Preventing a Workforce Meltdown Agenda

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Preventing a Workforce Meltdown Agenda

• Tech Breakthroughs
• The 2010 Meltdown
• Current Strategies Wont Work
• Solutions
• 1) Community Activism
• 2) Pragmatism
• 3) Cultural Change

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Technology Reality Check

• Over the past 20 years technology has been
  five times more powerful than globalization.
• William Cline
• Institute for International
• Economics

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II. The 2010 Meltdown

• U.S. Workforce between 2010 2020
• 70 Million retire from the workforce
• 40 Million enter the workforce
• Source U.S. Department of Labor, 2005.

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Growth of U.S. Population Age 65
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Aging by Occupations
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Annual Growth Rates ofU.S. Labor Force 1950-2030
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Median Age in Selected Countries(2000, 2025,and
2050)

• 2000 2025 2050
• United States 35.5 39.3 40.7
• France 37.6 43.3 45.2
• Germany 40.1 48.5 50.9
• Japan 41.2 50.0 53.1
• China 30.0 39.0 43.8
• India 23.7 31.3 38.0

Source United Nations, 2001
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90 Million American Workers

• Lack
• Reading
• Writing
• Math
• Skills to do their jobs properly

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High School Graduation Rates U.S. Rank among 30
Industrialized Nations

• Age Groups U.S. Rank
• 55-64 1st
• 34-44 5th
• 25-34 9th

Source OECD, 2005
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What Does It Mean To Be

• A Skilled Person
• In America?

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• 1952 Six or more years of school (Census
  Bureau)
• 1960 Eighth-grade education (U.S. Office of
  Education)
• 21st Century High school education plus (U.S.
  Office of Education the Conference Board)

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National Adult Literacy Assessments1992/2003
Prose Results Compared

• Adult Pop. 2003
• Levels 92/03 Total 222 Million
• I. Below Basic 14/14 31M
• II. Basic 28/29 64M
• Subtotal 95M

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National Adult Literacy Assessments1992/2003
Prose Results Compared

• Adult Pop. 2003
• Levels 92/03 Total 222 Million
• III. Intermediate 43/44 98M
• (Moderately Challenging)
• IV. Proficient 15/13 29M

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National Adult Literacy Assessments

• At Proficient Prose Literacy Level
• 4-year College Graduates
• Post-Graduate Degreed
• 1992 2003
• 91 72
• Source U.S. Department of Education (NCES
  2006-470)

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2003 NAAL Results

• College Student Quantitative Literacy
• Students at Basic Level
• 2 yr. degreed 30
• 4 yr. degreed 20
• Trouble calculating a restaurant bill or gas
  mileage for a car trip.

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Test Score ComparisonsAmerican Adult Ranking
Among 17 Industrialized Nations

• Score U.S. Rank
• Top 10 3rd
• Top 30 5th
• Average 10th
• Bottom 30 11th
• Bottom 10 15th
• Source Educational Testing Service

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Time Bomb in the Workforce American Ranking
Among the 17 by Age

• Age U.S. Rank
• 55-65 yrs 5th
• 46-55 yrs 8th
• 36-45 yrs 8th (tie)
• 26-35 yrs 15th
• 16-25 yrs 14th
• Source Business Week, February 25, 2002.

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U.S. Workforce

• Smart People (25)
• The Walking Dead (25)
• Techno-Peasants (50)

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U.S. Smart People Deficits

• Year Deficits
• 2010 5M1
• 2020 12-17M2
• 2030 35M3

1U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005 2Anthony P. Carnavale,
2002 3Manpower, 2001
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U.S. Jobs Shifts 2000-2020(In Millions)

• Job Categories 2000 2010 2020
• Professionals/Executives 44 52
  60
• Sales, Technical 42 50 60
• Tech Support/ Skilled Craft 22 29
  43
• Low End Service 20 25 27
• Other Low Skill Jobs 24 21 17

Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005
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Predicted Labor Shortages

• By 2010
• 1,000,000 Nurses
• 50,000 Clinical Pathologists
• 50,000 Auto Mechanics
• 1,000,000 Math, Science Special
  Teachers
• 1,000,000 Computer Engineers Support
• Personnel

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Predicted Labor Shortages

• By 2012
• 1,000,000 Skilled Trades Workers
• By 2020
• 85,000-200,000 Medical Doctors

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III. Current Strategies Wont Work!
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H-1B Visa
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Smart People Deficit 2020

• Worldwide Estimate ? 32-39 million jobs
  Country Breakdowns U.S. 17 million
• Japan 9 million
• Russia 6 million
• France 3 million
• Germany 3 million
• Britain 2 million
• Source All India Management Association, 2003.

