NPCC Review of Resource Adequacy

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NPCC Reviewof Resource Adequacy

• Presented to the
• Planning Advisory Committee
• May 4, 2005
• Westborough MA
• Peter K. Wong
• Manager, Resource Adequacy

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NPCC Document A-2 Basic Criteria for Design and
Operation Of Interconnected Power Systems

• Each Areas probability (or risk) of
  disconnecting any firm load due to resource
  deficiencies shall be, on average, not more than
  once in ten years. Compliance with this criteria
  shall be evaluated probabilistically, such that
  the loss of load expectation LOLE of
  disconnecting firm load due to resource
  deficiencies shall be, on average, no more than
  0.1 days per year. This evaluation shall make
  due allowance for demand uncertainty, scheduled
  outages and deratings, forced outages and
  deratings, assistance over interconnections with
  neighboring Areas and Regions, transmission
  transfer capability, and capacity and/or load
  relief from available operating procedures.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• NPCC has established a Reliability Assessment
  Program to bring together work done by the
  Council, its member systems and Areas relevant to
  the assessment of bulk power system reliability.
  As a part of the Reliability Assessment Program,
  the Task Force on Coordination of Planning (TFCP)
  is charged with conducting reviews of resource
  adequacy of each Area of NPCC on an on going
  basis.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Assessment period 5 years.
• Comprehensive Review Every 3 years.
• Interim Review annual.
• CP 8 Working Group reviews assumptions and
  results and make recommendation to TFCP regarding
  the Area review.
• Each area is to report its findings with a
  presentation and a written report.

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NPCC Guidelines for Area Review ofResource
Adequacy

• Purpose
• The purpose of the presentation associated with
  a resource adequacy review is to ascertain that
  each Area's proposed resources are in accordance
  with the NPCC Basic Criteria for Design and
  Operation of Interconnected Power Systems
  (Document A-2).
• By such a presentation, the Task Force will
  satisfy itself that the proposed resources of
  each NPCC Area will meet the NPCC Resource
  Adequacy - Design Criteria (as defined in Section
  3.0 of NPCC Document A-2) over the time period
  under consideration. This review by the Task
  Force on Coordination of Planning does not
  replace Area and/or company responsibility to
  assess their systems in conformity with the NPCC
  Basic Criteria.

http//www.npcc.org/PublicFiles/Reliability/Criter
iaGuidesProcedures/B-08.pdf
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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Format of Presentation and Report Comprehensive
  Review
• Executive Summary
• Briefly illustrate the major findings of the
  review.
• Provide a summary of major assumptions and
  results in table format.
• Table of Contents
• Include listing of all tables and figures.
• Introduction
• Reference the previous Area review.
• Compare the proposed resources and load forecast
  covered in this review with that covered in the
  previous review.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Resource Adequacy Criterion
• State the Areas resource adequacy criterion.
• State how the Area criterion is applied e.g.
  load relief steps.
• Summarize resource requirements to meet the
  criteria for the study period. If tie benefits
  are assumed, state their values.
• If Area criterion is different from the NPCC
  criterion, provide either an estimate of the
  resources required to meet the NPCC criteria or a
  statement as to the comparison of the two
  criteria.
• Discuss resource adequacy studies conducted since
  the previous Area review, as appropriate.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Resource Adequacy Assessment
• Evaluate proposed resources versus the
  requirements to reliably meet
• projected electricity demand assuming the Areas
  most likely load forecast.
• projected electricity demand assuming the Areas
  high load growth scenario.
• Discuss
• the impact of load and resource uncertainties on
  projected Area reliability.
• any available mechanisms to mitigate potential
  reliability impacts.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Proposed Resource Capacity Mix
• Discuss
• any reliability impacts resulting from the
  proposed resources fuel supply and/or
  environmental restrictions.
• available mechanisms to mitigate any potential
  reliability impacts of resource capacity fuel mix
  and/or environmental restrictions.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Appendix
• Section A Description of Resource Reliability
  Model
• Load Model
• Load model and basis for period load shape.
• How load forecast uncertainty is handled.
• How the demand for energy of interconnected
  entities within the Area that are not members of
  the Area are addressed.
• How the effects (demand and energy) of
  demand-side management programs are addressed.
• Resource Unit Representation
• Unit Ratings
• Definitions.
• Procedure for verifying ratings.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Resource Unit Representation (continued)
• Unit Unavailability Factors Represented
• Type of unavailability factors represented e.g.
  forced outages, planned outages, partial
  deratings, etc.
• Source of each type of factors represented and
  whether generic or individual unit history and
  provide basis for existing and new units.
• Maturity considerations including allowance for
  in-service date uncertainty.
• Tabulation of typical unavailability factors.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Resource Unit Representation (continued)
• Purchase and Sale Representation
• Describe characteristics and level of
  dependability of transactions.
• Retirements
• Summarize proposed retirements.
• Representation of Interconnected System in
  Multi-Area Reliability analysis
• Which Areas and regions are considered.
• Interconnection capacities assumed.
• How expansion plans of other Areas and regions
  are considered.
• Modeling of Limited Energy Resources

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Modeling of Demand Side Management
• Description should include
• In-service date uncertainty,
• Rating,
• Availability,
• Performance and duration.
• Modeling of all Resources
• Description should include
• In-service date uncertainty,
• Capacity Value,
• Availability,
• Emergency assistance,
• Scheduling and delivarability.
• Other Assumptions if applicable
• Internal transmission limitations.
• Maintenance over-runs.
• Environmental constraints.

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NPCC Document B-8 Guidelines for Area Review of
Resource Adequacy

• Appendix
• Section B Other Factors, If Any, Considered in
  Establishing Reserve Requirement Documentation
• Presentation of summaries of studies performed
  within each Area, including references to
  applicable reports, summary of reports, or
  submissions made to regulatory agencies.

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TFCP Follow Up Procedure

• Prepare brief summary of key issues discussed
  during presentation.
• Note where further information was requested and
  the results of such further interrogations.
• Note the Specific items that require additional
  study and indicate responsibility for undertaking
  these studies.
• After the completion of the resource adequacy
  review, report on the Areas plans to the
  Reliability Coordinating Committee.

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New England Resource Adequacy Review 2005
Schedule

• Last Triennial Review was presented to NPCC in
  2002.
• 2005 Triennial Review is targeted for submission
  to NPCC late summer.
• Study results will be presented to PAC in June.
• Draft Triennial Review report targeted for July.

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NPCC Review of Resource Adequacy Cases

• 4 cases will be investigated
• Reference Load Forecast (April 2005 CELT)
• Reference Case Resources and transmission
  according to RSP05 assumptions
• Sensitivity Case Delay of proposed transmission
  upgrade (and generating resource attritions)?
• High Load Forecast (higher economic growth)
• Reference Case
• Sensitivity Case

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NPCC Review of Resource Adequacy Scenarios

• Comments regarding the Sensitivity Case
• All proposed transmission projects delayed beyond
  the study period (2010)
• The Sub-area load increase/effective capacity
  decrease incremental curves will serve to show
  the impact of unit attrition for sensitivity
  purposes. Therefore, may be unit attrition
  assumptions are not necessary.

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Questions?