Infrastructure Investment Management Mike Morrisroe Business Area Manager Water Networks

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Infrastructure Investment ManagementMike
MorrisroeBusiness Area ManagerWater Networks
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Knowledge - Planning - Implementation

• Water Waste Water Networks
• Risk based assessment
• Bottom up approach
• Investment planned at asset level
• Transparent process
• Use of constraints
• Supports Continuous improvement

Implement
Track costs and effects of implementation,
improve data
Infrastructure Risk Management (IRM)
Planning
Knowledge
Optimise using risk - cost service constraints
Continuous base data improvement
3
IRM is a modular approach to optimising
investment and serviceability
PROBABILITY
CONSEQUENCE
RISK


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Burst probability modelSample of predictor
variables

• Length (offset)
• Material
• Diameter
• Region
• Customer density (large variability)
• Pressure (AZNP)
• Customers/metre (large variability)
• Temporal and environmental
• Others not selected we started with 20!

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Burst probability modelMaterial and age strongly
correlated

• Two models were developed
• Current state of pipes
• Future deterioration

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Burst probability modelGood correlation with raw
burst data
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IRM is a modular approach to optimising
investment and serviceability
x

PROBABILITY
CONSEQUENCE
RISK
UITS Duration Model
Impact Methods
Burst Model

Serviceability
UITS Probability
Dependent Customers
Burst Rate
x

x
x

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UITS modelsServicability score depends on UITS
duration

• function of
• UITS events gt 6 hours
• UITS events gt 12 hours
• UITS events gt 24 hours
• Requires pipe-level probability of UITS duration
  to calculate overall Servicability

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UITS modelsRepair durations follow lognormal
distribution
24
0
24
0
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UITS modelsDuration function of material and size
1.0
0.2
0.6
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IRM is a modular approach to optimising
investment and serviceability
x

PROBABILITY
CONSEQUENCE
RISK
UITS Duration Model
Impact Methods
Burst Model

Serviceability
UITS Probability
Dependent Customers
Burst Rate
x

x
x

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MWHSoft Developed The InfoWater Pipe/Valve
Criticality Module (VCM)
The VCM module automatically assesses the
criticality of each asset on the network model
during a single batch run
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Pipe/Valve Criticality Theory

• Each valve can be operated to shut in an area of
  the network upstream or downstream of the valve
  (known as pounds)
• The upstream or downstream pounds may have a
  different customer impact
• If the valve fails to operate then both areas
  (combined pound) will need to be closed in to
  isolate the network

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Identifies Affected Properties
Properties Affected By Valve Closures
Isolated, No Water Or Low Pressure
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Assigning impact - five customer types

• Five customer types
• Geo-referenced
• Assigned to mains
• Grouped by pound (see later)
• OPA Properties D1 D2 D3 D4 D5

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Identify Critical Assets
HIGH IMPACT ASSETS AS A OF ALL ASSETS
Sum of Isolated, No Water Low Pressures
Properties Valves With Initial Flow And No Flow
10000
8000
All Assets Diameter gt 200mm Diameter gt 450mm
6000
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES AFFECTED
4000
2000
0
4.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
10.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
6.0
8.0
PROPORTION OF ALL ASSETS
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IRM is a modular approach to optimising
investment and serviceability
x

PROBABILITY
CONSEQUENCE
RISK
UITS Duration Model
Impact Methods
Burst Model

Implement Plan gt Serviceability
Serviceability
UITS Probability
Dependent Customers
Burst Rate
x

x
x

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Many GIS elements make a pipe string

• Pipe strings
• Same diameter
• Same material
• Same age
• Same contractor
• Same ground conditions
• Same lifetime pressure
• Connected elements
• Same deterioration rate?
• Same replacement date?
• Intelligent cohorts?

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Risk at GN pipe level
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Selected Pipes (superstrings)
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Superstrings are suboptimal but in reality
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Optimised Capital Expenditure
Serviceability
Budget
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Knowledge - Planning ImplementationBusiness as
Usual
Implement
Infrastructure Risk Management (IRM)
Planning
Knowledge
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Infrastructure Investment ManagementMike
MorrisroeBusiness Area ManagerWater Networks
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Acknowledgements

• Scottish Water Mark Petrie, Greg Hay
• Thames Water Rob Casey
• MWH Tim Watson, Chris Bros, Robert Gaskin
• MWHSoft Paul Boulos