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Education Critical Mass Comparison
1UNESCO, Institute For Statistics, July 2003
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Education Critical Mass Comparison
2Harvard University the Urban Institute,
20043OECD, 20044Only Higher Education
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India

• Of the students who graduate from college
• A small fraction read English
• A smaller fraction can speak English
• A fraction of that fraction can speak it so
  Americans can generally understand it

Source Bhagwati, 2005
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Outsourcing
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U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)in 2004

• China and India 13.1B
• Germany and Japan 157.7B

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Reality Check

• China outsourcing
• 344,000 U.S. jobs
• Canada outsourcing
• 1,000,000 U.S. jobs

Source OECD, 2005
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Reality Check

• India outsourcing
• 131,000 U.S. jobs
• United Kingdom outsourcing
• 1,100,000 U.S. jobs

Source OECD, 2005
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The 2010 Meltdown
Globalization
Technology
Demographics
Education and Career Skills
Employment High Wage/High Skill or Low/Wage/Low
Skill Economy Expands or Contracts
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The 2010 Meltdown

• If a countrys workforce contracts and its
  smart people decrease, then the economy will
  shrink

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The 2010 Challenge
Career Culture
Education Culture
Business Culture
Education Prep. and Lifelong Learning
Career and Job Alternatives
Employment High Wage/High Skill or Low/Wage/Low
Skill
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How to get started?

• OVERCOME three clichés

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• Timing is everything(Take action during a
  crisis)
• Its WHO you know(Networking)
• It takes two to tango(Giving up some turf)

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Non-Governmental Organizations

• (NGOs)

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Wanted

• Another Shawshank Redemption

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North Central Ohio

• According to 2000 U.S. census data, the national
  average per capita personal income is 29,845,
  Ohios is 28, 207

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Comparison Income - Education
Source US Census Bureau 2000, U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis
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THE SOLUTION
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• Training Workers in Advanced Manufacturing

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Tier Model
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The Collaborations
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The Collaborations cont.
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There will be NO training cost for

• Employers
• Incumbent workers
• Under-employed workers
• Un-employed individuals
• Youth assessed

who participate in this Pilot Project
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• This Collaboration provides the facilities and
  equipment, the curricula, and the training and
  assessment funds necessary to quickly and
  dramatically improve the industrial workforce in
  North Central Ohio.
• The synergy of these combined efforts will make
  our industrial employers more competitive, create
  new and higher paying jobs, add new wealth to our
  area, and identify and develop our manufacturing
  workforce of the future.

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Potential Participants

• Incumbent workers, unemployed or
• underemployed individuals who meet
• the following criteria
• U.S. Citizen
• Males under 25 must be registered with
  Selective Service

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Eligible Corporate Participants

• Any Manufacturing Employer located in Ohios
  Economic Development Region 6

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Trainee Outcomes

• Increase long-term wage levels
• Increase potential for promotion
• Increase job security
• Increase marketability within the workforce
• Increase skill level

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Business Outcomes

• Increase productivity/efficiency
• Increase customer retention/satisfaction
• Retain local companies within Ohio
• Increase skill levels of employees/potential
  employees
• Promote job growth
• Increase quality with higher skilled workforce

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To participate or for more information contact

• North Central State College [phone]
• Frank Rocks [phone]
• Bob Zettler [phone]
• Crawford County Jobs Plus [phone]
• Richland County One-Stop Employment and Training
  Center [phone]

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The 2010 Solution
Business
Educators
Labor
Parents Students
Government
NGO Intermediary Agency
Liberal Arts Education Career Prep.
Incumbent Worker Lifelong Learning
Employment High Wage/High Skill Economy Expands
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Dr. Edward E. Gordon

• www.imperialcorp.com
• 800-537-8189