Tim Petry

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Sheep and Lamb Market OutlookFebruary 2006

• Tim Petry
• Livestock Economist
• www.ag.ndsu.edu/aginfo/lsmkt/livestock.htm

02-14-06
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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BREEDING EWES - ONE YEAR OLDER JANUARY
1, 2006(1000 Head)
New England States
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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U.S. Drought Monitor
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CHANGE BREEDING EWES - ONE YEAR OLDER
JANUARY 1, 2005 TO JANUARY 1, 2006(1000
Head)
New England States
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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CHANGE BREEDING EWES - ONE YEAR OLDER
JANUARY 1, 1997 TO JANUARY 1, 2006(1000
Head)
New England States
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Production, Imports and Choice Slaughter Lamb
Prices, 1990-2006
Source Economic Research Service, USDA. Note
2005 and 2006 are forecasts.
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data
Source USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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• SF_LS331
• Sioux Falls, SD
  Thu Feb 9, 2006
  USDA-SD Ag Market News
• St. Onge-Newell Sheep Yards, Newell, SD
• Receipts 224 Last Week 202 Year Ago
  768
• Receipts shortened by late cancellation. Trends
  not applicable due to light receipts not enough
  numbers in any weight group. Today's receipts
  about 47 percent slaughter ewes 25 percent
  feeder lambs 15 percent aged bucks and 13
  percent slaughter lambs. Next week's auction
  expects 80 head of short solid-short term ewes to
  lamb the end of Feb. and 30 head of yearling ewes
  to lamb March 5 plus the usual run of slaughter
  sheep.
• Slaughter Lambs Wooled Choice 2-3
• Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range
  Avg Price
• 14 123 123 81.00
  81.00
• 6 136 136 74.00
  74.00
• 9 163 163 65.00
  65.00
• Slaughter Ewes Good 2-3
• Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range
  Avg Price
• 32 184 184 48.50
  48.50
• Slaughter Ewes Good 3-4
• Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range
  Avg Price
• 20 220 220 41.25
  41.25

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2006 Slaughter Lamb Fundamentals

• Lamb weights?
• Production increase?
• weather / ewe lamb retention
• Imports?
• Australia
• weather, beef and Japan, exchange rate
• New Zealand
• EU
• Rack prices?
• 05 increase
• Will immigrants diets become Americanized?
• goat, longer run

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U.S./Australia Foreign Exchange Rate U.S.
Dollars to One Australian
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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2006 Prices
LRP?
Livestock Marketing Information Center

• follow seasonal patterns
• historically good
• decline to 04 levels

Livestock Marketing Information Center
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Questions?