2003 Refrigerator and Appliance Recycling Program Evaluation

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2003 Refrigerator and Appliance Recycling Program
Evaluation

• CALMAC/MAESTRO Meeting
• San Francisco, CA
• July 26, 2006
• Tami Rasmussen
• tami.rasmussen_at_kema.com

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Acknowledgements

• Study funded through the California public goods
  charge for energy efficiency
• Managed for the CPUC by SCE
• Review and input from the California IOUs
• PGE
• SCE
• SDGE

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Study Objectives

• Verification - To verify
• Participation
• Hard-to-reach rates
• Savings estimates
• Market Potential
• To estimate the program market potential to
  support the development of future program year
  goals
• Appliance Degradation
• To determine the extent to which unit energy
  consumption (UEC) of refrigerators increases as
  the unit ages

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Verification - activities and compliance

• Overall - verified reported activities and
  compliance with program rules
• Discrepancies due to
• Changing definition of program year (from pick-up
  date to request date)
• Some units less than 14 cubic feet included in
  program (some were picked up, others were
  database errors)
• More than two units picked up per location.
• Inconsistent information across utilities and
  program implementers with which to match
  customers. Results reasonable, but not precise.

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Verification - Savings

• One utility accidentally used the wrong deemed
  savings in its report to the Commission.

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Market Potential

• Combined data from multiple sources to estimate
  market potential for recycled refrigerators and
  freezers.
• Sources included
• 2002 Statewide RASS survey for penetration of
  units and discard rates
• 2002 Discarder Survey for discarders in SCE
  territory, to estimate percent of discarded units
  that are working  
• The 2002 RARP evaluation for percent of working
  discards transferred (versus destroyed (landfill
  or recycled))
•  2002 RARP participant data to adjust for size
  and age of participant units

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Estimated Market Potential
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Degradation Analysis -purpose and approach

• Determine extent to which unit energy consumption
  (UEC) increases as unit ages
• Approach
• Compared manufacturers reported UEC (when new) to
  DOE test results (used or old) - 240 units
  available
• Tested analytical models to express increased UEC
  as a function of age and other characteristics

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Degradation Analysis -Limitation of results

• Manufacturer data
• Limited in time
• Varies over the years
• Interpolated among models
• Uncertainty regarding age of metered units
• Used minimum (most recent) and maximum (earliest)
  production dates
• Weak correlation between production date and
  recycler estimate of unit age
• Imprecision matching model numbers
• Found manufacturers UEC for 136 of 240 units

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Degradation Analysis - Results 1
Metered Data as a Proportion of New UEC
Percentage of Units
Proportion of New UEC
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Degradation Analysis - Results 2

• Regression Analysis
• Discernable relationship between age and change
  in UEC
• R2 of 0.60 indicates not all variation in data
  are explained
• Best model
• Shows unit consumption increases with age
• Indicates UEC increases as a function of other
  characteristics such as
• Refrigerator or freezer
• Size (in cubic feet)
• Configuration (side-by-side, top freezer, etc.)
• Sample too small to be definitive

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Full report available at www.calmac.org

• http//www.calmac.org/publications/2003_EMV_RARP
  _Study.pdf