ESM220 Ecological Risk Assessment

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ESM220 Ecological Risk Assessment

• Jan 8, 2008
• Review Syllabus
• Decision on Suter book - hard copy and/or ecopy
• Additional resources
• Scope of ERA class
• Risk terminology
• A brief history of risk

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Additional Resources

• Bernstein, P.L. 1996. Against the Gods The
  Remarkable Story of Risk. New York Wiley Sons.
  383 p.
• Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
  Ecological Risk Assessment Advisory Group
  http//www.setac.org/eraag/era_index.htm(iffy)
  http//www.setac.org/eraag/era_edu.htm
• Society for Risk Analysis http//www.sra.org/

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Scope of ESM220 ERA

• In Scope - assessment of risks involving
  non-human organisms, non-human populations and
  ecosystems
• Out-of-Scope - human health risk - risk
  management

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Basic Risk Framework Terminology

• Measure Likelihood
  Consequence
• Of Risk Exposure X
  Effect or Impact
• Dosage
  Response

Risk Assessment
How often an event may occur
Magnitude of impacts should event occur

Risk Analysis
Identify mitigation measures
Risk Mgt Decision-making,
Cost-Benefit Analysis,
Risk Communication
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Brief History of Risk

• Modern conception of risk rooted in the
  Hindu-Arabic numbering system ( 1200 AD) which
  replaced randomness, transformed measurement, and
  fostered abstract thinking
• Serious study began during the Renaissance
  (1600s) after the Reformation weakened the belief
  that the future was always determined by God and
  when exploration, trade and commerce exploded,
  creating strong needs for bookkeeping and
  forecasting
• In 1400s, Paccioli (a monk who brought the world
  double entry bookkeeping) posed the question of
  how to divide the stakes of an unfinished game of
  chance between two players when one of them is
  ahead
• Took 200 years to solve - 1654, Pascal
• Gave rise to probability theory, the mathematical
  heart of the concept of risk
• People could for the first time make decisions
  and forecast the future with the help of numbers
  
• However, cannot completely quantify the future
  because it is an unknown and subject to
  variability and uncertainty, but we have learned
  to use numbers to scrutinize what happened in the
  past to help us make decisions about the future
• To this day, how much reliance is on
  quantification determined by patterns of the past
  or on ones subjective beliefs to indicate what
  the future holds depends on the individual
  knowledge and beliefs of the decision maker
• Source Bernstein 1996