Energy Environment Economy: Motivation for Energy Efficient Manufacturing

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Energy Environment EconomyMotivation for Energy
Efficient Manufacturing

• Kelly Kissock Ph.D., P.E.
• Professor
• Department of Mechanical and Aerospace
  Engineering
• Director Building Energy Center
• University of Dayton, Dayton, Ohio

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What on Earth Are These?
     
World Energy Use
World Population
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Converting Heat to Work

• Since pre-history we knew how to
• Work
  
• Heat

• Industrial Revolution to
• Work
• Heat

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Newcomens Steam Engine1712
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Revolutionary Change Transforms

• Economy textile production increases 150 fold
  and prices drop 90
• Place cities grow from 5 to 50
• Family parents leave home to work
• Geography steam ship and railroad
• Technology
• Population

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Economic Explosion

• Pre-industrial revolution per capita annual
  income 600
• Industrial revolution US/Europe income 600 to
  18,000
• Increases 30x!

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Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
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Single Most Important Event in Human History
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Weve Come a Long Way

• Newcomens steam engine 0.5
• Watts steam engine 1
• Gasoline engines 30
• Coal Rankine cycles 35
• Turbines 40
• Diesel engines 50
• Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines 60

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But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged

• 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
• 2. Employ combustion to release heat
• CH42(O2 3.76 N2)CO22H20(NOxSOx)
• 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

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84 Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

• In U.S. 86 from non-renewable fossil fuels
• Source U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

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Resource Constraints
M. King Hubbert
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Hubberts 1956 Prediction of US Oil Peak
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Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972)
Source www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html
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Hubberts 1956 Prediction ofWorld Oil Peak
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Cambells World Oil Peak
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ASPO World Oil Peak
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EIAs World Oil Peak
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EIA Predictions Questionable
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World OilNear Peak Production
Peak production 2015 Based on 1,800 BB World
Oil Resources, WRI 1994
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World Natural GasNear Peak Production
Peak production 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF World
Dry Natural Gas Reserves, Oil and Gas Journal,
IEA 2004
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World CoalPeak Production 2050?
Peak production 2060 Based on 997,506 MT
World Estimated Recoverable Coal, IEA 2004
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Consequences of Peak Fuel

• Rising demand and falling supply rapidly
  increases fuel prices
• Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and
  cause recessions
• Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing
  economies and increase trade deficits
• Competition for dwindling supply increase
  national security risks
• Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes
  (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

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Natural Gas Price Trends
Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Annual Energy
Review 2005, Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2005)
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Natural Gas Price Volatility

• Source Canada National Energy Board,
  http//www.neb.gc.ca/energy/EnergyPricing/HowMarke
  tsWork/NG_e.htm

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Electricity Price Trends
Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Annual Energy
Review 2005, Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2005)
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Electricity Price Volatility

• Residential electricity prices will increase 2.6
  in 2007, compared to 2.2 over the last 10 years
• Those regions with States undergoing market
  restructuring may experience more price
  volatility.  For example, residential prices in
  the East North Central region are projected to
  rise by nearly 6 percent in 2007, compared to the
  last 10-year average of only 1 percent.

Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Short Term Energy
Outlook, May 2007, http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ste
o/pub/contents.html
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Environmental Perspective

• Using energy in todays ways leads
• to more environmental damage than
• any other peaceful human activity.
• The Economist, 1990.

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95 Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil
Fuels
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Global CO2 Concentration

• Keeling Curve Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration 380 ppm

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Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., Is There Still Time to Avoid
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global
Climate?, American Geophysical Union, 2005.
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Molecules with Odd Number Atoms (CO2 CH4) Trap
Heat
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Historical Temperature CO2 Correlation
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001,
Summary for Policymakers
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Todays Concentrations Off the Chart
Hansen, J., 2005, A slippery slope How much
global warming constitutes dangerous
anthropogenic interference?, Climatic Change,
Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.
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Result Earth Quickly Warming

• Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

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Time Lags Amplify Effects

• Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change, Summary, 2001

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Warming Fastest at Pole
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Melting Polar Greenland Ice Caps
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Rising Sea Level Low Elevation Flooding
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And the List Goes On

• Drought
• Severe weather
• Mass extinctions (30 of species lose range)
• Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
• Methane release from thawing perma-frost
• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover

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Debate?

• Consensus view from
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
• Every G8 National Academy of Science
• Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306,
  2004)
• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993
  2004 with key words climate change.
• Found 983 papers
• NONE disagreed with consensus position

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Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel Energy
CO2 Pollution
Energy Out
Economy

• Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere
  Filling Up

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Ecological Model of Production
Technical
Biological
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US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American,
September, 2006
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US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., Tackling Climate Change in the
US, Solar Today, March, 2007
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U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr
at Negative Cost

• Miller, P., 2000, Saving Energy It Starts at
  Home, National Geographic, March

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U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Reduce additional 2.0
GT/yr at lt 50/T

• Miller, P., 2000, Saving Energy It Starts at
  Home, National Geographic, March

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Global CO2 Reduction Potential

• Source The Carbon Productivity Challenge,
  McKinsey Global Institute, http//www.mckinsey.com
  

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Energy Efficient Manufacturing Initiatives

• ISO Standards
• 9001 Quality
• 14001 Environment
• 50001 Energy
• Requires energy management personnel and
  organizations within a company to determine
  baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency
  targets, identify and implement energy efficiency
  opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy
  efficiency improvements.

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Government Energy Efficiency Programs

• U.S. Department of Energy
• Energy audits
• Whole plant energy audits by universities for
  mid-sized manufacturers
• Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump
  energy audits for large manufactures
• Energy system software and best practice case
  studies
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
• Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by
  20 by 2020
• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient
  equipment and retrofits.

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Energy Engineering Courses at UD

• MEE 420/569 Energy Efficient Buildings
• MEE 478/578 Energy Efficient Manufacturing
• MEE 471/571 Design of Thermal Systems
• MEE 473/573 Renewable Energy Systems
• MEE 472 Design for Environment
• MEE 499/599 Environmental Sustainability

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Thank you!
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Making Sense of it All

• Chicago City Lights, Photo by Jim Richarson,
  http//ngm.nationalgeographic.com/earthpulse/hayde
  n-text