Londons housing market

1
Londons housing market
for East London Housing Partnership

• Alan Benson GLA - 19th July 2004

2
Overview

• Key strategic drivers
• Housing demand and supply
• Housing Requirements Study
• Sub-regional Strategy Support Studies
• Housing Capacity Study
• Housing Market Assessment
• Barker Review

3
Setting housing targets
Policy making target setting
Housing Requirements
Housing Capacity
Sustainable Communities Objectives
Development Economics
4
London housing the strategic drivers

5
London demography
6
London migration
7
Strategic drivers

• Supply failing to meet demand
• Homelessness and overcrowding at record levels
• Key Workers priced out of market
• Special Needs not met
• Need for
• Increased supply
• Mixed communities
• Greater density
• Better design
• Improve existing stock

8
London housing requirement study
DRAFT RESULTS

9
Health warning
DRAFT RESULTS

• It is
• still a draft report
• tenure neutral
• assessing needs not aspirations
• assuming a perfect fit can happen
• It is not
• available at sub-regional level yet
• just about new supply
• just about the sums

10
Background
DRAFT RESULTS

• Unique regional study
• Based on London Household Survey - 8,200
  interviews
• Integrated with secondary information
• Methods based on existing best practice
• Better quality secondary data at regional level
• Template for other regions and sub-regions
• Problems controversies
• Competing interests
• Methodological circularity uncertain household
  formation
• Fluid housing market boundaries

11
Methodology in a nutshell
DRAFT RESULTS

• Existing households in unsuitable housing
• - Affordability assessment in situ solutions
• Established households in need
• Household formation, migration transfers
• Annual housing requirements
• - Annual housing supply
• Annual housing shortfall

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London housing requirements study
DRAFT RESULTS

• Stage 1. Identifying the backlog

13
Hholds in unsuitable housing
DRAFT RESULTS
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Non new supply solutions
DRAFT RESULTS

• Established hholds in unsuitable housing
  560,000
• Less needs that can be met in-situ
  -318,200
• Less those likely to leave London
  -48,800
• Less households moving into care
  -3,500
• Less households able to afford
  -43,400
• Established households in
• Housing Need 146,100

15
Established hholds in need
DRAFT RESULTS
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Existing Housing Need
DRAFT RESULTS

• Existing hholds in housing need
• Homeless hholds in hostels, BB or other
  non-traditional housing
• Homeless households in temporary PSL housing
• Concealed hholds needing independent homes
• Total existing need

146,100 16,400 18,400 86,900 267,800
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Existing Housing Need
DRAFT RESULTS

• 1. Housing need
• Intermediate Housing
• Social Rented Housing
• 2. Shortfall (after transfers)
• Intermediate Housing
• Social Rented Housing
• 3. Less market housing vacated
• 4. Net shortfall

267,800 77,800 190,000 170,000 77,200 92,900 -66
,700 103,300
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London housing requirements study
DRAFT RESULTS

• Stage 2. Identifying future need

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Housing Market Flows 2002-2012
DRAFT RESULTS
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DRAFT RESULTS
Housing Requirement 2002-12

• Gross requirement
• Market Housing
• Intermediate Housing
• Social Rented Housing
• 10-Year total
• Net requirement
• Market Housing
• Intermediate Housing
• Social Rented Housing
• 10-Year total

2,161,600 609,000 776,600 3,520,200 121,100 24
,500 207,900 353,500
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London housing requirements study
DRAFT RESULTS

• Stage 3. The key results

22
Net tenure requirement
DRAFT RESULTS
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Net bedsize requirement
DRAFT RESULTS
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Net bedsize/tenure mix
DRAFT RESULTS
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The key differences local needs assessments vs
HRS

• Where you start from determines where you go
• The affordability assessment
• Sub-regional lowest quartile house prices
• Private rented as intermediate solution
• In-situ solutions
• Reuse of temporary accommodation
• No double counting concealed households
• Constrained demographic projections

26
Sub-regional strategy support studies

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Strategy support studies

• Based on existing London borough housing needs
  studies
• Assessing housing needs of range of groups/
  interests at sub-regional and regional levels

• Not provision requirements but informs policy
  development
• Identifies relativities between different groups
• Joint project between GLA, ALG, and sub-regional
  officers group

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Strategy support studies

• Detailed analyses of
• BME communities
• Special needs and requirements
• Dynamics of migration
• Extent/nature of over- and under-occupation
• Other possible issues
• Intermediate housing and key workers, Private
  sector stock conditions, Concealed and potential
  households, Quality of, and satisfaction with,
  local environment, Housing affordability, Benefit
  take-up

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Housing capacity study

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Housing capacity study

• Identifies additional housing capacity to achieve
  30,000 homes per annum
• Increases densities in areas with good transport
  
• Identifies capacity in the Thames Gateway and
  models the impact of Cross Rail and Olympics
• All sites in London initially considered, then
  greater focus on fewer larger sites
• Assesses development suitability and yield
• Borough, sub-region and London wide analyses
• GIS/web-enabled available by Jan 2005

31
Housing market assessments

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Housing market assessment

• Step 1 Determine who will lead/support the HMA
• Step 2 Identify the boundaries of the housing
  market and travel to work areas
• Step 3 Identify the regional, sub-regional,
  local strategies that set the policy context
• Step 4 Review the key economic and demographic
  data and trends
• Step 5 Identify the function of the local
  housing market

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Housing market assessment

• Step 6 Understand the relationship between
  'stocks' and 'flows' in the housing market
• Step 7 Consider the future balance between
  supply and demand over a 10-year period
• Step 8 Undertake sustainability assessments at
  local/sub-district level.
• Step 9 Disseminate the findings and consider
  next steps.
• Step 10 Update information and findings on a
  regular basis.

34
The Barker Review

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Barker review - aims

• Increasing supply and speeding up delivery
• Taking politics out of housing and planning
• Micromanaging housing markets
• Housing supply/inflation/EMU the next
  non-housing housing big thing?

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Barker review - proposals

• Affordability targets
• Buffer zones and planning options
• Taxation options
• Merged regional housing and planning boards and
  Regional Planning Executives
• Housing PSAs - its 5 and 6, not 7

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Summary

• Housing Requirements Study
• headline targets for new homes
• Housing Capacity Study
• where those homes can be developed
• Sub-regional Strategy Support Studies
• more informed policy making
• Housing Market Assessment
• evidence base plus for London Housing Strategy