Jeffrey S' Passel Pew Hispanic Center

1
Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center

• Latin American Migrationto the United States
• Trends and Impacts

Expert Group Meeting on International Migration
and Development in Latin America and the
Caribbean CONAPO UNFPA Mexico City, DF
November 30December 2, 2005
2
Immigration Today

• Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin
  sources -- How many? When did it start?
• What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic
  characteristics -- Legal status Labor force
• What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population
  economy -- Origin destination impactss

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Demographic Trends

• Growing Numbers Percents -- Mass migrations
  of 70s
• What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or
  downturn?
• Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of
  unauthorized flows
• -- Mexicans and others
• Maturation of Some Flows? -- Californization
  spreading?

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U.S. Population -- Basics

• U.S. Population (2004)
• Births (annual)
• Deaths
• Legal Immigration
• Undoc. Immigration
• Emigration
• Growth Rate
• (Very Rapid)

• 293.7 million
• 4.1 million
• - 2.5 million
• 700,000
• 750,000
• -200,000
• 1.0

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21st CenturyLatin Flows Emerge in60s
15?
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Additional
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Additional immigrants are mostly
unauthorized and legalized aliens.
9.0
7
6.0
5.2
4.1
3.8
3.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.7
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.1
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Rise, Peak, Decline, ??
Annual Immigration (in 000s)
Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs)
Unauthorized Migrants
Legal Temporary Migrants
Note Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.
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Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --
Percent Approaches Historic Highs
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Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --
Percent Approaches Historic Highs
20 Million (2005)
9
Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend
Uncertain
Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.
10
Legal Status of Immigrants
Unauthorized Migrants (10.3 million) 29
Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Aliens (10.4
million) 29
Temporary Legal Residents (1.2 million) 3
Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs) (11.3
million) 32
Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-80) (2.5 million) 7
35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Based on
adjusted March 2004 CPS)
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Most UndocumentedArrived Since 1990
2000-04 3.1 million 30 (700,000 per year)
1980s 1.3 million -- 14 (130,000 per year)
1995-1999 3.6 million -- 35 (750,000 per year)
1990-94 2.2 million -- 21 (450,000 per year)
10.3 Million in March 2004
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Latin Americans AsiansDominate Foreign-Born
Mexico -- 32 11.2 million
Other Latin America -- 23 8.2 million
Africa Other -- 4 1.5 million
Asia -- 25 9.0 million
Europe Canada -- 15 5.5 million
35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Adjusted March
2004 CPS)
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Undocumented AreLargely Latin American
Other Latin America -- 24 2.5 million
Mexico -- 57 5.9 million
Asia -- 9 1.0 million
Europe Canada -- 6 0.6 million
Africa Other -- 4 0.4 million
10.3 Million in March 2004
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Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues
Millions of Migrants in U.S.
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
31
15
Central America similar to MexicoCaribbean Flows
Largely Legal
Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent
Unauthorized
16
South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others
Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent
Unauthorized
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Immigrants Are Concentrated
New York 11 (3.9 million)
California 28 (9.8 million)
Texas 10 (3.5 million)
Florida 9 (3.2 million)
New Jersey 5 (1.6 million)
Illinois 4 (1.4 million)
All Others 31 (11.0 million)
Arizona 3 (970,000)
35.3 Million Foreign-Born (Adjusted March 2004
CPS)
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New Immigration Growth Centers
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Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading
Texas 14 1.4 million
California 24 2.4 million
Florida 9 850,000
New York 7 650,000
Arizona 5 450,000-500,000
Illinois 4 400,000
All Others 32 3.1 million
New Jersey 4 350,000
North Carolina 3 300,000
10 Million for 2002-2004
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Size of Undocumented Population, 2003-04
21
Major Redistribution Away FromBig 6 Settlement
States
Percent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population
39 -- 3.9 Million
12 -- 400,000
22
New Growth --gt High Undocumented
Note Revision based on adjusted March 2004
CPS .
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Annual Arrivals of UnauthorizedExceed Legals
Since 1995
Average Annual Arrivals of 2004 Population by
Legal Status in 2004
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Mexicans Diversify, Too
58 -- 2.5 million
Percent of U.S. Mexicans
38 -- 4.1 million
29 -- 3.1 million
12 -- 0.5 million
25
Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in US
Percent of County and Countrys Birth
Parentage Population (lt40) in US, 2004
Share of Central American Population in U.S.
9
Note Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
26
Larger Share of West Indians in US
Percent of County and Countrys Birth
Parentage Population (lt40) in US, 2004
Share of Caribbean Population in U.S. 15
Note Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
27
Only Guyana Sends Large Share
Percent of County and Countrys Birth
Parentage Population (lt40) in US, 2004
Share of South American Population in U.S. 1
Note Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
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Characteristics of Unauthorized

• Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families --
  Relatively Young -- Almost All Work
• What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs
  reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of
  Insurance

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Unauthorized FamiliesMixed Composition
Unauthorized Children 1.6 million 14 of
all unauthorized
Adult Men 4.9 million 56 of Adults
U.S. Citizen Children 3.1 million 67 of kids
Adult Women 3.9 million 44 of Adults
13.9 million in Unauthorized Families (2004)
Other Adults 400,000
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Mixed Status Families Common Among Unauthorized
With US Citizen Children 24 1.5 million
families Mixed
Couples 9 -- 540,000
Solo Women 12 -- 740,000
No Children 59 3.7 million families
With Non-Citizen Children 10 630,000 families
Solo Men 36 2.3 million
With US Citizen Non-Citizen Children 7 --
460,000 families (Mixed)
Other 3 -- 160,000
6.3 Million Unauthorized Families (Estimated with
March 2004 CPS)
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Children of Unauthorized Mostly in Mixed Status
Families
Unauthorized Children Only 20 920,000
children Not Mixed
Unauthorized Children with US Citizen
Siblings 12 580,000 children Mixed
US Citizen Children (Only) 55 2.6 million
children Mixed
US Citizen Children with Unauthorized
Siblings 13 -- 620,000 children Mixed
4.7 Million Children of Unauthorized (Estimated
with March 2004 CPS)
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Education Hourglass Diamond
Share of Each Groups 25-64 Population, 2004
Less than High School Graduate
College Degreeor Beyond
Natives
Note Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Men more likely to work Women less
Males
Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004
Females
Natives
Note Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Unauthorized in Lower Wage Education Occupations
Management, Business, Professional 10 (35)
Service Occupations 33 (15)
Transportation Material Moving 8 (6)
Production, Installation, Repair 16 (10)
Sales Admin. Support 13 (27)
Construction Extractive 17 (6)
Farming, etc. 3 (1)
6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004
Note Share of native workers falling in the
major occupation group is shown in parentheses.
Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Most Concentrated Occupations
Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2004
Overall Proportion Of Workers Who
Are Unauthorized 4.3
Farming
Cleaning
Construction
Food Prep.
Production
Transport
Note Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries
Leisure Hospitality 18 (8)
Construction 17 (7)
All Other Industries 17 (43)
Manufacturing 15 (12)
Other Services 6 (5)
Professional Business Services 12 (15)
Wholesale Retail Trade 12 (15)
6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004
Note Share of native workers falling in the
major industry group is shown in parentheses.
Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Most Concentrated Industries
Percent Unauthorized within Industry, 2004
Overall Proportion Of Workers Who
Are Unauthorized 4.3
Private HHs
Hotels
Food Mfg.
Farming
Admin.
Food Service
Construction
Textiles
Mfg.
Note Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
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Incomes Increase with Time in US
Average Family Income, 2003
Natives47,800
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Immigrant Families Larger
Average Family Size, 2004
Natives1.98
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Income per Person Suffers
Average Family Income per Person, 2003
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Immigration Drives Growth
Population in millions
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Immigration Critical for Hispanics
Population in millions
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Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work Force

• Immigration Drives Growth
• Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education
  -- Aging Out of Low Education
• Aging Population, 2010-2030
• Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively
  Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children

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Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration
(esp. after 2015)
Labor Force (in millions)
45
Low Education LF Shrinks --College Degree LF
Explodes
Labor Force by Education (in millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Labor Force
Less than High School Graduate
College Degreeor Beyond
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Migration Flows to U.S.

• Large, Increasing Flows Overall
• Increases Due to Unauthorized
• Responsive to Origin Destination -- Job
  Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico
  Elsewhere
• New Destinations Emerge
• Decrease from Peak in Response to
  Economic Decline

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Impact of New Programs

• Large Numbers (10 million)
• Scattered Around Country
• Mixed, Young Families
• Significant Investments
• Potential Economic Mobility
• Continued High Demand (?)
• Opening Up to New Flows (?)

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For more information,contact

• Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.
• Pew Hispanic Center
• Pew Research Center
• 1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036

[phone]jpassel_at_pewhispanic.org www.pewhisp
anic.org