HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

1
(No Transcript)
2
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
Earth's population 6 billion (Oct 12, 1999)
Every second, five people are born and two people
die, a net gain of three people.
Every day, 250,000 2 x Irvine
This year, 87,000,000 Mexico
This decade 1,000,000,000 China
3
(No Transcript)
4
Thomas Malthus (1798) An Essay on the
Principle of Population

• Populations grow geometrically while
  supporting resources grow arithmetically
• Population, if not purposefully checked
  (preventative checks), would outpace resources
  and lead to unplanned positive checks that
  would return population to sustainable levels

5
(No Transcript)
6
Crop Yield and Fertilizer Input

• Green revolution
• high-yielding crop varieties
• chemical fertilizers
• pesticides
• irrigation
• mechanization

Global Fertilizer use
7
Net primary productivity (NPP)and Carrying
Capacity (How many People can the Earth
Support?)

• Prior to human impact, NPP was about 150 billion
  tons of organic matter per year.
• Humans have destroyed about 12 of the
  terrestrial NPP, and use or co-opt additional
  27.
• Thus we have already appropriated about 40 of
  the terrestrial food supply
• If we appropriate ALL of the terrestrial food
  capacity, the planet could support 2.5 x 6 15
  billion

8
Billions of people
GlobalCarrying Capacity
9
Human dominance or alteration of several major
components of the Earth system

• transformed or degraded 39-50 of the Earth's
  land surface
• use 8 of the primary productivity of the
  oceans (25 for upwelling areas and 35 for
  temperate continental shelf areas).
• increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by 30
• use more than half of the accessible surface
  fresh water
• over 50 of terrestrial nitrogen fixation is
  caused by human activity
• on many islands, more than half of plant
  species have been introduced by man on
  continental areas the fraction is 20 or more
• about 20 of bird species have become extinct
  in the past 200 years, almost all of them because
  of human activity
• 22 of marine fisheries are overexploited or
  depleted, 44 more are at the limit of
  exploitation

10
Coastal Zone Color ScannerGlobal chlorophyll
NOVEMBER 1978 to JUNE 1986
11
The Global Biosphere (September 97 - August 98)
12
Upwelling off Cape Town, South Africa, 16 Sept.
1997
13
Chlorophyll West of Galapagos Islands
Normal
El Niño
14
Gulf of Mexico (23 February 1998)
15
POPULATION AND AVAILABILITY OF
RENEWABLE RESOURCES
Total
Per Capita
1990
2010
Change ()
Change ()
Population (millions)
5,290
7,030
33
Fish Catch (million tons)
85
102
20
-10
Irrigated Land
237
277
17
-12
(million hectares)
Cropland (million hectares)
1,444
1,516
5
-21
Rangeland and Pasture
3,402
3,540
4
-22
(million hectares)
Forests (million hectares)
3,413
3,165
-7
-30
Source Postel, S. "Carrying capacity Earth's
bottom line." State of the World, 1994.
16
Decline of Fisheries
17
Regional population patterns Population density
Consortium for International Earth Science
Information Network.
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
The demographic transition
23
Reduction in childhood death rates

• DDT used against mosquitoes that transmit malaria
• Childhood immunization used against cholera,
  diphtheria, etc.
• Antibiotics used against bacterial infections

24
Rate of Natural Increase
25
Rate of Natural Increase
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
People over 100 years old in U.S. 4,000 in
1970 64,000 in 1990 projected 1.4
million in 2040
29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)
32
(No Transcript)
33
China (20 of worlds population)

• "one-child-per-couple" policy since 1979
• Rewards for having only one child grants,
  additional maternity leave, increased land
  allocations. Children get preferential treatment
  in education, housing, and employment.
• Couples punished for refusing to terminate
  unapproved pregnancies, for giving birth when
  under the legal marriage age, and having an
  approved second child too soon.
• Penalties include fines, loss of land grants,
  food, loans, farming supplies, benefits, jobs and
  discharge from the Communist Party.
• In many provinces sterilization is required after
  the couple has had two children.

34
Chinas Population Policy Children per
woman 1970 5.01 1995 1.84 Population still
growing! Population in 2000 1.3 billion
Projected for 2025 1.5 billion
Use of abortion Forcible abortions and
sterilization Infanticide
Criticisms
35
India
1998 853 million. 2025 predicted 2 billion
36
U.N. Conference on Population (Cairo, 1994)
"Programme of Action" (182 nations)
Goal to stabilize human population at 7.8
billion by 2050.
1. Provide universal access to family-planning
and reproductive health programs. 2. Recognize
that environmental protection and economic
development are not necessarily antagonistic.
Promote free trade, private investment and
development assistance. 3. Make women equal
participants in all aspects of society - by
increasing women's health, education, and
employment. 4. Increase access to education.
Provide information and services for adolescents
to prevent unwanted pregnancies, unsafe abortion,
and the spread of AIDS and sexually transmitted
diseases. 5. Ensure that men fulfill their
responsibility to ensure healthy pregnancies,
proper child care, promotion of women's worth and
dignity, prevention of unwanted pregnancies, and
prevention of the spread of AIDS and sexually
transmitted diseases.
37

• United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
• Programs to improve
• pre- and post-natal mother's health
• access to voluntary family planning programs and
  contraception
• STD and HIV education and prevention
• U.S. funding withheld for many years because of
  UNFPAs support of Chinas policies
• U.S. funding restored for F.Y. 2000 at level of
  25 million

38
International Planned Parenthood
Federation (IPPF)
1. To meet the demand and unmet need for quality
services 2. To promote sexual and reproductive
health for all 3. To eliminate unsafe
abortion 4. To take affirmative action to gain
equity, equality and empowerment for women 5. To
help young people understand their sexuality and
to provide services that meet their demands 6.
To maintain the highest standards of care
throughout the Federation.