA-RMA Workshop, Bismarck, ND October 22, 2007
2Moving toward state-level trend analysis
capabilities (left) and providing more
county-level drought assessment information
(right).
3The U.S. Drought Monitor
Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the
NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map
-- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from
numerous federal and non-federal partners
4The Drought Monitor Concept
- A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAAs
CPC and NCDC (authors) - Incorporate relevant information and products
from all entities (and levels of government)
dealing with drought (RCCs, SCs, federal/state
agencies, etc.) (experts) - The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and
provides a general up-to-date summary of current
drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto
Rico and the Pacific possessions
5The Drought Monitor Concept
- A consolidation of indices and indicators into
one comprehensive national drought map - Trying to capture these characteristics
- the droughts magnitude (duration intensity)
- spatial extent
- probability of occurrence
- Impacts
- Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks
6Original Objectives
- Fujita-like scale
- NOT a forecast!
- NOT a drought declaration!
- Identify impacts (A, H)
- Assessment of current conditions
- Incorporate local expert input
- Be as objective as possible
7U.S. Drought Monitor Map
Drought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30tile)
D1 Drought Moderate (20tile)
D2 Drought Severe (10tile)
D3 Drought Extreme (5tile)
D4 Drought Exceptional (2tile)
8Key Variables For Monitoring Drought
- climate data
- soil moisture
- stream flow
- ground water
- reservoir and lake levels
- snow pack
- short, medium, and long range forecasts
- vegetation health/stress and fire danger
9U.S. Drought Monitor
- Integrates Key
- Drought Indicators
- - Palmer Drought Index
- - SPI
- - KBDI
- Modeled Soil Moisture
- - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow
- - Precipitation Anomalies
- Growing Season
- - Crop Moisture Index
- - Sat. Veg. Health Index
- Soil Moisture
- Mesonet data
- In The West
- - SWSI
- - Reservoir levels
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22ARCHIVE EXAMPLE???
23Use of the DM in Decision Making
- USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03
- USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger
- Numerous states use as a drought trigger
(Governors declarations) - 2006 USDA Livestock Assistance
- 2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)
24The Making of a New Drought Atlas
Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought
Mitigation Center School of Natural
Resources University of Nebraska
United States Drought Monitor Forum October
10-11, 2007
25The goal of the atlas is to provide usable tools
and products for users at all levels by giving
them the ability to visualize and assess their
drought risk through a variety of web-based
options. The example above shows how producers
and other decision makers can assess drought at a
variety of time scales and at user-defined
spatial levels.
26Bismarck, North Dakota
27Initial Data Criteria
- ACIS query of all available stations
- Current station (open)
- 80 of data valid for Period of Record
- At least 15 years of data present
28Station Inventory after initial threshold tests
- 4055 stations for the contiguous 48 states
- 3602 with greater than 30 years of data
- 2308 with greater than 60 years of data
- 1652 with greater than 80 years of data
29Data Gap Analysis
- No more than 2 consecutive months missing at any
time in the POR - Established unique start dates for each station
- Contracted with HPRCC to key-enter data from
WSSRD that is not currently digitized - Established Precipitation and Temperature station
lists
30Stations used for SPI Analysis
- 2533 Stations with 30 or more years of data
meeting all criteria - 316 stations with 100 years of data
- 482 stations with 90 years of data
- 724 stations with 80 years of data
- 952 stations with 70 years of data
- 1244 stations with 60 years of data
- 1775 stations with 50 years of data
31Thousand Oaks California 2007
2533 Stations
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342144 Stations
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361774 Stations
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38Stations used for PDSI Analysis
- 2263 stations with 30 or more years of data
meeting all criteria - 255 stations with 100 years of data
- 399 stations with 90 years of data
- 588 stations with 80 years of data
- 781 stations with 70 years of data
- 1032 stations with 60 years of data
- 1543 stations with 50 years of data
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41Where we are going
- Develop serially complete data set using QA/QC
techniques developed and tested at HPRCC - Group stations using a cluster analysis
generating L-Moments for each cluster using
techniques developed by Hosking and Wallis
(sharing results with SCs, RCCs and others to
solicit feedback) - Use Nebraska/Kansas as our test case to see if
there are any problems in the input/output of the
project - If satisfied, run SPI for all of the 48 states
- Continue with PDSI and Deciles using the same
approach -
42Thank you! Please visit us at http//drought.un
l.edu/ Please contact me at bfuchs2_at_unl.edu
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