Defras Horizon Scanning

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Defras Horizon Scanning Futures Programme

• Emily Holmes Programme Co-ordinator
• Rohit Talwar - Programme Manager
• Horizon Scanning
• Science Strategy Team
• emily.holmes_at_defra.gsi.gov.uk
• rohit.talwar_at_defra.gsi.gov.uk
• www.escience.defra.gov.uk/horizonscanning
• Tel [phone]

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Contents

• Programme Overview
• Activities and Outputs
• Learning
• Future Direction
• Conclusions

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Defras HS Definition Goals

• DEFINITION
• The systematic examination of potential threats,
  opportunities and likely future developments
  which are at the margins of current thinking and
  planning.
• GOALS New Risks, New Opportunities, New Ideas
• To improve Defras resilience and capability to
  anticipate and prepare for new risks and
  opportunities
• Challenge and extend Defras thinking on future
  science and environmental challenges
• Engage staff from across Defra and encourage high
  quality external contributions

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Programme Fundamentals

• Encompass all scientific disciplines
• Reports to Howard Dalton Chief Scientific
  Advisor
• Located in the Science Directorates Science
  Strategy Team
• 2M annual budget
• 5 current research themes
• Run by the Horizon Scanning Unit
• Programme manager
• Programme co-ordinator
• Part time research assistant
• Internal and external project managers
• Projects specified in consultation with science
  and policy staff across Defra
• Services delivered by external contractors
• Independent Advisory Panel

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HS Programme Roadmap
2004/05 Deliver Outputs / Prove the Value
2005/06 HS Embedded Across Defra
2003/04 Establish the Mechanisms / Initiate
Research
2002-03 Create the Programme Strategy
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HS Programme Components
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Contents

• Programme Overview
• Activities and Outputs
• Learning
• Future Direction
• Conclusions

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The Baseline Scan
Develop a Long List of 100 Global Futures
Studies (e.g. MoD Strategic Trends 2030,
Countryside 2020, etc)
Select a Short List of 25 Key Studies (Based on
Credibility / Quality / Relevance)
Support Directorates, Environmental Research
Funders Forum (ERFF) Members and Possibly OGDs
in Interpretation, Evaluation Application
Provide a Web-Based Interface to Support Future
Use / Continuous Update
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Emerging Findings

• Climate change
• Trust
• Risk
• Celebrity
• Governance
• Ambient intelligence
• Integration of technologies

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Research Activity - 1

• Future Landscapes
• Development of Models for Sustainable Rural
  Policy and Land Use (SURPLUS) Contract awarded
• Coping with Threats
• Scoping study to investigate the potential of
  alternative strategies for national biosecurity
  against introduced diseases, pests and alien
  species Contract awarded
• Meeting Peoples Future Needs
• Rural Futures Scenario Creation and Back Casting
  
• - Contract awarded
• Re-thinking the Food Economy
• Future of the Food Chain joint funding from DoH
  invitation to tender issued

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Research Activity - 2

• Environmental Constraints contracts awarded
  for
• Development of a Virtual Fisheries Model (VFM) to
  be used to test future fisheries management and
  industry scenarios
• Greenhouse Gas Stabilisation
• Alternative Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems
• Impact of Future Energy Policy on Biodiversity
• The Future of Healthy Ecosystems
• Integrated Knowledge Management of Environmental
  Datasets for Future Environmental Analysis
• Future Environmental Effects of Non-Synthetic
  Chemical Use

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Communications and Networking

• Arranging meetings with all Directorates to
  explore HS needs
• Launch of Bi-weekly Horizon Scanning Newsletter
• Contribution to regular Environmental Scans as
  part of Balanced Scorecard reporting
• Lunchtime updates on research projects started
  December 18th
• Seminar programme with external speakers
• Networking with OGDs programme is well
  supported by OST

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Immediate Priorities

• Work with individual Directorates to introduce
  Baseline Scan, identify HS research priorities
  and determine how best to support them
• Establish Internal HS Forum to guide the
  programme
• Commission rapid insights studies
• Broaden communications and networking to raise
  awareness and engage the organisation
• Initiate HS capacity building and training

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How can we Help?

• Continuous scanning
• Long term studies 612 months duration
• Rapid insight studies - reports of 20-30 pages in
  length, completed in 6-12 week turnaround
• HS mini briefings rapid overviews of key topics
  - 2- 4 page briefings completed within 5-10 days
• Point research 2-4 hour turnaround for ad hoc
  enquiries
• Tailored services workshops, training, ad hoc
  advice and assistance
• Networking - Identification of external resources
  and contacts

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Questions for Directorates

• How does our work fit with that of your
  Directorate / Function?
• How would you use the Baseline Scan how can we
  help you in applying it?
• What forward looking / HS activity has your
  Directorate / Function completed in the last 2
  years or is currently in progress / planned /
  under consideration?
• How do we provide visibility and encourage
  sharing of the HS work going on across Defra?
• How best can we support your Directorate /
  Function in factoring longer term thinking into
  strategy, policy and operations?
• Are there specific HS related training or support
  needs we can help you address?

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Contents

• Programme Overview
• Activities and Outputs
• Learning
• Future Direction
• Conclusions

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Successes

• Securing top level buy-in and budget early on
• SAC / Advisory Group support
• Creating a real programme
• Built a passive external network
• Winning internal credibility
• Commissioned 15 studies in 6 months
• Fresh Thinking - Employed a range of partners
• Support from Management Board and Directors

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2020 Hindsight

• Long period of definition and strategising
• Over-intellectualised decisions
• Killed too many trees
• Bored the internal audience
• Didnt initiate some early research
• Too risk averse

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Living with Complexity

• Fail 65 of the time v Take no risks
• Challenge the orthodoxy v Gain buy-in
• Deliver robust evidence v Do it in a page
• Introduce new ideas v Manage expectations
• Highlight new challenges v Cant cope as it is

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Risks

• Change of heart at the top
• Budget reduction
• Lack of buy-in
• So what response to outputs
• Loss of momentum
• Failure of nerve / imagination
• Over-commit and under-resource
• Contractors dont deliver

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Contents

• Programme Overview
• Activities and Outputs
• Learning
• Future Direction
• Conclusions

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Management Board Drivers

• Managing complexity
• Joined up thinking
• Effects based planning / operations e.g. 2020
  home
• Agility and Innovation
• Future proofing policy options
• Creating an information / knowledge hub
• Facilitate learning network
• Inform risk management
• Support opportunity identification / risk taking
• Share it with ministers

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Evolving the Model
Trends and Driving Forces e.g. Environmental
Footprints Environmental Technologies Population
Migration
Futures Methods e.g. New Tools and
Processes Complexity Management Futures Research
Techniques
Insight
Approach
IMPACT
Application
Implications
Policy Challenges e.g. Relevance to Strategic
Themes Impact of CAP Reform Managing Medium to
Long Term Risk Impact of Rapid Climate Change
Engagement e.g. Presentation Media Policy
Integration Learning Approaches
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Defras 5 Strategic Themes

• Climate Change and Energy
• Natural Resource Protection
• Sustainable Consumption and Production
• Sustainable Rural Communities
• A Sustainable Food and Farming Sector

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Contents

• Programme Overview
• Activities and Outputs
• Learning
• Future Direction
• Conclusions

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Conclusions

• Real learning comes from action
• Go for early activity to create tangible outputs
• Help the organisation develop an appetite for HS
• Leanness encourages creativity
• Respect the organisations time
• Be clear on the difference between risks and
  dislikes
• Curiosity and passion for futures work helps
• The network is critical
• Maintain momentum