Drought Monitoring Tools at the NDMC: Just what is the Drought Monitor Rationale, Process and Needs

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Drought Monitoring Tools at the NDMCJust what
is the Drought Monitor?Rationale, Process and
Needs

• Brian Fuchs, Climatologist
• National Drought Mitigation Center
• University of Nebraska-Lincoln

USDA-RMA Workshop, Bismarck, ND October 22, 2007
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Moving toward state-level trend analysis
capabilities (left) and providing more
county-level drought assessment information
(right).
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The U.S. Drought Monitor
Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the
NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map
-- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from
numerous federal and non-federal partners
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The Drought Monitor Concept

• A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAAs
  CPC and NCDC (authors)
• Incorporate relevant information and products
  from all entities (and levels of government)
  dealing with drought (RCCs, SCs, federal/state
  agencies, etc.) (experts)
• The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and
  provides a general up-to-date summary of current
  drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto
  Rico and the Pacific possessions

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The Drought Monitor Concept

• A consolidation of indices and indicators into
  one comprehensive national drought map
• Trying to capture these characteristics
• the droughts magnitude (duration intensity)
• spatial extent
• probability of occurrence
• Impacts
• Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

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Original Objectives

• Fujita-like scale
• NOT a forecast!
• NOT a drought declaration!
• Identify impacts (A, H)
• Assessment of current conditions
• Incorporate local expert input
• Be as objective as possible

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U.S. Drought Monitor Map
Drought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30tile)
D1 Drought Moderate (20tile)
D2 Drought Severe (10tile)
D3 Drought Extreme (5tile)
D4 Drought Exceptional (2tile)
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Key Variables For Monitoring Drought

• climate data
• soil moisture
• stream flow
• ground water
• reservoir and lake levels
• snow pack
• short, medium, and long range forecasts
• vegetation health/stress and fire danger

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U.S. Drought Monitor

• Integrates Key
• Drought Indicators
• - Palmer Drought Index
• - SPI
• - KBDI
• Modeled Soil Moisture
• - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow
• - Precipitation Anomalies
• Growing Season
• - Crop Moisture Index
• - Sat. Veg. Health Index
• Soil Moisture
• Mesonet data
• In The West
• - SWSI
• - Reservoir levels

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ARCHIVE EXAMPLE???
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Use of the DM in Decision Making

• USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03
• USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger
• Numerous states use as a drought trigger
  (Governors declarations)
• 2006 USDA Livestock Assistance
• 2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)

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The Making of a New Drought Atlas
Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought
Mitigation Center School of Natural
Resources University of Nebraska
United States Drought Monitor Forum October
10-11, 2007
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The goal of the atlas is to provide usable tools
and products for users at all levels by giving
them the ability to visualize and assess their
drought risk through a variety of web-based
options. The example above shows how producers
and other decision makers can assess drought at a
variety of time scales and at user-defined
spatial levels.
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Bismarck, North Dakota
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Initial Data Criteria

• ACIS query of all available stations
• Current station (open)
• 80 of data valid for Period of Record
• At least 15 years of data present

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Station Inventory after initial threshold tests

• 4055 stations for the contiguous 48 states
• 3602 with greater than 30 years of data
• 2308 with greater than 60 years of data
• 1652 with greater than 80 years of data

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Data Gap Analysis

• No more than 2 consecutive months missing at any
  time in the POR
• Established unique start dates for each station
• Contracted with HPRCC to key-enter data from
  WSSRD that is not currently digitized
• Established Precipitation and Temperature station
  lists

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Stations used for SPI Analysis

• 2533 Stations with 30 or more years of data
  meeting all criteria
• 316 stations with 100 years of data
• 482 stations with 90 years of data
• 724 stations with 80 years of data
• 952 stations with 70 years of data
• 1244 stations with 60 years of data
• 1775 stations with 50 years of data

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Thousand Oaks California 2007
2533 Stations
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2144 Stations
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1774 Stations
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Stations used for PDSI Analysis

• 2263 stations with 30 or more years of data
  meeting all criteria
• 255 stations with 100 years of data
• 399 stations with 90 years of data
• 588 stations with 80 years of data
• 781 stations with 70 years of data
• 1032 stations with 60 years of data
• 1543 stations with 50 years of data

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Where we are going

• Develop serially complete data set using QA/QC
  techniques developed and tested at HPRCC
• Group stations using a cluster analysis
  generating L-Moments for each cluster using
  techniques developed by Hosking and Wallis
  (sharing results with SCs, RCCs and others to
  solicit feedback)
• Use Nebraska/Kansas as our test case to see if
  there are any problems in the input/output of the
  project
• If satisfied, run SPI for all of the 48 states
• Continue with PDSI and Deciles using the same
  approach

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Thank you! Please visit us at http//drought.un
l.edu/ Please contact me at bfuchs2_at_unl.edu
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