Forecaster tools for AWIPS II

1
Forecaster tools for AWIPS II

• Paul Schultz
• NOAA/ESRL
• 14 May 2008

2
Probabilistic prediction in AWIPS II
Probabilistic guidance from NCEP
Climo
Verification
Gridded MOS
Analog reforecast
Bias- corrected downscaled SREF, NAEFS
Probability generator / calibrator
GFE,including PDF editor etc
Local database
SREF
NAEFS
ECMWF?
NDFD
3
Tools and displays for WFOs

• Spaghetti
• Pick your own contour(s)
• Color code by source
• Time series (a/k/a plume)
• Overlay summary stats
• Postage stamps
• Penn State e-wall
• Rearrange
• Interactive weighting (blender)
• Verification and climatology
• By event type
• Use for weight selection
• Real-time feedback

• Local models
• Process models
• Statistical models
• Histograms
• Check for dispersion, signs of problems
• PDF editor
• Drag anchors (10, median, 90)
• Change basis function
• GFE
• Propagate changes to adjacent points in space and
  time

4
Extra points

• ASAP verification to calibrate forecaster guts
• Ability to re-run SREF for cases chosen by WFO
• Same software across all AWIPS II
• National Centers, WFOs
• Examples statistics software, reliability
  diagrams
• Access to actual grids or just graphical
  representations?