by Bill Gray

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The Role of Salinity as the Primary Driver for
the Atlantic's Multi-Decadal Hurricane Variations
by Bill Gray
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(No Transcript)
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PENINSULA FLORIDA LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANES
1
3
11
5
1982-1994
ATLANTIC THC WEAK
(13 years)
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
1995-2007
ATLANTIC THC STRONG
(13 years)
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
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GLOBE COOLING
ATLANTIC THC STRONG
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
GLOBE WARMING
ATLANTIC THC WEAK
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
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1924-1965 42YEARS 24 IH
1966-2007 42YEARS 7 IH
54
38
55
0.17/year
0.59/year
44
33
85
54
55
54
96
60
59
89
28
04
49
33
47
50
26
45
05
65
92
48
04
44
50
29
60
35
? as frequent
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US Landfalling Major Hurricanes
CO2
0.93 year
365 ppm
0.52 year
310 ppm
39 Landfalls
22 Landfalls
Background 280 ppm
zero
1924-1965 42 Years
1966-2007 42 Years
2050
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SALINITY SURFACE
SALINITY 500 METERS
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Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
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160oW
20oE
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N. Atlantic SSTA
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THC STRONG
WARM
1995-2007
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THC WEAK
COLD
1970-1994
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THC STRONG
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THC WEAK
20
?
1860 1900
1940 1980
2020
Enfield Mastas Nunez (1998)
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FAST
FAST
SLOW
SLOW
Thermohaline Circulation
Rate of Salt Buildup from (E-P) - River 0
Salt Anomaly (S1)
(S1)
(S1)
YEARS
30
60
90
120
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?
In W. Atlantic 5-20oN
SSTA SLPA Trade Winds 12 km Zonal Winds
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?
THC

?
?
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CONCLUSION
Atlantic hurricanes are not significantly
impacted by CO2 increases or by global surface
temperature rises. They are impacted by Atlantic
SST changes due to thermohaline circulation
changes.