TRAVIS ARCHIBALD, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

1
COMOX VALLEY HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

• TRAVIS ARCHIBALD, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

JANUARY 15, 2009
2
Presentation Outline

• Housing Demand
• Resale Market
• New Home Construction
• Rental Market
• Local Trends

3
Local Housing Demand
4
Slower Economic Growth
Real GDP Growth B.C. vs. Canada
Source Statistics Canada, 2008 is a CMHC
estimate.
5
BCs Tight Labour Market
Annual increase in employment, thousands of jobs
Unemployment rate, per cent
3.2
3.3
3.1
2.1
Ontario
BC
Alberta
Source Statistics Canada
6
More Households ? More Housing Demand
Number of Households - Comox Valley
Source BC Stats P.E.O.P.L.E. 33
7
Strong Migration to the Province
Net Migration to B.C. International vs.
Interprovincial
Source Statistics Canada
8
Mortgage Rates Remain Low
Posted 1-Year and 5-Year Mortgage Rates
Source Bank of Canada
9
So Why Are There So Few Buyers?

• Economic Uncertainty
• High Prices

10
Resale Market
11
Comox Valley Resale Market Moderating
Comox Valley MLS sales
Source Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB)
12
Greater Victoria Resale Market Moderating
Greater Victoria MLS sales
Source Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) House
refers to single-family detached (excludes
waterfront and acreage).
13
Other Urban Vancouver Island Centres - 2008
VIREB MLS sales
Source Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB)
14
Comox Valley - Diverging Conditions
Larger Gap Between Listings and Sales
Units
New Listings
Number of Resales
Source Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VREB)
seasonally adjusted by CMHC
15
Increased Selection of Homes in Comox Valley
MLS Active Listings of Months Supply
Source Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
(VREB), seasonally adjusted by CMHC Supply
(Active Listings) / (Avg. Monthly Sales over past
3 months)
16
Island Markets Now in Buyers Territory
MLS Sales to Active Listings Ratio December
2007 vs 2008
Source VREB and VIREB, Seasonally Adjusted by
CMHC.
17
Strong Price Gains Since Millennium
Vancouver Island MLS prices
Source CREA and Vancouver Island Real Estate
Board (VIREB)
18
Strong Resale Price Gains Since Millennium
Comox Valley MLS prices
Source Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB)
19
Resale Market Summary

• Demand for existing homes easing across all
  Island markets
• More supply on the market
• Moving into buyers market conditions
• Average resale price dipped in Q4

20
New Construction Market
21
Comox Valley New Construction Easing
Courtenay-Comox CA New Home Starts
Source CMHC
22
Victoria New Construction to Ease in 2009
Victoria CMA New Home Starts
Source CMHC
23
Urban Vancouver Island New Construction
Urban Vancouver Island New Home Starts
Source CMHC
24
Over 4,500 Units Under Construction
Urban Vancouver Island Units Under Construction
Source CMHC
25
New Construction Summary

• Coming off peak construction period
• Returning to 10-15 year average level of housing
  starts for the major Island markets
• Less spill-over from resale market
• A large number of units currently under
  construction

26
Rental Market
27
Island Vacancy Rates Remain Low
Average Vacancy Rates Purpose-Build Rental
Structures
Source CMHC Rental Survey, CMHC Calculation
all apartments
28
Modest Increases in Rent Observed
Average Rents All Purpose-Built Rental Units
Source CMHC Rental Survey, CMHC Calculation
all apartments
29
Few New Rental Starts
Rental Starts
Source CMHC Rental Survey, CMHC Calculation
30
Rental Market Summary

• Continued strong demand for rental housing
• Limited supply of purpose-built rental units
• Lack of new rental structures
• Increased importance of secondary rental market

31
Local Trends
32
Vancouver Island Seniors Population Growing
Per cent of Population Over 65 Years Old
Source BC Stats, P.E.O.P.L.E. 33
33
Comox Valley AirportIncreased Access
34
Short-Term Outlook
2009
35
THANK YOU!
For More Information Contact

• Travis Archibald
• E-mail tarchiba_at_cmhc.ca
• Telephone [phone]
• Mobile [phone]