Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies

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Energy Sources The Emerging Technologies

• New Renewable Energy Technologies in Japan

November 11, 2004
Hideo Shindo
Chief Representative of Washington DC Office New
Energy and Industrial Technology Development
Organization (NEDO)
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Principle of Japans Energy Policy 3Es
The Basic Plan on Energy endorsed by the Cabinet
in October 2003
? Four Fundamental Measures

• Promoting Energy Conservation Measures
• Ensuring a Stable Supply of Oil
• Development and introduction of Diverse Sources
  of Energy
• Basing the Energy Market on Market Principles

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Energy in Japan in Comparison to the World
Characteristics
Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy in Major
Countries (2000)
()
Fragile Energy Supply Structure - Scarce
domestic energy resources - Low ratio of
self-supply of energy compared to other major
countries - High dependency on oil from the
Middle East
Source IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
2002
Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and
Dependency on Oil in the World (2000-2001)
Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major
Countries (2000)
()
Source IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries
2002
Source BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas
Information (2002)
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METIs Major Energy-Related RD Targets
Challenges
Categories Major RD targets Challenges Budget (JFY04)
Nuclear Energy -Safety of Nuclear Systems 1. Safety Assessment 2. Nuclear Cycle 3. Light-Water Reactors -Disuse, MOX Reactors JPY 40.5 B
New Energy - 3 of Primary Energy Supply in 2010 - Promotion of FCs Hydrogen FCVs 50K(2010),5000K(2020) -?Cost, ?Performance of New Energy Eqpt. Systems 1. Fuel Cells Hydrogen -FC ?Reliability, ?Cost -Hydrogen ?Safety, ?Cost -Demonstration of FCVs 2. PV ?Cell Efficiency, ?Cost 3.Biomass -?Conversion Efficiency to Gas/Liquid Fuels, etc JPY 149.3 B
Energy Efficiency Conservation -?Production Process Efficiency, lt-57Bl Energy Efficiency in 2010gt 1.Commercial Residential 2.Transportation 3.Industry 4.Cross Sectors JPY 92.4 B
Gas Energy -15 of Primary Energy Supply in 2010 1.?Cost of GTL/DME Production 2.Development of Methane Hydrate JPY 17.4 B
Oil and Coal Energy -Clean Production Utilization 1.Coal Gasification FC Power Production 2.Desulfurization Tech. of Gasoline and Gas Oil JPY 53.2 B
 
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METIs Energy RD Expenditures (in FY2004/5)
(Unitmillion JPY)
FY 2004 FY 2005(req.)
New Energy RD Program 60,900 58,100
Energy Efficiency and Conservation RD Program 49,300 51,900
Fossil Fuel RD Program (Oil, Gas Coal) 37,000 39,300
Electric Power RD Program 6,300 5,500
Nuclear Power RD Program 12,500 13,500
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Japans New and Renewable Energy Indicators
Supply Side
New Energy
Renewable Energy
Source Agency for Natural Resources and Energy,
METI
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Cost Competitiveness of NRE
Power generation cost of new energy
(Unit JPY/kWh)
Source Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of
the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources (July 2001), and others
Power generation cost by power source
(Unit JPY/kWh)
Source Data of the 70th Nuclear Power
Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy
(December 1999)
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Creation of Initial Demand

Market independence

Creation of initial demand



Technical development

Diffusion Difficulty Level
Cannot be sold without support
? High cost ? Competition with existing
products ? Construction of a total energy
system ? A lack of social awareness
Synergistic effect of mass production and cost
reduction

This period is important.
???????
Period of market creation
Development of new products
Period of independence and expansion in the market
Period of market maturity
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R D(with a view to commercialization)
TrinityApproach
Contribution to realize Long-term Energy
Supply/Demand Outlook (2010)
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NEDOs Energy-Related Activities
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NEDO RD Expenditures (in FY2004)
(Unitmillion JPY)
FY 2004
Electronics / Information Technology 18,500
Biotechnology / Medical Technology 18,000
Nanotechnology / Materials 16,700
Manufacturing / Aerospace/Avionics 22,600
Environment / Energy Environment FC Hydrogen New/Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency Conservation 57,700 7,900 19,300 22,300 8,200
Competitive Grants / Subsidies for Private Companies 28,000
TOTAL NEDO RD Expenditure 162,900
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Issues and Measures for Implementation of New and
Renewable Energies
Categories Issues Measures
Cost Efficiency Higher cost compared to other competitive energies Cost reduction by technology development Mass production by creating early demand Financial support
Output Stability Unstable output depending on natural conditions with a possibility of degradation of electricity quality Output stabilization technology development for electricity grid Output stabilization technology development for electricity generation
Energy Efficiency Lower energy conversion efficiency and capacity factor compared to existing energy systems ?Improvements in conversion efficiency and capacity factor by technology development
 
