PEAK OIL

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• PEAK OIL
• (and the unfolding energy crisis)
• What is Peak Oil?
• What are the consequences?
• What can we do about it?

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Fuel Prices - Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow?
1955
2005
3
Oil originates from the chemical decomposition of
microorganisms that got buried under geologic
formations in the sea millions of years ago.
In some cases the sea retreated, which explains
why oil is also found on land.
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-Oil was a gift from nature. -It took millions
of years to produce -When its gone, its gone
forever
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Before the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania
in 1859, Nature had made about two trillion
barrels of recoverable oil and scattered it
unevenly around the world. By 2006 weve used up
about 0.96 trillion. In other words were near
the half-way point.
Hubbert's Peak The Impending World Oil
Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes
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An oil well isnt like a cars fuel tank.

• With a car you can drive at full speed until the
  moment you run out of fuel.
• Thats because your tank is a hollow cavity. The
  fuel fills the bottom of the tank and theres
  nothing preventing it from being pumped out.

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But an oil well isnt a hollow cavity.

• Its a large deposit of stones or sandstone
  sandwiched between two layers of impervious rock.
  The hollow spaces between the stones or sand are
  filled with thick and viscous oil.
• A pipe is lowered into the mixture of oil and
  stones or sand and the oil is pumped up.

It takes time for oil to ooze from zones of high
pressure to the zone of low pressure near the
pipe.
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In order to extract the oil from an oil field, a
large number of wells are drilled.
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An oil field yields its contents over the years,
something like this.
Then the flow slows down gradually.
An oil field empties rapidly at the start and
yields lots of oil.
Towards the end the flow eases to a trickle.
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When you plot the production of an aggregate of
oil fields, it approximates a bell curve
Top of the curve
Mid point
2nd half
1st half
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The top of the bell curve is what petroleum
experts refer to as the oil peak or peak oil.
Remember that weve used up almost half of the
worlds oil. When we reach the half-way point on
a bell curve, we embark upon the decline.
and from then on, oil production will decline
year after year
http//www.oilcrisis.com/
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The Hubbert Peak
In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,
predicted that the oil extraction for the US
lower 48 states would peak in 1970
http//www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/
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• Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies
  have already peaked.
• The US peaked in 1970.
• 53 of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.

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Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years
later production peaked
The US lower 48 states
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of
Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
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If the world follows the US pattern
the world would peak soon
Adapted from Richard C. Duncan and Walter
Youngquist
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There Are No More Giant Oil Fields Being
Discovered

• In spite of advanced exploration technology we
  are finding smaller and smaller oil fields

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for each barrel of oil that is being discovered
Were consuming 4 barrels
The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
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Energy Return On Energy Invested
(EROEI)
It refers to the ratio of
The amount of energy spent on getting the fuel
exploration, drilling, pumping, transportation
and refining
The amount of energy in the fuel Either
gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc.
AND
The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
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Energy Return On Energy Invested
is diminishing as we resort to going after the
hard-to-get oil

• Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1
• In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1
• Now (2005) its about 10 to 1
• The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1

The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
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Exploration doesnt pay anymore
Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing
new sources of oil has risen about 15 annually.
In 2003 oil companies spent 8 billion on
exploration and discovered 4 billion in new
reserves.
Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y.
Times, 25 Mar 2005 John S. Herold consulting
firm
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Theres no more spare capacity in the world supply
Spare capacity how much extra oil can be
produced within 30 days notice and maintained for
90 days
Adapted from The Oil Age is Over, Matt Savinar
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Spurious OPEC Reserve Revisions
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Les Magoon, an oil geologist and scientist
emeritus with the U.S. Geological Survey

My feeling is this is the beginning of the oil
peak and the next administration, whoever it may
be, is going to have to deal with this. We're not
going to run out of oil, it's just that the
demand on a daily basis will far exceed the
ability of the world to produce oil so the price
is going to go up,"
JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October
28, 2004
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Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, 1999
Chairman, American Petroleum Institute

Weve embarked on the beginning of the last days
of the age of oil.
JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October
28, 2004
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British Petroleum Statistical Review of World
Energy
18 major oil-producing countries are now past
their peak production.
Beyond Petroleum
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US Vice-President Dick Cheney, when he was
Chairman of Halliburton, 1999
By some estimates there will be an average of
two per cent annual growth in global oil demand
over the years ahead, along with conservatively a
three per cent natural decline in production from
existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will
need on the order of an additional fifty million
barrels a day.
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Saudi saying
My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son
flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a
camel.
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• PEAK OIL
• Part 2
• What are the consequences?

