Quadrupling is twice as good as doubling

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Quadrupling is twice as good as doubling Ernst
von Weizsäcker Bren School Bren School Corporate
Partners Summit May 11th 2007
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Environmental Policy in the 19th Century
Nature Conservation
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Environmental Policy After Silent Spring
Pollution Control
Nature Conservation
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Stabilizing climate requires halving GHG
emissions, but a world of 7 billion people
rather wants a doubling!
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Some say wind energy is the answer
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But even in Germany its still marginal
.
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• Many believe biofuels will be the answer.
• But biofuels can be
• an environmental nightmare
• economically problematic,
• socially disruptive

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• Environmental nightmare (palmoil plantation,
  West Africa)

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Economically problematic Prices for reducing one
ton of CO2 using biofuels (in Euros 500
630) (The present market price for a one ton
permit of CO2 emissions is below 5 and may go up
to 15 within a year)
high estimates
low
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Socially disruptive Mexican corn prices for
tortillas doubled due to fuel demand
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Renewable sources of energy are helpful and
desirable. But they do not solve the problem of
global warming, for a very long time to
come! What then?
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So let us look for a more radical solution
Decoupling wealth from energy consumption!
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Decoupling wealth from resource consumption
means increasing resource productivity
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Environmental policy after climate and resource
problems became prominent
Resource Productivity
Pollution Control
Nature Conservation
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Quadrupling resource productivity would allow us
doubling wealth while halving resource use!
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Imagine a bucket of water weighing twenty
pounds.How many kilowatt-hours would you need
to lift that bucket from sea level up to the top
of Mount McKinley?
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1 kwh





The answer is One fifth of a kilowatt-hour! (-
assuming that one watt-second equals one
Newton-meter)
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We can increase efficiency for energy, water and
materials at least fourfold
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Amory Lovins Hypercar, re-dubbed Revolution,
is four or seven times more fuel efficient than
todays cars
Hypercar 120-150 mpg
Todays cars 20-30 mpg
Energy efficiency
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House in the Alps
Rocky Mountain Institute
Heating efficiency
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Energy efficiency in office buildings
The Donald Bren School, a Platinum LEED building
Energy water efficiency
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From incandescent light bulbs to solid state
lighting
Energy efficiency
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Matsuhita refrigerators steadily increasing
efficiency
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Typically, however, a factor of four is
unattainable if we look at efficiency of simple
processes.Bigger gains come in when comparing
complex systems. Here, we talk about productivity
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Changing technological paradigms

• Old
• Increasing labour productivity

• New
• Increasing resource productivity

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Productivity is much richer than efficiency
Productivity is about networks and cascades
Efficiency is inside a box (e.g. mpg)
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Overcoming crazy logistics in strawberry yoghurt
production
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Integrated energy, water and transport
optimization
Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006
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Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006
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Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006
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Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006
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Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006
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What has been the main driving force for the
increase more than twentyfold of labor
productivity? Economists would say it was labor
cost. What has been the main driving force for
the inrease more than twentyfold of
wages? Economists would say labor productivity
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Labor poductivity rose in parallel with labor
costs
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Labor poductivity went in parallel with labor
costs
This suggests a strategy of actively elevating
energy prices in parallel with energy
productivity increases
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Long term price elasticity of gasoline
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In Japan, the new catchword is the Cyclical
Economy
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The sixth wave of technological innovation
(after Charlie Hargroves, Brisbane, Australia)