Recap: Scenario types

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RecapScenario types

• Monika Zurek
• MA Scenarios Group TSU
• FAO, Rome

ASB Scenarios Training Workshop, Chiang Mai, Nov
17-23, 2004
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Why use scenarios?

• Purpose of scenarios
• Information dissemination
• Scientific exploration
• Decision-making tool
• Understanding all factors influencing the future
• Robust strategies that work under different
  worlds
• ? Different process of stakeholder involvement
  in scenario development
• ?Understanding and communicating the main
  assumptions on which people base their notion of
  the future

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Types of scenarios

• Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios
• Baseline vs. alternative/policy scenarios
• Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a
  combination

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Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios

• exploratory scenarios
• present -gt future
• to explore uncertainties/driving
  forces/developments
• to test impacts of implementing specific policies
• anticipatory scenarios (also normative
  scenarios)
• present lt- future
• to investigate how specific end state can be
  reached
• to show how to achieve environmental targets

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Baseline vs Alternative Scenarios

• baseline scenarios (also business-as-usual
  scenarios)
• describe a future development / state in which
  no new policies or measures are implemented
  apart from those already adopted or agreed upon
• alternative scenarios (also policy scenarios)
• take into account new policies or measures
  additional to those already adopted or agreed
  upon and/or that assumptions on key driving
  forces diverge from those depicted in a baseline
  scenario.

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Qualitative vs Quantitative Scenarios

• qualitative scenarios
• are narrative descriptions of future developments
• (i.e. presented as storylines, diagrams, images,
  etc.).
• quantitative scenarios
• are numerical estimates of future developments
• (i.e. presented as tables, graphs, maps, etc.)
• usually based on available data, past trends
  and/or mathematical models.

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Who are the stakeholders?

• Governments
• Local decision makers
• NGOs
• International Organizations
• Private sector
• Scientists
• Stakeholders differ depending on scale
• Stakeholders differ according to their ability to
  influence drivers

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Stakeholders at ASB sites

• Social cultural groups
• (farmers, rural community groups, indigenous
  people)
• Politician military
• (policymakers at various levels, protected area
  managers, government agencies)
• Economic stakeholders
• (plantation owners, aid agencies, producer
  groups, extractivists)
• Other stakeholders
• (research inst., universities, conservation
  groups, developments agencies)