U'S' DRY BEAN CONVENTION

1

• U.S. DRY BEAN CONVENTION
• Knoxville, Tennessee
• July 20, 2008

James E. Byrum
2
A PERFECT STORM

• Demand
• Diet
• Dollars
• Dry Beans
• Future

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
3
A PERFECT STORMDEMAND

• World
• Production

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
4
A PERFECT STORMDEMANDETHANOL

• 147 Plants
• 8.5 Billion Gallons Annually
• 3.4 Billion Bushels of Corn

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
5
A PERFECT STORMDEMANDETHANOL

• 500 Million Bushels of Demand on Hold
• 24 Plants

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
6
A PERFECT STORMDEMANDETHANOL

• 95 Million Tons of Corn
• 32 Million Tons of Distillers Grain

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
7
A PERFECT STORM COMMODITY PRICES
Michigan Bean Shippers Association
8
A PERFECT STORM U.S. CROP ACREAGE
Michigan Bean Shippers Association
9
A PERFECT STORM 2008 CROP ECONOMICS
Crop Cost/Acre Yield1
Price2 Revenue3 Profit4
Wheat 415 80 10.00 800
385 Corn 610 150 7.00 1050
440 Soybeans 395 45 13.00
585 190 Dry Beans 410 18
45.00 810 400 1 Bushels per
acre/Hundred Weight 2 Dollars per bushel/Hundred
Weight 3 Dollars per acre
Michigan Bean Shippers Association
10
A PERFECT STORM 2008 REAL CROP ECONOMICS
Crop Cost/Acre Yield1
Price2 Revenue3 Profit4
Wheat 415 80 5.50 440 -25 Corn
610 150 3.50 525 -85
Soybeans 395 45 7.50 338 -57
Dry Beans 410 18
30.00 540 130 1 Bushels per acre 2
Dollars per bushel 3 Dollars per acre
Michigan Bean Shippers Association
11
A PERFECT STORMDEMANDFERTILIZER

• Natural Gas
• 3rd Largest User
• 7 Year Growth

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
12
A PERFECT STORMDEMANDPESTICIDES

• Shortages
• Atrazine
• Glyphosate

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
13
A PERFECT STORM DIET WORLDWIDE
DEMAND

• Starch to Protein

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
14
A PERFECT STORM DIET
CHINDIA

• Since 1988
• Per Capita Caloric Consumption
• China up 26.2
• India up 17.3
• Total Daily Calories
• China up 1.55 Trillion Calories
• India up 1.20 Trillion Calories
• Demand for meat and Dairy Products

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
15
A PERFECT STORMDIET WORLDWIDE
DEMAND-POPULATION

• 75 Million New Residents Every Year

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
16
A PERFECT STORM DOLLAR

• 40 Less Than Euro In 5 Years

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
17
A PERFECT STORM DOLLAR OTHER EXCHANGE RATES

• Last 3 Years, U.S. Dollar Declined by
• 36.4 to Brazilian Real
• 18.0 to Canadian Dollar
• 14.6 to Chinese Yuan
• 14.5 to the Euro

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
18
A PERFECT STORM DOLLAR

• 13 Soybeans
• 9in Euros
• Record Exports
• 2007, 2008, 2009

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
19
A PERFECT STORM

• If it is All About Ethanol,
• Why is Corn Acreage Down?

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
20
A PERFECT STORMDEMAND2009 ACREAGE

• Corn ?
• Wheat ?
• Soybeans ?
• Dry Beans ?

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
21
A PERFECT STORMFUTURE

• Dry Beans Prices
• Have to Compete

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
22
A PERFECT STORMFUTURE

• Dry Beans Yields Must Increase,
• or Prices Will

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
23
A PERFECT STORMFUTURECROP YIELDS

• Dry Beans
• 1976 14.25 Cwt./Acre
• 2008 17.5 Cwt./Acre 22
• Corn
• 1976 69 Bushels per Acre
• 2008 149 Bushels per Acre 115
• Average of MN,CA,CO,NE,MI,ID and ND

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
24
A PERFECT STORMFUTUREREVENUE
216 660
Michigan Bean Shippers Association
25
A PERFECT STORMFUTURE

• Dry Beans?

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
26
A PERFECT STORM

• There should be a dialogue between producers,
  end users and consumers about biotechnology and
  advanced variety development techniques for dry
  beans.

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
27
A PERFECT STORM
28
A PERFECT STORMFUTUREPRODUCTION ISSUES

• Roundup Ready
• Insect and Disease Resistance
• Improved Crop Traits
• Consumer Benefits

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
29
A PERFECT STORM

• No Bio-Tech
• Stagnation of Development
• Lack of Scientific Interest in the Crop
• Yield Drag
• The Need for Higher Prices

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
30
A PERFECT STORM

• A conscious decision is better than none
• And it is not about most of us in the room
  today, it is about the next generation.

Michigan Bean Shippers Association
31

• THANK YOU
• QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS

www.michiganbeanshippers.org