Health and Social Care Modelling Group

1
Interpretation of outputs

• Health and Social Care Modelling Group
• University of Westminster, London

2
Outline

• Following the sequence of FLoSC reports
• LoS General Info
• LoS Summary Info
• LoS Fitted Results
• Cost General Info
• Cost Forecast Result
• LoS Technical Info

3
FLoSC Report - LoS General Info

• First FLoSC summarises the data, after some basic
  cleansing
• FLoSC deletes records of patients moving from NC
  to RC

4
FLoSC Report - LoS Summary Info (1)

• FLoSC provides a summary frequency table

5
FLoSC Report - LoS Summary Info (2)

• FLoSC provides summary statistics on
  length-of-stay (mean, standard deviation, etc),
  stratified by type of care and by gender

6
FLoSC Report - LoS Summary Info (3)

• Histograms (should) confirm the exponential
  shape of the LoS distribution
• The time labels are actually interval mid-points

7
FLoSC Report - LoS Summary Info (4)

• The table at the bottom summarises the movement
  of residents

8
FLoSC Report - LoS Fitted Results (1)

• More homogeneous group in RC than in NC
• High mortality in the first few months in NC
• Once past the early phase in NC, residents
  behave like in RC

9
FLoSC Report - LoS Fitted Results (2)

• Very good fit to data
• Exponential shape

10
FLoSC Report - LoS Fitted Results (3)

• Very good fit to data
• Exponential shape
• Much sharper early decline captured by the
  mixture of two exponentials

11
FLoSC Report - Cost General Info (1)

• First FLoSC summarises the number of residents in
  the care system (RC and NC) on the last date of
  the data availability period (7 Sep 2007)

12
FLoSC Report - Cost General Info (2)

• FLoSC provides other LoS statistics on those in
  care at the last date of the data availability
  period

13
FLoSC Report Cost Forecast Result (1)

• First FLoSC summarises your cost input data

14
FLoSC Report Cost Forecast Result (2)

• Predict cost of known commitments quarterly
• Known commitment residents already in system

Costs amount to nearly 7.5m to the end of the
current financial year (1 Apr 2008), and almost
11m for the following financial year
15
FLoSC Report Cost Forecast Result (3)

• Costs are also broken down by type of care

16
FLoSC Report - LoS Technical Info
These are the parameters used to derive
information on residents movements and costs
forecasts
17

• THANK YOU
• Questions?
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