Presentation to the Democratic Leadership Council

1
Presentation to theDemocratic Leadership Council

• By Mark J. Penn
• May 7, 2004

2
VulnerableWinnablePersuadable
3
Bush is Vulnerable

• Bush is vulnerable
• His numbers on key measures are low

4
Nation on Wrong Track

• 55 think America is on the wrong track

Do you feel things in this country are generally
going in the right direction, or do you feel
things have pretty seriously gotten off on the
wrong track?
Source CBS News/NY Times, April 27
5
Direction of the Economy

• 53 think the economy is on the wrong track

In general do you think our economy is on the
right track, or is it off on the wrong track?
Source PSB, April 10
6
Bush Job Approval Low

• Bushs job approval is below 50, and net negative

Source - Quinnipiac, May 4
7
Bush Econ Approval Low

• 56 disapprove of how Bush is handling economy

Source Gallup, May 4
8
Bush Iraq Approval Low

• 55 disapprove of how Bush is handling Iraq

• Additionally, half of Americans think Iraq is
  becoming another Vietnam

Source PSB April 10
Source Gallup, May 4
9
Yet Bush Still Even in Polls

• Despite those poor numbers, Bush is still roughly
  even in national polling

• How is he surviving those vulnerabilities?
• Issues Strength
• Personal Strength

10
Bush Strengths Protecting America
Who would do a better job of keeping the country
safe?

• Americans are more confident Bush would keep them
  safe

Source NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3
11
Bush Strengths War on Terror
Bush approval rating on how handling war on
terror.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling terrorism?
Source - Quinnipiac, May 4
12
Bush Favorability

• Americans still have a favorable view of Bushbut
  these numbers are getting worse for him

Source NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3
13
Bush Strengths Personal

• Bush is seen as a likeable, consistent leader
  with moral standards

Source NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3
14
Winnable?
15
Can Kerry Win?

• Kerry can win, but he has some hurdles to
  overcome
• He has not yet made a strong positive impression
  on voters
• Voters have some doubts he will have to overcome
• Voters are not clear on what his plan is
• Voters do not think he has a better plan for Iraq
  - he is just criticizing Bush

16
Kerry Favorability
CBS News/New York Times
17
Kerry and Iraq

• While 55 of Americans disapprove of the way Bush
  is handling the Iraq war, they dont think Kerry
  has a better plan

Source PSB, April 10

• By a 2 to 1 margin, voters do not think John
  Kerry has a better plan for Iraq than George
  Bush. Note how strong this sentiment is among
  undecided voters.

18
Kerrys Vision and Message

• Kerry has yet to define his vision and plan for
  voters
• Universally, voters would rather hear John Kerry
  talk about where he stands on the issues than
  about his bio.

Which would you rather hear from John Kerry?

• His positions on the economy, taxes and security.
• His record and accomplishments as a public
  servant.

Record Accompl.
Positions Issues
Source PSB, April 10
19
Challenges for Kerry

• Bushs negative advertising has had an impact
• Half of voters think Kerry straddles issues
• 1 in 5 are concerned hes a Massachusetts liberal

Source NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3
20
Kerry and Taxes
Do you think that John Kerry wants to raise
taxes?
Wants to Raise Taxes
Dont know
Does Not Want to Raise Taxes
Source PSB, April 10
21
Kerry Strengths

• But Kerry does have strengths to build on
• He leads Bush on key issues

22
Kerry Leads on Key Issues

• Americans think Kerry will do a better job on

Health Care
Source - Quinnipiac, May 4
23
Kerry Leads on Key Issues

• Americans think Kerry will do a better job on

The Economy
Source - Quinnipiac, May 4
24
Kerry Leads on Key Issues

• Americans think Kerry will do a better job on

Education
Source - Quinnipiac, May 4
25
Kerry Strengths

• Kerry is seen as more intelligent and more
  compassionate

Source NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3
26
Persuadable
27
Three Americas

• There are three Americas
• Democratic
• Republican
• Independent

28
2004 Electoral Map
29
Ballot in Purple States
30
Three Types of Swing Voters
When voting in the 2004 general election, which
issue will be most important to you?
Dont know
Economy
Values
Security
31
Economy Voters

• Economy Swing Voters
• 47 of all swing voters
• Kerry leads Bush 39-18
• Equally Male-Female
• More Democratic
• More liberal
• Concentrated in Midwest
• Similar to 1996 Swing I Voters

32
Security Voters

• Security Swing Voters
• 26 of all swing voters
• Bush leads Kerry 40-24
• More likely to be seniors
• Less educated
• More Republican
• Concentrated in South
• More like 1996 Swing II Voters

33
Values Voters

• Values Swing Voters
• 23 of all swing voters
• Bush leads Kerry 40-23
• More likely to be female
• Younger / Non-Seniors
• More Republican
• More conservative
• Concentrated in South and West
• More like 1996 Swing II Voters

34
Presidential Horserace by Gender and Race

• Two key concerns for Kerry White Hispanic Men

Source PSB, April 10
35
Conclusion The Choice
36
Two Options

• Democrats can go in one of two basic directions
• Run a campaign thats main focus is negative
  attacks against Bush
• Advocate a plan for the future with a vision of
  what Kerry and Democrats would do