Prosperity without growth

1
(No Transcript)
2
(No Transcript)
3
Sustainable Development if this is the aim
then what?
4
Two very important provisos
Poor countries need growth to lift themselves out
of absolute poverty
Under current conditions, de-growth is
not sustainable
5
social wellbeing stratified
Are we prosperous?
In what way are we not prosperous?
No
ecological damage
economically unstable
Yes
The logic consequences of growth
What drives this process?
Could we make growth ecologically OK?
yes with decoupling
is there any evidence of decoupling?
address social logic of consumption
green new deal
No
governance for ecological limits
new data systems
SO WHAT NEXT?
fiscal reform
macro economics SD
6
Are we prosperous?

• OUTCOMES
• Ecological impact of our current approach to
  prosperity
• 60 of ecosystems are degraded
• Dangerous climate change
• Social outcomes of existing economic activities
• Islands of prosperity in oceans of poverty
• Poorest 20 have 2 of income
• 1bn people live on less 1/day
• Psychological evidence of wellbeing (for the
  rich)
• Affluenza, obesity, mental illness, drinking
  levels

• DRIVERS
• Size of the global economy ( population growth)
• How can 9bn people live a western lifestyle?
• Mode of economic production (this particular form
  of capitalism)
• Social expectations consumer culture

7
(No Transcript)
8
Does wealth make you happy prosperous?

• What makes individuals happy?
• Subjective happiness income (Easterlin paradox)
• Collective wellbeing income (using country
  level data)
• Changes to this over time

9
The Easterlin paradox
9
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Common conclusions

• Rising income does drive wellbeing measures but
  it tails off ( there are equity reasons why
  developed world does not need more growth)
• Different levels of wellbeing arise for the same
  income level (especially at the lower levels)
• AND these can change over time (due to a variety
  of factors)

14
(No Transcript)
15
Income ecological impact

• What happens to the ecology with growth?
• Ecological damage
• Can we square this circle?
• Yes, if we can decouple ecological impact from
  growth
• Relative decoupling (less impact per unit of gdp)
• Absolute decoupling (total load reduces)

16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Decoupling conclusions

• Relative yes, but
• Absolute no, not presently
• Because of
• I P x A x T
• What level of efficiency would be required?
• Population is growing to 9bn
• If we believe in equality they should have same
  level of income
• Technology helps/hinders

21
(No Transcript)
22
So what next?

• Address social logic of consumption
• Green new deal
• Governance ecological limits
• New data systems
• Fiscal reform (eco-taxes)
• Macro economics SD

23
So what next?

• Address social logic of consumption
• Green new deal
• Governance ecological limits
• New data systems
• Fiscal reform (eco-taxes)
• Macro economics SD

24
Address social logic of consumption

• Recognize the systemic nature of social recession
• Re-capitalise social systems
• Life without shame
• Alternative hedonism
• Downsizing
• Intentional communities (eg Findhorn)

25
So what next?

• Address social logic of consumption
• Green new deal
• Governance ecological limits
• New data systems
• Fiscal reform (eco-taxes)
• Macro economics SD

26
(No Transcript)
27
Priority areas

• Upgrading existing housing stock
• Scaling up renewable energy supply
• Redesigning the national grid
• Promoting sustainable mobility
• Low carbon investments in the public sector
• Skills for a low carbon, sustainable economy

28
So what next?

• Address social logic of consumption
• Green new deal
• Governance ecological limits
• New data systems
• Fiscal reform (eco-taxes)
• Macro economics SD

29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
Summary I

• Respecting ecological limits
• Imposing clearly defined resource/emissions caps
• Implementing fiscal reform for sustainability
• Promoting technology transfer and international
  ecosystem protection

32
Summary II

• Protecting capability for flourishing
• Sharing available work and improving work-life
  balance
• Tackling systemic inequality
• Measuring capabilities and flourishing
• Strengthening human and social capital
• Reversing the culture of consumerism

33
Summary III

• Building a sustainable macro-economy
• Developing macro-economic capability
• Investing in public assets and infrastructures
• Increasing financial and fiscal prudence
• Reforming macro-economic accounting