Beyond Oil: Two Roads Diverge

1
Beyond OilTwo Roads Diverge
David Hawkins, NRDC April 2006
2
The Road Not Taken

• Two roads diverged in a wood, and I
• I took the one less traveled by,
• And that has made all the difference.
• Robert Frost, 1920

3
Two paths to replacing oil

• Green
• Hybrid vehicles
• Plug-in hybrids w/clean electricity
• Low GHG biofuels
• H2 from renewables or coal w/CCS?
• CO2 for EOR

• Brown
• Oil shale
• Tar sands
• Corn ethanol w/dirty heat input
• Coal liquids w/o CCS
• H2 from coal w/o CCS

4
Impacts of Fossil Substitutes for Oil

• Global Warming Pollution
• Conventional Pollution
• Mining Impacts

5
Global Warming Imperatives

• Use of fossil fuels must fit within a finite
  budget for CO2 emissions.
• Likely will need 60-80 cuts in current global
  CO2 emissions this century.
• Large reductions in CO2 emissions for transport
  fuels compared to crude will be needed.

6
Cutting U.S. emissions in half
3
2.6
2.5
2
1.8
GtC
1.5
1
0.9
0.5
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
After Pacala and Socolow, 2004 ARI CarBen3
Spreadsheet
7
Cutting U.S. emissions in half
3
2.6
2.5
Electricity end-use efficiency
2
1.8
Vehicle and transportation efficiency
GtC
1.5
Renewables
CCS Supply efficiency
1
0.9
0.5
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
After Pacala and Socolow, 2004 ARI CarBen3
Spreadsheet
8
Carbon Reductions from US BAU in 2050
9
WTW CO2 emissions compared

• Tar sands, oil shale, coal liquids, fossil H2 all
  have substantially higher WTW CO2 emissions than
  crude if production CO2 vented.
• Even if production CO2 is captured WTW emissions
  of fossil substitutes may not be compatible with
  climate protection.

10
Slow start, crash finish
11
Conventional Air Pollutants

• Conventional pollutant caps do not apply to most
  oil substitute production.
• Large-scale CTL program could result in
  significant SOx, NOx, particulate, and mercury
  emissions

12
Mining Impacts

• Current coal mining practices already taking a
  toll.
• Potential expansion of mining of coal, shale,
  tar sands could produce major land and water
  impacts.

13
Photo credit J. Henry Fair, www.jhenryfair.com
14
Photo credit J. Henry Fair, www.jhenryfair.com
15
Photo credit J. Henry Fair, www.jhenryfair.com
16
Photo credit Chris Evans, the Pembina Institute
17
The Road Not Taken

• Two roads diverged in a wood, and I
• I took the one less traveled by,
• And that has made all the difference.
• Robert Frost, 1920