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International Comparisons Installed PV
Capacity
(Unit MW)
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Source IEA / PVPS (As of the end of 2002)
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PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan
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PV RD Scenario for 2010
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
PV System Technology for Mass Deployment
Demonstrative Research on Clustered PV Systems
Mass Production
Cost Reduction
Development of Advanced Manufacturing Technology
Module manufacturing cost
lt 140JPY/W
Performance
Outcomes (2010) CO2 reduction 1.6Mt
at 4.82GW (accum.) \2 trillion market
in next 10 years at 4.82GW (accum.)
Domestic PV mass deployment, global
environment solution and contribution, etc.
Development of Advanced Solar Cells Modules
Module Manufacturing cost lt 100JPY/W
Seeds
Investigation for Innovative PV Technology
Cost approx. 50JPY/W
RD
Mass deployment
Innovation
Practical use
Mass production and promotion
Advanced solar cells
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2001
2005
2010
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Wind Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Introduction Volume MW
Number of Turbines
End of FY2003 684MW, 738Turbines (Preliminary)
Fiscal Year
Source NEDO research data
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Expanded Application of Wind Power Generation
Scenario
2002
2005
2010
Diffusion stage
Application stage
Wind conditions
Model of regional wind conditions
Map of wind conditions
Wind power generation field test
Wind turbines
For distant islands
Technology progress at private companies
Technology development, demonstration test
Stabilizing system
Generation side
Stabilizing wind power generation electricity
system
Electricity system measures ? demonstration test
System side
Maintenance of hardware infrastructure/applicat
ion support
Application support (review of supplementary
scheme)
Indicator application for 2010 3,000MW
Electricity system measures ? System enforcement
support measure

Measures for application and diffusion
Maintenance of infrastructure on software side
RPS Law (2003)
Examination of review-related systems and
restrictions aiming for an expanded market
Examination of international standardization
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Conditions for Biomass Energy in Japan
Potential Quantity of Waste Biomass Energy Source
26 Million kl (Forecast for FY2010)
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Used Source Amount 4.95 Million kl (FY2000
basis)
Unused Sources Incineration Disposal,
Reclamation Disposal, Ocean Dumping 21.05 Million
kl
Technical Background Social Requirement
Indicator for Biomass Energy Introduction 5.95
Million kl (FY2010)
Utilization of Unused Sources

• Evolution of Biotechnology
• Research on New Reaction Fields (Supercritical
• Technology)

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Miniaturization, Higher-Efficiency and Higher
Device Performance
(Note) Total Sum of Indicator for New Energy
Introduction 19.10 Million kl (FY2010)

• Environmental Issues (CO2 emission reductions)
• Waste Problems (Shortage of Final Disposal
• Sites, Dioxin Generation with
• Incineration Disposal, Ban on Ocean Dumping

Reference Advisory Committee for Natural
Resources and Energy, "Report of Working Party
on New Energy, etc.
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Expanded Application of Biomass Energy Scenario
2010
2005
2002
Diffusion Stage
Application Stage
Technology development, demonstration test
Development of high efficiency biomass
conversion technology
Higher efficiency conversion and lower cost.
Conversion technology
Indicator applications for 2010 Power
generation 340,000 kl Heat 670,000 kl Black
liquor and scrap wood 4,940,000 kl
Demonstration test of unused energy
Practical use and diffusion promotion
Application, Full-scale market expansion
Measures aiming for application and diffusion
Deciding regional vision
Project formation promotion businesses from
regions
Application support (support for local
governments and the public sector)

