Title: Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER
1Wyoming Pipeline AuthorityCalpine
CorporationKEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER
- COLIN COE
- DIRECTOR, FUELS
2CALPINE OVERVIEW
3FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT
- Certain of the information discussed in this
presentation may contain forward-looking
statements regarding future events or the future
financial performance of Calpine Corporation. We
wish to caution you that these statements are
only estimates and that actual events or results
may differ materially. We refer you to the
documents the Company files from time to time
with the Securities and Exchange Commission,
specifically the Companys most recent Annual
Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form
10-Q. These documents contain and identify
important factors that could cause the Companys
actual future results to differ materially from
those contained in such forward-looking
statements.
4FOCUSED STRATEGY
- North America Power Markets
- Modern, Gas-Fired Plants
- Wholesale Markets
- Balanced Gas / Power Portfolio
5To Paraphrase Mark Twain.rumors of our death
- 2001 provides a challenging year
- Weak Economy poor spark spreads
- The Enron shock affects confidence
- Equity Financing option vanishes
- Debt Financing Challenges
- But we have survived what doesnt kill you
makes you stronger
6Spark Spreads an overview
- Efficiency Factor Heat Rate
- 7000 HRt vs 10,000 HRt per hour
- Gas price x my HRt my cost
- 7000 HRt x 5.00 35 MW
- If market is a 10,000 HRt 50 MW
- My spark spread is 50 35 15
- 15/MW/hr x 24 x 500 MW 180k
- 84,000 MMBtu/d vs 120,000/day
7FINANCIAL GROWTH
19,046
7,458
8LONG-TERM OUTLOOKREMAINS ATTRACTIVE
- Electricity is a Vital Component of Our Society
- Consumption is Up (1)
- 4.11 - 2002 Over 2001
- 3.48 - YTD 2003 Over Same Period in 2002
- Significant New Project Cancellations
- Continued Pressure on Aging, Polluting Fleet
- Prices Trending Upward
(1) Source Edison Electric Institute
9CALPINES GROWING PORTFOLIO
10CALPINES POWER PORTFOLIO
11CALPINE CORPORATION A PREMIER POWER COMPANY
Largest U.S. Independent Power Companies (1)
27,600
20,686
17,831
15,006
14,441
(1) Source Platts 202 Independent Power
Companies
12CALPINES GROWINGGAS CONSUMPTION
2004 Consumption Approximately Equal to 22 mmtpy
13CALPINES GAS PORTFOLIO
- 1 tcf of Proved Reserves
- Provides Hedge to Fixed-Price Revenue Contracts
- Exploit Proved Reserves
- Value in Excess of 1.3 Billion
- Active Producer Services Group
14CURRENT CALPINE GAS RESERVES PRODUCTION LEVELS
15ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY BARRIERS IN MEETING
DEMANDS FOR NATURAL GAS
- Capital Markets Credit
- Commodity Markets Indexes
- Supply/Demand Perspectives
16CAPITAL MARKETS CREDIT
- Tightened Capital Markets
- Credit Downgrades
- Increased Credit Requirements
- FERC Actions
- NAESB Efforts
- Pipeline Expansions
17COMMODITY MARKETS INDEXES
- Fewer Participants
- Reduced Transparency and Confidence
- Price Indexes
18GAS PRODUCTION -THAT 70S SHOW
Gas Enough for Present Customers,but How About
the New Ones?
Nations Business, July 1971
Natural Gas Users Howl Over Shortages
Business Week November 17, 1973
Were Running Out of Gas
The New York Times Magazine March 19, 1972
19U.S. 2002 TOTAL GAS CONSUMPTION
20U.S. POWER MARKET GAS FOCUS
- Huge Market
- Growing Demand
- Inefficient Plants
- Environmental Concerns
21EMISSIONS
22CONCLUSIONS
- Gas Fired Electric Generation Will Grow
- Natural Gas Production Must Increase
- Pipeline Infrastructure Must be Proactive
- Creative Gas Contracting Needed
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