Causal Reasoning

1
Causal Reasoning

• Observation
• Large text on my Internet screen
• Question
• Why the large text?
• Hypothesis
• Accessibility features are activated
• Evidence
• Normal ways of adjustment dont work.

2
Testing Causal Reasoning

• Does hypothesis account for event?
• Account for all relevant elements
• Suggest a causal agent
• Has analogous hypothesis been shown to be
  accurate?
• Is there a better hypothesis?

3
Causal Analogy

• Observation
• Some got sick at picnic, but not others.
• Question
• Why did some get sick?
• Hypothesis
• The potato salad was bad.
• Evidence
• The sick ones ate the potato salad.

4
Testing Causal Analogy

• Are the cases reported accurately?
• Does hypothesis account for event?
• Account for all relevant elements
• Suggest a causal agent
• Is there a better contrast available?
• Is there a better counter-analogy?

5
Causal Generalization

• Sample of population
• Suspected cause applied to one group.
• Cause withheld from control group.
• Does cause correlate with effect?
• Is the significance beyond coincidence?
• Could a cause produce both effects?
• Does cause consistently precede effect?
• Does cause have a plausible agent?

6
Exercise A1

• Observation
• Birds observed before crash of bomber.
• Question
• What caused crash?
• Hypothesis
• Birds were sucked into engines
• Evidence
• This was the first crash of the new model.
• Evaluation Causal agent is clear and analogous
  examples exist.

7
Exercise A3

• Observation
• Increase in literacy, standard of living,
  economy, and health.
• Question
• What caused these increases?
• Hypothesis
• Increase in population caused them.
• Evidence
• Minds working together solve problems
• Evaluation Other plausible agents exist. How
  about other populous countries?

8
Exercise A5

• Observation
• Dan White killed Mosconni and Milk.
• Question
• Why did he kill them?
• Hypothesis
• Junk foods made White go into frenzy. He was not
  responsible for killings.
• Evidence
• His urge for junk foods was uncontrollable.
• Evaluation Is agent sufficient? Has it happened
  before?

9
Exercise B1

• Causal hypothesis
• An angel on the TV screen
• An electronic phenomenon
• Tests
• Ask others if they see an angel
• Try to duplicate the image mechanically.

10
Exercise B3

• Causal hypothesis
• Americans are less fascinated with small cars.
• Americans cars have improved in quality.
• Tests
• See whether Americans are buying a higher percent
  of medium-sized cars.
• See whether economic factors exist.

11
Exercise D1

• Cause
• Internship program at Mills University
• Effect
• Mills students are more employable.

12
Exercise D3

• Cause
• American health care system is more expensive
  than the Canadian system.
• Effect
• Lower-income Americans visit doctors and
  hospitals less than lower-income Canadians.

13
Exercise E1

• Observation
• Drop in production of goods
• Enumerated causes
• Lazy blue-collar workers
• Government regulations
• New white-collar jobs (conclusion)
• Other plausible causes?
• Out-sourcing to other countries

14
Exercise F1

• Generalization
• Gun ownership can reduce crime.
• Cause
• Fear of confronting victim with a gun
• Effect
• Reduced crime when victims might have guns
• Evaluation
• Are criminals telling the truth?
• Is effect significant?

15
Exercise F3

• Generalization
• Lighting can control hyperactivity.
• Cause
• Switch to incandescent lighting
• Effect
• Reduced hyperactivity
• Evaluation
• Small size of the sample
• Lack of control group
• Unexplained agent
• Lack of consistent results

16
Exercise F5

• Generalization
• Gun training programs reduce crime.
• Cause
• Training in the use of guns
• Effect
• Reduced incidence of rape and robbery
• Evaluation
• No control group (other possible causes?)
• Were citizens of Kennesaw trained?