Presentation by South Africa to AWG2 Initial views on

1
Presentation by South Africa to AWG2 Initial
views on how to determine further emission
limitation and reduction commitments

• AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON FURTHER COMMITMENTS FOR
  ANNEX I PARTIES UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
• In-session workshop at the second session
• 7 November 2006
• Nairobi, Kenya

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Scenarios for stabilisation

• Annex I Parties asked to provide information
  about scenarios for the stabilization of
  atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
  and on the implications of these scenarios.
• Recurring theme that annual emissions covered are
  a small share of global emissions
• Valid observation needs to be put into
  perspectivecomparing relative contributions in
  cumulative rather than annual emissions
• In historical terms and looking forward

3
Cumulative emissions matter

• The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is
  determined more by cumulative rather than by
  year-by-year emissions.
• IPCC
• Third Assessment Report (TS p. 61)

4
Annual Emission Data, 2002

• Annual CO2 emissions of developing and developed
  countries
• - developed countries emitted 14 058 Mt CO2 (59)
  
• - developing countries emitted 9 606 Mt CO2 (41)

Data source Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
(CAIT), WRI, Washington, DC, http//cait.wri.org
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Cumulative Emission Data, 1900-2000
Cumulative CO2 emissions - developed countries
emitted 741.3 Gt CO2 (77) - developing
countries emitted 220.6 Gt CO2 (23)
Data source CAIT
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Comparing annual emissions
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to cumulative starting 1950
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Article 3.9

• Has very clear focus
• Commitments for subsequent periods for Parties
  included in Annex I established by amendments to
  Annex B
• What are reasons why this is important?
• And what information might be needed?

9
Threats of serious or irreversible damages

• The reason why we are here
• If there were lack of ambition ? adverse impacts
  of climate change will affect all, but most
  particularly LDCs
• Millions of lives at risk in Africa
• Need more urgent action
• conclude the work of the AWG by 2008

10
Secure carbon markets

• Carbon markets essential for cost-effective
  climate action
• Point Carbon 2006 report estimated transactions
  
• CDM 397 Mt CO2eq
• EU ETS 362 Mt CO2eq
• JI 28 Mt CO2eq
• How has CDM already assisted Annex B Parties in
  achieving their goals for 1st commitment period
• No gap to 2nd commitment period

11
Funding for adaptation

• CDM share of proceeds flows to Adaptation Fund
• 2 of 1.9 billion of CERs transacted 38
  million
• More than contributions to the Special Climate
  Change Fund (as of April 2006)
• And yet still orders of magnitude smaller than
  what is required

12
How much do we need to know to take action?

• Precautionary approach should be applied to the
  AWG process
• Lack of full certainty on all issues not a reason
  for postponing urgent action
• Possible to draw on what we already know
• Gather other information within the time-frame
  set by decision 1/CMP.1
• Without raising other issues that are not
  necessary to come to a decision

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Updating Annex B

• SA welcomes tabling of specific numbers by some
  Annex B Parties and regional economic integration
  organizations
• Would like to learn more about the information
  used to determine quantified emission reductions
  for subsequent periods
• Encourage other Parties included in Annex I to do
  the same, even where there may be uncertainty,
  provide specific numbers

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Thank you