Climate Futures for Tasmania:

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Climate Futures for Tasmania Prospects, Impacts
and Information for Adaption Options Nathan
Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro
Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, CSIRO MAR
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Introduction

• The Players
• Key user questions
• Research Activities
• Downscaling and global signals
• Tasmanian context
• Research outcome and outputs
• Resources

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Key User QuestionsClimate Change

• Water policy and legislation
• Water management and infrastructure
• Power Generation
• Reservoirs, winds
• Power Distribution (heat waves)
• Emergency planning
• Bushfires, floods
• Protection of high value assets
• From tourism
• Impacts on power and water
• dependent industry
• Agriculture
• Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease
• Sea level surges
• (from wind changes)

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The Players
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Research Modules

• Research activities
• Fine scale climate projections
• Modelling water flows and reservoirs
• Key climate variables
• Planning, agriculture,
• utility sectors and environment
• Extreme events
• Changes in occurrence
• Consequence of change
• Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves
• Storms/winds

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Fine Scale Climate Projections

• What is downscaling
• CCAM Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model
• CSIRO MAR (John McGregor)
• Validation phase
• IPCC models are used
• Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios

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Climate models, and climate model credibility
Observations 1980-2000
Mean Model 1980-2000
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8C
(likely range is 1.1C to 2.9C), and for high
scenario (A1FI) is 4.0C (likely range is 2.4C
to 6.4C). Broadly consistent with span quoted
for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Tasmania

• Precipitation increases are very likely in high
  latitudes in 2090-2099
• Decreases are likely in most subtropical land
  regions in 2090-2099

Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9
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Example from South West Australia
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Drought is increasing most places
The most important spatial pattern (top) of the
monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for
1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts
for most of the trend in PDSI.
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Tasmania Water Catchment Models
AWBM
Assumption no change in land use
Assumption no change in land use
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Example Hydro Tasmania Inflow Prediction
Most important lake

• Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows
• Factors lt1.0 represents drying
• Factors gt1.0 represents wetter
• Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying
  predicted
• Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter
  Winters

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Key Outputs

• Outputs
• Assessments of climate conditions to 2100
• Reports on future projections
• Estimates of uncertainties, and mean projections
• Input to operational models (Hydro, DPIW, TIAR)
• Model outputs more generally.
• Communication
• Engagement from start, users and researchers
• Liason officer
• Governance model

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Resources

• 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer,
  project management team
• Engagement of skills and expertise from the
  consortia members, including Tasmanian State
  Departments and business enterprises
• 8 million over three years (cash inkind)
• Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)
• Potential Collaborations
• CERF funded projects
• Other initiatives (eg SEACI).

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Calibration
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Low Emissions
High Emissions

• Spatial patterns greater warming over land,
  greater warming at high latitudes
• Albedo changes in high latitudes, less snow and
  sea-ice.

Figure SPM-5,TS-28, 10.8, 10.28
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Scenarios for Extremes- frost, heat waves, growth
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National Action Plan (NAP) Region
14 surface water hydrological models were
developed.

• Models enable generation of flow data for
  scenarios
• Scenario 1 Natural flow
• Scenario 2 Current flow
• Scenario 3 Current flow with EWR provisions.

1. Calculation of indices for catchment flow
   characteristics.

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Hydrologic modelling

• Current models are simple rainfall-runoff water
  balance models (AWBM)
• Platform for incorporating landuse impacts
• Surface-groundwater interaction

Flow generation