Overall action through cooperation of each
ministry, without limitation to energy
utilization based on Biomass Nippon Strategy
Maintenance of infrastructure on software side
(system side)
Putting it into practice, diffusion
Examination of liquid fuel utilization
RPS Law (2003)
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Scenario for Practical Application and Diffusion
of Fuel Cells
2020
2002
2005
2010
Ground work and technology demonstration stage
Introductory stage
Diffusion stage
Market will naturally grow and expand
Accelerate introduction
Initial introduction of fuel cell vehicle and
stationary fuel cells
Firm Activity
Year 2020 Fuel Cell Vehicles 5,000,000 Stationar
y Fuel Cells 10GW
Year 2010 Fuel Cell Vehicles 50,000 Stationary
Fuel Cells 2.2GW
Effort until around 2005 will be very important
for future stages
Promoting Introduction (Public sectors and FC
industries will adopt FCVs)
Commer-cialization
Policy on accelerating Introduction
Promoting Commercialization
Verification Test (20022005) (Demonstration
program on FCV road test, hydrogen station, and
stationary fuel cells)
Fuel supply system
Establishment of fuel supply system mainly by the
private sector
Stepwise Installment
Review of Regulations

Soft Infrastructure
Millennium Project (20002004) Establishment of
standards, International harmonization
RD on fuel cells RD on hydrogen utilization
RD
RD on basic factors that contribute further to
improving performance and cost reduction
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New Activities

• Major Focus areas in New/Renewable Energy RD
• - PV ?Cost through Thin Film Technology
• Breakthrough in Performance
  Durability in Dye-Sensitized PV Cells
• - Biomass ?Cost ?Durability through
  Simplification of Systems
• - Wind ?Operating ratio in Japanese Wind
  condition
• Validation of Necessary Strength
• - FC ?Durability in System Operation ?Cost
  through Largescale Demonstration
• 2. PV Roadmap Toward 2030
• Target PV Cumulative Installed Capacity 100GW
  (2030),
• PV Power Generation to
  supply 50 of Residential Electricity
• Consumption (10 of Total
  Electricity Consumption)
• PV Electricity Cost 7
  Yen/kWh (2030) (vs. 49 Yen/kWh(2002))
• PV Module Production Cost 50 Yen/W
  (2030)
• http//www.nedo.go.jp/english/informations/1
  61027/pv2030roadmap.pdf

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New Activities(contd)

• New Project Proposals for FY2005 (Examples)
• PV RD Pj. for Technologies to Accelerate
  Introduction of PV Power Generation System to the
  Market
• (1/2 Subsidy for Development Cost, JPY
  2.15B for 3 years)
• Solar Thermal RD Pj. for Innovative Use of
  Solar Thermal Energy Systems (JPY 1.50B for 3
  years)
• FC Strategic RD Pj. for PEFC Systems for
  Practical Use
• (JPY 5.45B) (more focus on systematic
  development)
• Hydrogen RD Pj. for Fundamental Technology for
  Hydrogen Society
• (JPY 3.58B) (focus on safety, codes
  standards)

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New Activities(contd)
4. New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at
EXPO 2005 Welcome!!
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New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO
2005
Electric Power System
Electric Power Network at Expo
Japanese Government Pabvilion
PV 330kW
SOFC(50kW)
Absorption chiller
NAS Battery System 500kW
Transformer Equipment
PAFC(800kW)
Absorption chiller
Methane Fermentation System
MCFC(350kW)
Absorption chiller
Waste (4.8 t/d)
Cool Water
Woodchips Plastic
Heat
(20kg/h)
Granulation
Absorption chiller
High-temperature Gasification System
Air Conditioner
MCFC(370kW)
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(City Gas)
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Conclusions

• Japans energy supply structure is fragile.
• 2. Diversification of energy supplies and
  decrease in energy demands are crucial.
• 3.New / renewable energy is important though the
  market share is rather small.
• 4.PV, Biomass, Wind, FC Hydrogen Important
  RD areas.

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Thank you for your attention.
More Info http//www.nedo.go.jp/index.html
(Jpn) http//www.nedo.go.jp/english/index
.html (Eng) E-mail shindo_at_nedodc.org
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