Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice Tigran Melkonyan Professor of Economics University of Nevada, Reno [e-mail] and Mark Pingle Professor of Economics University of Nevada, Reno [e-mail]

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Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious
ChoiceTigran MelkonyanProfessor of
EconomicsUniversity of Nevada,
Renotmelkonyan_at_cabnr.unr.eduandMark
PingleProfessor of EconomicsUniversity of
Nevada, Renopingle_at_unr.edu
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• Pascal, 1670, Pensees 194I know I must soon
  die, but what I know least is the very death I
  cannot escape.

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• Adam Smith, Theory of Moral Sentiments, 1759,
  Part I, paragraph I.I.13 The foresight of our
  own dissolution is so terrible to us . that it
  makes us miserable while we are alive . The
  dread of death is the great poison to
  happiness. it afflicts and mortifies the
  individual.

• Adam Smith, Theory of Moral Sentiments, 1759,
  Part I, paragraph I.II.11 Fear is a passion
  derived altogether from the imagination, which
  represents, with an uncertainty and fluctuation
  that increases our anxiety, not what we really
  feel, but what we may hereafter possibly suffer.

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Pascals Wager
Pascal, 1670, Pensees 233 God is or He is
not. But to which side will we incline? What
will you wager? You must wager. It is not
optional Let us weigh the gain and the loss in
wagering that God is. If you win, you win
everything, if you lose you lose nothing. Do not
hesitate then wager that he does exist.
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Pascals wager Presents faith as a choice made
under uncertainty

• Jeff Jorden, Chapter 1, Gambling on God Essays
  on Pascals Wager Pascals wager brought about
  the advent of decision theory.
• Iannaccone, L.R., Journal of Economic Literature,
  1998 For the most part, however, the problem of
  religious uncertainty has received little
  attention and scarcely any formal analysis.
• Theory Question What theoretical conclusions
  about the faith decision can we derive from
  decision theory?
• Policy Question What should evangelists do to
  win converts?

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Dilemma Version of Pascals Wager
God Exists God Does Not Exist
Believe in God Heaven 8 Earthly Sacrifice - C
Not Believe in God Hell - 8 Earthly Pleasure B

• The Dilemma Better to believe in God if God
  exists, and better to not believe in God if God
  does not exist. God either exists or does not
  exist. What to choose?

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A Model of Religious Choice

• Definition of Religion A set of beliefs about
  the afterlife, and an associated set of
  prescriptions for how to live life.
• Does not presume belief in a supernatural being
  (God or gods)
• Atheism As much a religion as any theism
• Definition of (Religious) Faith The act of
  adopting a religion
• Involves courage, not matter what choice is made,
  because one face uncertainty and possible regret
• It is courageous to be an Atheist and courageous
  to be a Theist.
• Fundamental Assumptions
• Religions are mutually exclusive If one is
  true, the others are not.
• For each religion, finite expected payoffs can be
  assigned to truth states.

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Two Extremes and a Middle Ground

• Total Ambiguity Cannot use the concept of
  probability at all when considering alternative
  religions (i.e., )
• No Ambiguity Can formulate a unique probability
  distribution over the alternative religious
  truth states (e.g. )
• Middle Ground (General Model) Can identify a
  probability range for each religious truth state
  (e.g. )

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Alpha Maxi-min Expected Utility Preferences

• Linear combination of maximum expected utility
  and minimum expected utility, weighted by the
  degree of pessimism.
• DM is total pessimist
• DM is total optimist
• DM is the general Hurwicz
  decision maker

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Parameterizing Ambiguity

• Utility obtained from religious alternative x is
  a linear combination of that obtained from the no
  ambiguity case, where an anchor probability
  distribution is applied and the total ambiguity
  case, where no probability distribution is
  applied

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Results

• Theorem 2 The qualitative impact of a change in
  the degree of ambiguity depends upon the degree
  of pessimism.
• When DM is sufficiently pessimistic, the utility
  of any action decreases as ambiguity increases.
• Conversely, when DM is sufficiently optimistic,
  the utility of any action increases as the degree
  of ambiguity increases.
• Intuition Increasing ambiguity admits
  additional probability distributions, some of
  which will increase max expected value and some
  of which will decrease min expected value.

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Results

• Theorem 3 DM will choose the anchor choice
  when beliefs are sufficiently unambiguous, while
  the Hurwicz choice will be chosen when beliefs
  are sufficiently ambiguous.
• Decreasing ambiguity makes the anchor probability
  distribution more relevant, and makes the degree
  of pessimism less relevant
• Increasing ambiguity makes the gap between the
  maximum outcome and minimum outcome more
  relevant, and makes the anchor probability
  distribution less relevant
• When the degree of ambiguity is high,
• Optimism points DM toward the max max choice
• Pessimism points DM toward the max min choice.

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Results

• Irrelevance and Dominance Under Complete
  Ambiguity
• Complete ambiguity removes impact of
  probabilities and places emphasis on payoffs
• A religious alternative is irrelevant, under
  complete ambiguity, if its max-max and max-min
  are each less than some other alternative.
• A religion is dominant under complete ambiguity,
  if its max-max and max-min are each greater than
  those for all other religious alternatives.
• Evangelism Implications
• Emphasize high payoff (e.g., heaven) for adoption
• Emphasize high penalty (e.g., hell) for
  non-adoption
• Ambiguity can help win converts by de-emphasizing
  probabilities

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Results
Theorem 4 Optimists are more likely than
pessimists to find appeal in a choice with a
large difference between the largest possible
payoff and the lowest. Conversely, pessimists
will tend to find more appeal in a choice where
this difference is small.
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Practical Application
Facts (2008) Christianity and Islam are the two
largest religions in the world, with 2.1 billion
and 1.5 billion followers, respectively. By
comparison, the number of Atheists is small,
included among the 1.1 billion classified in the
catch all category atheist/anti-theistic/anti-reli
gious/secular/agnostic. Question Why is
Atheism unpopular relative to Christianity and
Islam? Answer Ambiguity (combined with relative
expected payoffs). Atheism will not likely be
either the max-max (optimistic) or max-min
(pessimistic) because it does not offer heaven
for adoption or hell for non-adoption Ancillary
Prediction Atheists will be more pessimistic,
as a group, than theists, (because pessimists are
disproportionately attracted to religions with a
smaller gap between the best and worst possible
outcome.) (There may be hell expected for
non-adoption, but no heaven expected for
adoption.)
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Unanswered Questions
Do people create God? Or, does God create
people? Do people act in faith by choosing a
religion? Or, does God give people the faith
that leads them to their religion? Our theory
does not answer these questions. It could be that
religions have been developed by humans, and have
evolved toward a form that is consistent with how
people, with varying degrees of pessimism, make
choices under varying degrees of ambiguity? It
could be that people have been developed by a God
who values faith, so faith can be expressed as
people make religious choices while facing the
ambiguity associated with death.
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