CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

1
CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
SCOTLANDS POPULATION

• John Randall
• Registrar General for Scotland
• INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE

30 October 2002
2
OUTLINE OF TALK

• OVERALL POPULATION CHANGE
• MIGRATION
• BIRTHS
• DEATHS
• CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE
• MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES
• KEY ISSUES

3
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION,
1861-2021
projected
4
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION
1981-2021
5
POPULATION CHANGE 1981-2001
6
PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN EU COUNTRIES
2000-2020
7
POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNCIL AREA 1981-2001
8
SCOTLAND NATURAL CHANGE AND NET MIGRATION
1951-2001
9
SCOTLAND NET MIGRATION 1951-2001
10
SCOTLAND NET MIGRATION WITH REST OF
UK/OVERSEAS 1951-2001
11
SCOTLAND NET MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000
POPULATION FOR HEALTH BOARD AREAS 1991-2001
12
SCOTLAND MIGRATION TO AND FROM THE REST OF THE
UK BY AGE IN 2000
13
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED BIRTHS AND
DEATHS 1951-2021
Projected
14
SCOTLAND BIRTHS 1901-2001
15
SCOTLAND BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN BY AGE
16
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES 1951-2001
17
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR EU COUNTRIES IN 2000
18
SCOTLAND DEATHS 1901-2001
19
SCOTLAND STILLBIRTH, PERINATAL AND INFANT DEATH
RATES 1951 - 2001
20
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED EXPECTATION OF
LIFE AT BIRTH 1950-2040
Projected
21
ESTIMATED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH IN EU
COUNTRIES 1999
Source ONS, Eurostat
22
SCOTLAND DEATHS BY SELECTED CAUSES 1991 - 2001
23
AGE-ADJUSTED MORTALITY RATES BY SELECTED CAUSE IN
2000
MALES
FEMALES
24
STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATES BY COUNCIL AREA IN
2001
25
SCOTLAND CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 1981-2001
-23
-23
20
20
-18
-18
11
11
-2
29
29
26
SCOTLAND PROJECTED CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE
2000-2021
27
SCOTLAND POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX IN 2001
MALES
FEMALES
28
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED AGE STRUCTURE
1901-2031
Scotland 1951
Scotland 1911
MALES
FEMALES
MALES
FEMALES
Scotland 2001
Scotland 2031
MALES
FEMALES
FEMALES
MALES
29
SCOTLAND ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEPENDENCY
RATIOS 1951-2021
Total Dependency Ratio
projected
60
Under 16
30
SCOTLAND MARRIAGES 1951-2001
31
SCOTLAND MARRIAGES BY MARITAL STATUS OF PERSONS
MARRYING 1951-2001
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
32
SCOTLAND MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY 1951-2001
33
SCOTLAND DIVORCES 1952-2001
34
KEY ISSUES

• DECLINING POPULATION
• GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE
• AGEING POPULATION
• LOW FERTILITY
• RELATIVELY HIGH MORTALITY
• REDUCING MIGRATION LOSS

35
CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
SCOTLANDS POPULATION

• John Randall
• Registrar General for Scotland
• INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE

30 October 2002