Choice in the use of rural resources

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Choice in the use of rural resources

• Agricultural policy in developed economies will
  be completely transformed

Jim Riddell
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Explaining human behavior

• Today economics
• Philosophy
• Law
• Sociology/Anthropology
• Political science and constitutions
• Psychology

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Next?

• Genetics and biology
• Human nature will likely be seen from quite a
  different angle from that of the philosophers
• Social sciences will have a new responsibility
  for how we make choices
• Deciding the use of rural resources will be
  source of conflict in the 21st century

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The two lessons from ecology1. Earth resources
are finite2. Everything is linked to everything
else

• Land
• Water
• Minerals
• Air quality
• Atmospheric change
• Bio diversity
• And everything else

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Change in the use of rural resources is
inevitable The dominant social processes are

• Demography
• Globalization of the worlds food commodity
  markets
• Deteriorating economic returns to family farm
  agriculture
• Solutions must be compatible with democratic
  principles

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DemographyUrbanization

• There more people living in cities today than the
  entire worlds population when Taiwan had its
  land reform
• Rural areas are no longer the engine of economic
  growth for a nation it is now the city

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Age of farmers as of all farmers
Source Eurostat Yearbook 98/99. A statistical
eye on Europe 1987 - 1997. Brussels, Luxembourg,
1999. (European Communities), p. 345
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Farm size
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Deteriorating economic returns to family farm
agriculture

• Off farm income essential
• Non-competitive for capital attraction
• Financial
• Physical
• Human
• Social/cultural
• Large-scale farming is also not competitive
  without subsidies, protection and other
  distortions.
• Vertical integration
• Impossible in any case in most Developed
  economies from a social, political and cultural
  point of view

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Economic non-viability In the worlds wealthy
countries, agriculture has been a steadily
declining sector in the economy for the past
century. As stated above, rural communities of
very small farmers must be provided with the
means to keep local culture both alive and
dynamic. This has required a number of
interventions that transfer capital from the
urban and industrial centers to the rural sector.
Farm-gate prices have been subsidized and
farmers protected from cheaper food imports by
almost every rich country outside the Cairns
group. The European Union devotes over 50 of
its budget to keep 5 of its economy from going
bankrupt. Japan with less than 2.5 million
hectares of agricultural land, spends over 26
billion each year so that 3.8 of its labor force
can stay in business. Even with farms that would
seem immense in Europe, Africa or Asia, the US
has to spend somewhere between 19 and 40
billion a year to ensure that around 2 of the
population has some chance to stay on the
farm2.
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Off-farm income in Japan
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US Farm Income
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Sourcehttp//www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/farmincome
/data/Hh_t5.htm
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Global food trade
versus
Global food production
Picture source Freelancer.com
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Solutions must be compatible with democratic
principles

• For the first time there is near global
  acceptance of what constitutes good governance.
• Democracy and development
• Policy implications
• Not because it is good but because it is
  necessary
• Rural populations have been voting with their
  feet

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Governments have tried many approachessome
examples

• Norway guaranteed income for degree holding farm
  families
• Sweden larger farms
• Denmark, Finland and Holland Continuous local
  planning
• Germany Village reorganization Wismar cluster
• England Producers Associations Orkney Marketing
  Scheme
• France SAFER and Chambres dagriculture

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Age of farmers as of all farmers
Source Eurostat Yearbook 98/99. A statistical
eye on Europe 1987 - 1997. Brussels, Luxembourg,
1999. (European Communities), p. 345
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Critical elements

• Access to Information and research
• Public environment that encourages
  entrepreneurial activities
• Existence of a critical mass of SMEs
• Networks for the exchange of experience and
  know-how
• Infrastructure and geographical isolation, real
  or perceived.

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New approaches There might be a way forward

• Inclusive economies
• The more users, the more valuable
• Capital savings administration
• Rural resource users
• Value adding activities
• Density of management

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Inclusive economic models

• Inclusive Model
• Internet more users the more valuable
• Information
• Maps (e.g. interactive)
• Goods
• Services
• Cell phone
• Credit cards
• Smart cards

• Exclusive model
• Value from exclusive ownership
• Information
• Maps (limited no.)
• Stores
• Companies
• Owner of the lines
• Checks, drafts, etc
• Independent operators

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Capital savings administration

• The more users the better the administration
• Sales receipts and tax collection
• Land registry (on line)
• Open records
• Property owner can confirm

• The more users the more staff, etc. needed
• Fiscal police. An army of auditors
• Restricted access to maps, plans and records.
• Expensive to verify

Uniform-Invoice
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Example Conceptual Mapping
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Conceptual map link to data information
Source NASA
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The long tail niche instead of hits
From Chris Anderson The Long Tail, Wired Magazine
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Topoclimate application in southern New Zealand

• Measurements of accumulated heat (GDD),
• Calculation of chilling periods,
• Calculation of growing season lengths and
  patterns,
• Identifying critical points for plant growth and
  production,
• Growing-Degree-Days
• Land use options
• Sustainability
• Soil vulnerability
• Specific analyses and indices

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Conclusions

• Farms will stay small
• Rural economy will become increasingly
  diversified and tied to urban institutions
• New uses of rural space
• Agriculture will become ever more specialized
• Organic foods, Specialized fruits and vegetables,
  etc.
• Non-food Bio-energy, Cellulose products, etc.
• Competition for rural resources will become
  intense and require major governmental policy
  intervention and institution building.
• Water registries, etc.
• Administrative capital savings
• Inclusive economic models and marketing in the
  long tail