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Energy Slaves
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Population
?
First Oil Well
OIL (1857)
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The life support pie is shrinking
The foundation of all agriculture, the soil, is
diminishing in all parts of the world
Forests are disappearing
Aquifers are being pumped dry
Fisheries are being decimated
Biodiversity is being extinguished
Rivers are drying up
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Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

• Farming is an annual artificial catastrophe, and
  it requires the equivalent of three or four tons
  of TNT per acre for a modern American farm.
  Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000
  Nagasaki bombs every year. 1

1 Richard Manning The Oil We Eat, Harpers,
2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing
of the worlds major grain crops - corn, rice
and wheat.
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Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

• On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of
  fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food.
• For pork, its 68 calories for 1 calorie on your
  plate.
• For beef, its 35 calories for 1 calorie on your
  plate. 1

1 Richard Manning The Oil We Eat, Harpers,
2005.
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Fertilizer Association of Ireland
World population today stands at 5.8 billion and
is expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020.
Cereals are the world's most important stable
nutrient source and to meet future demand cereal
production will need to double by the year 2020.
Production of other foodstuffs will also have to
increase significantly.Fertilizer, both organic
and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if
the food production necessary to support the
increased population is to be provided.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
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(No Transcript)
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This graph shows that GDP increases when oil
production (energy) increases.In other words,
economic growth requires growth of energy supply.
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We will soon reach the point where we cant pump
out enough to keep up with demand.
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• Oil is so versatile

The petrochemical industry can refine oil into
many different fuels and products.
Gas Naphtha Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Lubricants
http//science.howstuffworks.com
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• including plastics, textiles, pharmaceuticals
  etc..

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• Tourism only exists because cheap oil is available

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Resource Wars for Oil
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I cannot think of a time when we have had a
region emerge as suddenly to become as
strategically significant as the Caspian." But
the oil and gas there is worthless until it is
moved. The only route which makes both political
and economic sense is through Afghanistan
Dick Cheney as CEO Halliburton in 1998
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December 2002, The BBC
By Ian McWilliam BBC correspondent in Kabul An
agreement has been signed in the Turkmen capital,
Ashgabat, paving the way for construction of a
gas pipeline from the Central Asian republic
through Afghanistan to Pakistan. The building of
the trans-Afghanistan pipeline has been under
discussion for some years but plans have been
held up by Afghanistan's unstable political
situation.

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IRAN, NIGERIA, VENEZUELA?????
Saudi envoy urges no U.S. attack on Iran By David
R. SandsThe Washington Times Published May 31,
2006 WASHINGTON -- A military strike against
Iran's suspected nuclear sites would have
"catastrophic" effects on other Persian Gulf
states and on U.S. interests in the region and
beyond, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington
warned yesterday.
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U.S. ships in Nigeria to protect oil ABUJA,
Nigeria, June 1 (UPI) -- The U.S. presence in the
Gulf of Guinea is said to be a result of the U.S.
Navy protecting Nigerian oil plants from
terrorists, Nigeria's The Guardian reported. A
report published in the Nigerian newspaper
Wednesday said that the U.S. Navy was patrolling
the Gulf of Guinea, home to Nigeria's biggest oil
field, Bonga Project, to prevent the field from
being targeted "by terrorists and other maritime
criminals."
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Forbes Venezuela Adds Troops to Colombian Border
By FABIOLA SANCHEZ , 06.02.2006, 1132 PM
Venezuela is beefing up its troop strength along
the Colombian border, negotiating with Russia to
set up arms factories, and preparing for a
possible invasion, the army commander said
Friday. "We cannot set aside the possibility of
a military invasion on our country," because its
vast oil deposits make it a target, he said.
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THE ENVIRONMENT
Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003
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World Temperature History
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(No Transcript)
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Atmospheric CO2
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• PEAK OIL
• Part 3
• What can we do about it?

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• Many solutions in sight
• A Depletion Protocol to cut imports to match
  depletion rate
• New energy saving policies
• achievable with little pain
• Climate change fears may evaporate
• Many technological solutions
• not for finding more oil, but for using less

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Priorities

• Tackle population growth.
• Impose very high levels of fuel efficiency for
  cars and energy efficiency for houses
• Spend less money on roads and more on renewable
  energy programmes and DECENT public transport
  systems
• Grants for domestic electricity generation
• A reasoned debate on the use of nuclear power
• Greater use of arable land for growing crops such
  as rapeseed, sugar for ethanol, willow for wood
  pellets etc.
• Buying locally produced goods where possible

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Which Future?
Mad Max
Star Trek
Greenpeace
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Thank You