TRB%20Policy%20Study-%20State%20of%20Practice%20in%20Metropolitan%20Area%20Travel%20Forecasting

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TRB Policy Study-State of Practice in
Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting

• Presented To
• AMPO Travel Model Working Group
• By
• Jon Williams

March 20, 2006
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Agenda

• Study Process
• Study sponsors
• Scope of work
• Committee and its operations
• Consultant work- BMI / SG
• Web-based survey
• Interviews
• Other work

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SponsorsFederal Highway AdministrationFedera
l Transit AdministrationUSDOT- Office of the
Secretary
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Study Objectives

1. Gather information and determine the state of
   practice for metropolitan area travel demand
   modeling by metropolitan planning organizations
   (MPOs) and state departments of transportation
   (DOTs).
2. Identify actions needed to ensure that the
   appropriate technical processes are being used
   for travel modeling

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Study Objectives(Specifically)

• Are there technical shortcomings in the models
  for their intended uses, such as technical
  analysis of the Transportation Improvement
  Program and the Long-Range Plan, emissions
  analyses, FTA New Starts analyses, and NEPA
  analyses?
• Identify actions needed to ensure that the
  appropriate technical processes are being used
  for travel modeling.

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Committee- 13 Members

• Chair- Marty Wachs (Rand)
• MPO- Mike Morris Chuck Purvis Guy Rousseau
  Dick Walker Ron Eash
• State- Laura Cove Mary Lynn Tischer
• Academic- George Dresser Bob Johnston Eric
  Miller
• Other- Tom Dean Dick Pratt

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Committee Process

• Independent, balanced, free of political and
  commercial interests or influence
• Meet 4 times (last meeting May 19-20, 06)
• Gather and consider information
• Hire consultant, BMI-SG, for data collection and
  analysis
• Draft final report- due for review in July
• Pre-pub in fall 2006

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Invited to Present Information Jan 6 7, 2005

• Sponsors
• EPA
• AMPO
• AASHTO
• TRB Committees
• Environmental Defense
• TRB staff

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Invited to Present Information Sept 9, 2005

• Joint meeting with AMPO Travel Model Working
  Group
• Presentation of Web-based Survey Results
• Firing Line MPO comments
• Open discussion

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Invited to Present Information Jan 20, 2006

• FHWA (Transims)
• FTA (New Starts analyses)
• FHWA (Freight and commercial travel forecasting)

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MPOs 50,000 200,000
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MPOs 200,000 1 million
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MPOs gt 1 million
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Surveys Sent and Responses Received(by MPO size)
MPO Classification Surveys Sent Surveys Returned Percent Returned
Small (Population lt 200k) 205 116 57
Medium (Population gt200klt1M) 133 74 57
Large Population gt1M 43 36 84
Total 381 228 60
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MPOs Providing Responses
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Model Characteristics

• Majority of MPOs use 4-step process
• Few MPOs use tour-based methods
• Many MPOs omit mode choice
• Some MPOs do no travel forecasting

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Trip Distribution

• Gravity Model dominant methodology
• Distributes person trips
• Impedance
• Mostly based on travel time over highway network.
  
• Significant portion of large MPOs use function
  combining highway and transit times or other
  factors
• About 1/2 of reporting MPOs apply some type of
  adjustment factors
• K factors
• Time penalties

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Are you working toward any activity or
tour-based approaches to replace the existing
trip distribution model?
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U1. What are the best features of your model?

• 32 of all MPOs stated that the best feature was
  ease of use/flexibility
• 22 said the best feature was that the model was
  well calibrated and validated

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U2. Which features are most in need of
improvement?

• 27 of all MPOs stated that land use forecasting
  was the feature of their model that was most in
  need of improvement
• This is followed by the detail and quality of the
  mode choice model (21).

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BMI-SG Site Visits/Interviews

• Obtain additional information from sample of MPOs
• In-depth interviews of 11 MPOs / DOTs
• Six agencies were visited
• Five agencies completed the interview via phone

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Site Visit Topics of Discussion

• Form and status of current models
• Validation
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Data Cleaning
• Post Processing
• Staffing and Budget
• Barriers to Improvement
• Perceived Inadequacies

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BMI-SG Additional Work

• Data cleaning for web-based survey updated
  tables, figures, and text for draft report of
  9/1/2005.
• Produce context-related cross-tabs and analysis
  from web-based and in-depth surveys, considering,
  e.g.
• a. AQ conformity status
• b. New starts
• c. Corridor studies
• d. High growth
• e. State vs. MPO responsibility
• f. Pricing / tolls
• g. Freight
• h. Congestion / ITS

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BMI-SG Additional Work

• Produce reports for the committee based on
  literature review the web-based survey site
  visits and phone interviews

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Committees Final Report

• Due in Fall 2006
• Consultant Report on web-based survey is at-
• http//www.trb.org/publications/reports/BMI-SG-Sep
  t2005-Draft.pdf